The Iceman

there's a new king in town

Big time jump NW compared to 00z. That model is just plain broken right now.. you'd almost never see the euro swing that significantly inside 84 hours in the past. It's pretty much in line with the GFS now, just with a warmer BL.

Euro says even down toward 95 may have a shot at a coating tomorrow morning with the front. Very little rain for anyone besides s jersey and delaware.

From what I remember from when I was looking into met schools back in 2009, I'm pretty sure Miss St's program was guided towards broadcast meteorologists. That was also undergrad though so I'm not sure if their masters program is guided similarly towards broadcast mets. I just remember their undergrad program wasn't nearly as math/physics intensive as other meteorology schools and they had a more communications background in their curriculum. Obviously a lot can change in 10 years though. I went to Millersville for undergrad in Met and while I didn't finish my degree in meteorology, their professors and staff were all outstanding! I've heard great things about their Master's programs as well from friends that I graduated with..though I don't think they offer a specific masters in meteorology, I believe they offer Masters in Atmospheric Science or something to that degree.

The real 12z icon actually ticked se and is more in line with the gfs now. Interesting how the icon has barely wavered on this storm despite being an awful model it's definitely lead the way so far though. Now let's see what the ukie/euro do. Think we want to at least see the nw trend continue on them since they were so far se.

Gfs pretty similar to 6z. Maybe a tick further N. Definitely not major changes from 6z though. Honestly a pretty good spot to be in at this range since I don't think the n trend is done by any means. Bl temps are already iffy though, going to need the rates to stay frozen around 95 imo

Rgem and nam are game for 1-3" in the lehigh valley tomorrow btw with the front. Even upper bucks and montco could see coating to an inch. Areas that see rain also don't see much of it so we should all keep our packs mostly intact.

You're right, its an old run from tt, good catch

Rgem still wants nothing to do with Sunday. Not even a tick north from 06z. Icon still on board though it's mostly rain for 95.

It's also mostly been low amplitude or in the cod most of the winter. Much different than this wave which may get into high amplitude phase 7. Guidance almost unanimously backing off the big Arctic blast this upcoming week was a red flag that it may have more influence this month than it has seasonally and that the se ridge may not just be a transient feature. If that's the case, the favored areas would be the interior and New England even if we keep the blocking.

The massive cold shot next week is gone, the se ridge is clearly going to be a bigger deal than we thought. MJO phase 7 does favor that in February. Looking like one of those patterns where anything that amps will be mix/rain for 95.

Also the euro shows c-2" with the front on Friday now. Keeps in cold enough to start frozen and stay frozen n and w. No other model is that cold though. Ukie is close though.

Fwiw the new king para gfs is much closer with the weekend threat. Maybe not dead yet, but on life support? Maybe onto something?

Icon still has the Sunday storm lol but the gfs continues to trend further east with it. Along with the euro, I think it's safe to say this one's dead. Next week looks cold but mostly dry after Sunday.

Other than some rain showers, nope

Mt holly wants nothing to do with it: Deterministic guidance over the past 24 hours has taken an eastern shift in a potential surface low track however there`s still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance. I suspect over the next couple of days we`ll see this trend continue as the 250mb jet axis acts as a wall to push the developing low pressure system off shore. However its certainly within the ensemble envelope that we`ll see the low pressure system sneak back inside and towards the coast. So its worth watching for changes but likely the storm will have little impact over the region other than to bring rather cold temperatures to the region. Temps early next week will be running on the order of 10 degrees below normal with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.

Euro folded to the gfs and cmc overnight in regard to this weekend. Next!

Light snow in Hopewell this morning, looks like a fresh coating overnight. It can stop now, I'm over cleaning off the car for the 5th time...

Ended around 10.5" in Hopewell. You guys really caught up last night down there. We got an additional fluffy inch but most of today's fell lighter than compaction/melting rate. Ok storm, but like you said though the sleet really hurt totals and prevented this from being a "classic" around here. Can't wait to get my Davis up here so that I can get LE in events like this, I'm super curious what it'd be here. Guessing pretty similar. 17.5" now on the season, going to need another 2 solid events to hit normal so hopefully Feb lives up to the hype...

Low that close to the coast and it's easily sleeting probably all the way up to mt Pocono.

Don't think bust is the right word but I will say the storm was officially a disappointment for my area and I'll just leave it at that. I said before the event that my baseline was a foot based on the calls of 12-18"+ by the nws (which was upped to 16-22" during the event). Absolutely zero mention of sleet in my forecast until it started sleeting. So with all the hype and hoopla, this one's a disappointment for here. We went in with a chance of historical and came out slightly above average. Less than a foot spread out over 3 days is a solid event but solid won't be remembered in a few years time and with the set up in place for this one, I was aiming higher than solid. Just my two cents.

Winds have definitely picked up in the last hour as well. Nothing crazy but first time it's been noticeable all storm.

Finally some good fluff in the last hour... last time going out tonight. Up to 10" now on the storm.. hopefully the snows being advertised tomorrow come to fruition and we can salvage this event(anything under a foot was a fail in my eyes). Hoping we get up to a foot but I'm always skeptical of light day time snows

I bet levittown finishes with a higher storm total than Hopewell as that weenie band stalls out over them. I don't think that's ever occurred in a miller B but I guess there's firsts for everything...

"Little bit further inland..." What's 100 mile further north among friends? There wasn't a single model that had the mix line anywhere above 195 in nj. And it went 75 miles north of 195. Massive bust in central jersey no beating around the bush.