The Iceman

Paul created a thread for the 25-26th threat. Since we are now inside 5 days and it looks like it will be a significant winter threat I say we should move all storm discussion over to that thread. This thread will remain for the 2nd storm on the 28-29th threat that way we have discussion broken up.

CMC still north with storm #2, a glancing blow but close to a big storm in these parts. S jersey actually makes out the best. Agreed that we hopefully see the same N ticks that we've seen with this one. It won't take much, really a 100 mile shift N, gets most of us in the game.

Definitely glad I'm up in Hopewell and not down in Levittown for this one. Really could be a huge difference. Looking like the typical fall line kind of storm around here where 95 is the dividing line between snow and a mix. Still I bet most of the region save for S jersey stays frozen throughout or at least ends as light rain. I don't see this being a mostly rain storm for anyone except extreme S Jersey. First guess and this is still 4 days out, would be 3-6" N of 95 with lollipops in the 8-10" range somewhere in the lehigh valley where the mix line doesn't touch. along 95 I would say 1-4" with heavy mixing. Then c-2" with mostly mix and rain south of 95. I understand people want an all snow storm but this is how we get the majority of our snow around here. Front end thumps over to mixing. I'm still excited for this one...

I'm going to start calling you RedJi The EPS mean is even better than the super weenie 00z run. Still widespread mean of 4-6" for the region on storm #1. Then it has a mean of 10-12" thru 15 days. Very very bullish. Means that high are typically a good indicator we are going to have several chances of white. Gotta stay positive! Here's the 12z EPS weenie map mean, that should help ya!

Dude the ukie only goes out to 144... It still has the 2nd storm and it looks better than the gfs did at 144. Extrapolating, that's probably a hit incoming... Also the ukie is solid for most of the forum on storm one. Yeah the northern tier makes out better but the southern tier still stays frozen verbatim through the whole storm. It'd be 2-3" of snow then ice which I think most would take. The ukie would be a great solution for this forum if it came to fruition.

Gfs ensembles are still pretty scatter shot...

Exactly how I feel, let's take it one storm at a time but man is it encouraging to see at least 3 legit threats after this one in the long range. It's been a long time since we've been potentially tracking snow on snow.

Cmc is beautiful for all, that would be my absolute ideal solution for this storm. Everyone gets in on the action. Southern areas see some mixing issues verbatim but see more precip so overall everyone sees at least 3-6". Gfs was a major improvement but still a sharp cut off for our northern friends. Overall though great improvements so far at 12z and that's ignoring how great the long range after this threat looks. Excited to see the gefs.

12z off to a good start. ICON inched north a bit and gives the area a decent hit. Wave 1 is still a little too far south, but wave 2 hits us pretty solid. Haven't seen the clown maps but I'm guessing a solid 3-4" for most places? Good to see the S trend stop at least. I agree we don't want to be in the jackpot this far out, but at the same time a continuing south trend would have been worrisome at this range. 12z tomorrow seems like a good bet on whether this threat has serious legs or not. I don't anticipate many last minute changes on this one, I think once this gets into the day 3-4 range, any changes will be minimal. Just basing this off the last month, the models have generally been pretty spot on from the day 4 range this winter surprisingly. EDIT: Catching up on the ensembles from last night(both GEFS and EPS), there is still a surprisingly amount of amped up N solutions still in play. 12z GFS also just ticked North halting the suppression trend for now.

18z gfs still is a whiff, the para gfs tho is a nice hit region wide!

Not many suppressed looks at all on the eps, that's a good sign.

Gfs/gefs is either going to score a giant coup or have a giant egg on its face. A bit concerning that the gfs ensembles were suppressed like the gefs. I only saw 2 hits on the gefs. Fortunately the eps looks good, much like its op. Not many suppressed looks either.

A bit worried the gfs has squashed our threat for next week. Every time it's done that in the medium range this year, it's been correct. I'll be happy for the mid atlantic crew though, they deserve just as much as us.

Have a nice coating outside. Of course I slept in this morning and missed it fall

Just because you continue to parrot this weird diatribe over and over again doesn't make it true. There is numerous statistical evidence that our modeling forecasting capabilities are much better than 20 years ago and continue to improve each year. It's not an opinion, it's a fact.

PM me, I offered to help Ray(the site owner) about continuing it over in the Philly forum but he said he currently doesn't have the time. I'm good at acquiring the archived forecasts/maps from past events but I don't have the webpage building skills to turn them into a page like that. So if you have the web building capabilities, it's definitely a project I would like to assist on.

Some places may see a coating to an inch tomorrow morning in se pa and central jersey if the RGEM is correct. 06z Euro had it too but not as robust. Maybe a little surprise snow? As for next week, I feel like it's going to be a big mess..obviously still time for things to change but that is a pretty big ice signal at this range. We're still walking a pretty fine line with temps though.. hopefully the blocking and 50/50 pull through and we are just cold enough. I know people are tired of kicking the can down the line but the 28-29th storm looks even better for us. NAO/AO on the rise plus possibly the PNA popping slightly positive around that time frame. Lots of signals for a big east coast storm but obviously what happens with the 26th will effect that. Hard to imagine a complete shutout in the next 10 days, we should see some accumulating snow though how much is still very much in the air. Theres also hints that Feb may not be the disaster it typically is in Nina's.

GFS ensembles show some hope for this on the 20th. 10/31 show a coating - 2" from SE PA and N so a decent signal. Something to watch at least for now. I decided that I'm not going to get negative until the pattern either flips or it's March 1st and we still are in the same rut. I just feel like something has got to break our way soon with the teleconnections in place. I just don't see us being blanked again like last year with the pattern in place. Edit: 12z Euro has a c-2" deal on the 21st too. I think next week we should have a decent shot of seeing some wintry weather. The models aren't going to have a good grasp on the N stream until Monday at the earliest so hopefully things trend our way.

The 12z models are all over the place for next week which is to be expected in this time frame. Ignoring the southern stream completely though, there should be few chances next week for some coating - 2" type deals from the N stream. Obviously the models aren't going to sniff something like that out at range, but all the models have several N stream shortwaves passing nearby on the 20th, 21st, and 23rd. Wouldn't take much adjustment on any of those for us to see maybe a WWA type deal that sneaks up. Like someone said above, things are just boring right now, trying to find something worth discussing

Where you seeing that? I don't see any days that touch 50 around here briefly flipping through the gfs and euro.

@psuhoffman had an amazing post down in the mid atlantic forum highlighting the threats in the 21-31st time frame. Linking it here: I agree with a lot with what he says but I feel a bit more optimistic for the 21-22nd because we are further N than them. Even if it's a 1-3/2-4" inch wave over to light rain/drizzle I think many would take that for the first wave. Then as he breaks down, our chances in subsequent waves only look better from there. Things remained on track today and didn't get pushed back further in time, that's what i like to see. I do believe our patience will pay off!

I'll honestly be shocked if we have a -NAO/-AO all month and don't get a single measurable snowfall. I know it hasn't been cold but it's been cold enough if we could manage to get a decent storm. I think people(myself included) forget the waiting typically involved in a long term blocking pattern though. Probably because they've been such a rarity lately. But think back to Jan 2010, that was pretty much a -Nao/-AO all month and it took us til the very end of that month to get anything. My point is despite our poor luck so far this month, I think we still see at least 1 warning level event by the end of Jan. We are at day 8 right now at our first real threat on both the Euro and GFS..Euro obviously being the better solution. Let's hope it's still there tomorrow. We've had a tough time getting threats from the 7-10 day window into the 4-7 day window without falling apart so the next 24 hours will really determine if this one bears closer watching or not. Overall though, I still don't hate the pattern, and it only takes one storm to get us to climo in our area. Blocking is how we accomplish that.

You said this was a strong nina like a month ago. Now it's solid moderate in your own words. So how isn't it weakening?

They say the big ones are sniffed out at range... Well only 14 days to go til our HECS. It's a beaut of a fantasy storm. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021011300&fh=378