The Iceman

That's a great first forecast imo could go either way for you guys. The ticks nw at 18z were certainly encouraging though, I don't think they're done. Right now it's the 95 jackpot but I've seen so many times over the year that ends up about 25 miles nw of 95. I'm going to guess the same thing here but that puts your guys closer to the ccb.

whoa a MacChump sighting.... this threat may actually be legit what's next, allman15 making an appearance?

I agree to disagree. There is still a fair amount of spread and mt holly has done that in the past and been burned. Better to start conservative and increase as we get closer. Remember watches haven't even been hoisted yet, we are still a good 60 hours out from first snow. Things can change. Plus that map is from this morning when things were even more uncertain. I bet it increases in the afternoon update. Mt holly is one of the best, I trust them.

I just mean it's too early to know where the heaviest banding is going to set up so 4-6" is a good baseline. If it actually snows 36 hours then yeah I expect way higher totals, foot plus, but it's too early to be expecting those totals.

This is dated, but i didn't see it posted here. Mt Holly first call. I wonder if we see them tick up a bit in the next update. Thought the map was perfect though, well done Mt Holly crew!

Great spot with the low location. Definitely further nw than the eps imo Get that baby 50 miles nw and it's game on for a lot of us.

I know very little about these things but wouldn't there be slightly better ratios under the ccb? I totally get 10:1 ratios outside of it but I thought you'd see 13-15:-1 under the ccb?

Next few runs are important, do we continue to tick back NW or do the models settle in from here on a solution? My guess is that the nw ticks aren't finished and the sweet spot ultimately ends up nw of 95 meaning you guys could end up more in the 4-8/6-12" range. We'll see though.

Seriously...if you live in an area where you average like 10" a year, a 4-6" storm is a very solid event for your area. Hell that's a good storm in my books up here...

? Boston gets rocked on the euro. They see like a foot plus. Dc only sees 4-6" though but that's still a great event down there for their climo. Its gotta be a bit disappointing from the totals being thrown earlier down there but they should still be happy...

Busy trying to actually get some work done before the end of the week but that is exactly the euro run we wanted to see! Stop the bleeding se, now time to inch back NW. Feeling great where we are at currently. I'm feeling like 90% safe to begin getting hype now. Let's hope the nw ticks continue up through game time like we saw with the December storm. Many of us will be sitting pretty if that is the case...

I'm in the same boat. My significant other has an important doctor's appointment in the same area that she's waited to get for 2 months so she isn't keen on giving it up. I'm trying to convince her to reschedule though, I think mon morning could be pretty bad. Snow starts in the evening on Sunday so there could be 12 hours worth of snow on the ground by Monday AM. Travel could be a nightmare all day Monday but I'd definitely keep a close eye on things the next 24 hours. We re seeing pretty significant changes still each model run.

Definitely better than it showing a miss intersting how far east it is with the low but the precip shield is much larger than other models.

Good to see the ukie actually tick northwest. It had actually shown the bleed se yesterday before any other model so hopefully it leads the charge back nw up to game time

Yeah Bruce has been on a few times this month predicting big snowstorms. He's definitely a huge weenie I hope he's correct though

Para gfs is still a region wide crushing.. this is the new gfs' time to shine!!

My early guess is in line with hazwoper. Except I feel a little bit more comfortable saying 4-6" for Se Pa for now. Warning level event is the baseline. Sucks that it seems like the MECS region wide is off the table but again hopefully this doesn't trend to all out whiff. Don't like the massive shift in guidance. Hopefully it's just one of those blips and the models begin correcting themselves back n and w but unsettling start to 12z to say the least. Another shift like that and se pa is even out of warning snows... I guess I should of know since I said suppression has been the theme all month back at day 9.

Next week's cutter actually looks to set up another very favorable period for the first half of February...

I like your confidence. I'm not sold on 8-12" yet let's get through today. Right now I'd be nervous if I lived in the lehigh valley. Trends with the coastal starting to look pretty Jan 30 2000 esque with the shark cutoff at least on the new nam.

Meanwhile down south, they are performing olympic level mental gymnastics on why the euro is going to be right with suppression while every other model is going to be wrong

Ugh eps mean also south east of 18z but not nearly as dramatic as the op. I'm off to bed, hopefully this is just a blip and not a case of the euro picking up on something before all the other models... Is a winter storm warning level event really that difficult of an ask after an entire month with a -nao/-ao?

Meh the 18z euro sucked too but it was completely against its own ensembles. Wait for the eps before panicking. But if the eps follows suite, damn what a rug pull... But at least I called it in advance seasonal trends and all. Honestly when one model is a complete outlier, you toss it though even if it's the euro. Unless other guidance begins to fold tomorrow, 00z was still a win.

I was trying to do the same thing.. no dice. Have accepted I'm staying up for the euro like a true weenie. Sleep is for summer time couldn't ask for a better 00z suite thus far though. I think the low end imby is the Canadian with around a foot, hopefully we are only talking wobbles here on out and not shifts...

Cmc is going to be even better than GFS. No worries even for the northern crew. Can't wait to see the clowns on this one..

Smoked ... Bit concerned about the northern edge though, can't take many more shifts east but I like where we are at..