The Iceman

Good to see the ukie actually tick northwest. It had actually shown the bleed se yesterday before any other model so hopefully it leads the charge back nw up to game time

Yeah Bruce has been on a few times this month predicting big snowstorms. He's definitely a huge weenie I hope he's correct though

Para gfs is still a region wide crushing.. this is the new gfs' time to shine!!

My early guess is in line with hazwoper. Except I feel a little bit more comfortable saying 4-6" for Se Pa for now. Warning level event is the baseline. Sucks that it seems like the MECS region wide is off the table but again hopefully this doesn't trend to all out whiff. Don't like the massive shift in guidance. Hopefully it's just one of those blips and the models begin correcting themselves back n and w but unsettling start to 12z to say the least. Another shift like that and se pa is even out of warning snows... I guess I should of know since I said suppression has been the theme all month back at day 9.

Next week's cutter actually looks to set up another very favorable period for the first half of February...

I like your confidence. I'm not sold on 8-12" yet let's get through today. Right now I'd be nervous if I lived in the lehigh valley. Trends with the coastal starting to look pretty Jan 30 2000 esque with the shark cutoff at least on the new nam.

Meanwhile down south, they are performing olympic level mental gymnastics on why the euro is going to be right with suppression while every other model is going to be wrong

Ugh eps mean also south east of 18z but not nearly as dramatic as the op. I'm off to bed, hopefully this is just a blip and not a case of the euro picking up on something before all the other models... Is a winter storm warning level event really that difficult of an ask after an entire month with a -nao/-ao?

Meh the 18z euro sucked too but it was completely against its own ensembles. Wait for the eps before panicking. But if the eps follows suite, damn what a rug pull... But at least I called it in advance seasonal trends and all. Honestly when one model is a complete outlier, you toss it though even if it's the euro. Unless other guidance begins to fold tomorrow, 00z was still a win.

I was trying to do the same thing.. no dice. Have accepted I'm staying up for the euro like a true weenie. Sleep is for summer time couldn't ask for a better 00z suite thus far though. I think the low end imby is the Canadian with around a foot, hopefully we are only talking wobbles here on out and not shifts...

Cmc is going to be even better than GFS. No worries even for the northern crew. Can't wait to see the clowns on this one..

Smoked ... Bit concerned about the northern edge though, can't take many more shifts east but I like where we are at..

I hope my reverse psychology pays off... I've played this one different from the start I can't go getting hyped up now... Though it's hard!

You're sitting pretty Ant. I hope you're getting hype for this one.

Icon is a huge hit for the area through 108 just about 10-12"+ for everyone outside of s. Jersey. We may have to send a snowcat to find Paul if it comes true...his place sees like 30 inches if my clown maps are right. Tell ralph to back off the ledge

You have to think that's a good sign coming from a meso model!

He's wrong every time, I trust a 4th grader with random coloring pencils for our area over DT. He's been brutally wrong with every event the last 5 years in this area.

you got maps? I only am out to 54 on my site.

Howard Eskin says 6 inches in the city if we are lucky on WIP this evening. He said the main show will be Monday but it will likely only be a one day event. Also said any idiot can be a meteorologist and that he'd have his license in a year. Okay Howie...

Sheared out, south and weak has been the trend all month... Hopefully things get better at 00z but this has seriously been the theme the last 4 weeks. Don't have a good feeling.... Hopefully we at least see some snow our of this and it doesn't look trend to complete whiff.

I know it's the 18z NAM at range but it's significantly south of the GFS/EURO/CMC in the same time as well as it's 12z run. Nothing is ever easy here...

@Wentzadelphia are you chasing this one or thinking of staying put? Tough call right now.

8 inch mean isn't anything to scoff at... but honestly what worries me is it seems to be to split camps to get to that 8 inch mean. one camp in the 1-3/2-4" southern miss or scraper while the other half is 12-16" wham bam thank you mams. Have to hope the OP half are correct. Seems to be pretty boom or bust around here but right now with the 3 major players leaning boom, I lean towards that end of guidance right now as well. I don't see this as a 4-8" type storm imo. However there is still time for this to trend towards a nothing burger and that worries me. Let's get through tonight and tomorrow before breaking out the TD celebrations but I like where we stand right now.

Try 2.5 days homie!

I got caught up at work doing things and all I could think about was what the euro looked like... Came back to my computer and let out a YEEEEEEEET What a run! And this is with the euro in it's wheelhouse! The excitement is building friends.