The Iceman

Light rain/sleet in Trenton.

Somehow this storm managed to be below expectations. And my expectations were 5 minutes of snow flurries... complete model failure with this storm.

Eps mean had me at nearly 6 inches for today at one point in the same range. It's really fools errand to get invested in any threat outside 5 days this year. There has always been some feature that isn't picked up on in that range and it screws our chances. The theme this month has been shredded out and south when we get into the day 4-5 range. We ll see how it looks in 3 days...

starting a thread this early. Almost certainly a fail now, just wait for it. It'll probably be 48 hours out but just watch there will be something as we get closer and this will be a good storm for either north or south of us. I honestly don't care what any of the models show this far out. It's fantasy land. Gfs is a light rain storm... That'll be the outcome, lock it in. The euro loves to give blizzards in the day 7 range. It showed one for this Thursday in the same time frame. It'll be gone by day 4 just like the last 2 threats.

I'm pulling for this meso. Fair warning, it's almost always too cold in these events but hey maybe it scores a coup.

I think you'll get that Kamu, you're actually in a pretty good spot to be thumped before the precip dies out. I wouldn't be surprised if you get 1-2"..

Euro is a full blown miller B next Sunday/Monday. Not falling for that again. It'll probably hug the coast and be a rainer for 95. I'm not investing in it until it's 24 hours out. Gfs probably driving the boat on this one since it's the less desirable solution of all the long range models.

Cmc suppresses the wave this weekend and gives us a long duration light snow event. Gfs and icon are still a thump to rain. Will be interesting to see how we managed to fail. My first guess is the first wave shears out over dc before the frozen precip reaches us and wrecks the thermals for the 2nd wave giving us a nice light rain storm. Maybe if I predict how these events will fail, it'll change our fortune... Gotta try anything at this point.

I don't know... @snowman19 was harping on and on in your subforum about how this was certainly going to be suppressed because of the block... what happened?

I bet the models don't waffle one bit for the cutters projected in the long range. They'll probably be lights out with those. Maybe we will pick up an inch this weekend before the changeover to rain...

Considering the municipalities have unleashes salt and brine hell already in my area including side streets, i doubt even freezing drizzle has much impact. You'd think we were gearing up for a major snowstorm in these parts...

Yep, looks like snow tv now at best. Honestly won't be surprised if whatever falls ends up mostly rain at this point as the 2nd wave has trended so far north that we don't even score light stuff with that. What a joke. Yet we need a north trend on Thursday and the models don't budge or shift south.. It's a cruel joke...

Mt holly first call. Honestly may be overdone...

Target winter 2021-2022... Hopefully it won't be a nina.

It's comical how this storm just gets worse and worse with each model run. 18z nam is essentially a non event. Some sleet to begin and then that's it. At this rate, it'll just be mostly cloudy with some drizzle.

Never bet against the euro when it shows no snow. It's right 100% of the time. Gfs is a trash model, just take it out back.

Well looks like we are going to miss Thursday event as well. I'm on the redsky train. This season is cooked... I hope its 70 all of February because this pattern blows

You guys should do well out in lanco... Honestly may be the best spot of anyone in the area.

I wouldn't be shocked at all of we somehow get through this period with nothing more than a coating...

Damn this event has kind of fallen apart the last 24 hours as most of the precip collapses as its reaching the area due to the low transfer. Really now looking like a borderline advisory event for most. Agree with others 1-3" region wide seems to be a good bet. At least it's something... Still some time for things to trend a bit juicier..

Euro is a complete miss with the second storm. Hopefully the eps shows some hope with it. At least we will likely see some snow with storm 1.

Pretty tough forecast at this range. 3-6" seems like a safe bet for 95 n and w but the euro shearing things out concerns me. Definitely would prefer the warmer gfs that brings more precip even if we get mixing issues.

Euro kind of shears the storm out over us... Not much precip at all but the cold is there

GEFS for storm 2.. still several hits in there.. seems to be the ones that are slower with the southern shortwave are able to bring it more N... we'll see

Thanks for starting the storm thread Paul, I agree it was time to do so. Let's hope you bring the good luck, no pressure! 12z gefs individual members.. some big hitters in there but also some misses as well. Still a good deal of uncertainty.