The Iceman

33 and heavy rain... Did I hear thunder?

31.5 and light freezing rain

2-4" snow/sleet ending as light rain is realistic expectations are this time. Anything more is gravy but I agree with ralph I'm betting this comes north some as we get closer and we see much more mixing than currently advertised. The cool thing is we should thump hard for snow for a good 1-3 hours. Should be a nice topper to regain what we are about to lose tonight. I bet I lose close to half of my 10" tonight. That half is going to be rock solid though come Wednesday.

It's all yours you've been highlighting this period for weeks, it only seems right you start the thread even if it evolved much different than we originally thought.

Thanks for the clarifications Mike, appreciate you taking the time to explain!

Off topic but imo that is pretty asinine reasoning for mt holly to keep the ice storm warning. What is the point of having criteria to meet for the ice storm/winter storm warning if it can be just be issued based on what they believe potential impacts will be? Either it will likely meet the warning criteria and an ice storm warning should be issued or it will likely fall short of that criteria, such as this case, and a winter weather advisory should be issued instead. What's the point of having accumulation criteria to meet otherwise? Or they should just redo their warnings and advisories to include "potential impacts" and scrap accumulation based criteria.

Based on their new ice accumulation map, I'm surprised mt holly hasn't cancelled the wwa's and downgraded the ice storm warning. Seems pretty clear they won't verify now.

If I remember correctly, that year wasn't great for snow cover despite the big totals. We got a big rainer after dec 19 storm like before Christmas that wiped most of that pack, then we had another big warm up I believe after snowmageddon. I'm pretty sure the snowpack was almost erased by the storm at the end of February hit. Then March that year torched. I bet he finished with like 30-40 snow cover days despite the large snow totals

You were literally discounting every other model yesterday because of the euro but okay

It's done this all season long but continue to hug it tightly

B-b-but the euro is the best model by far, how could it fold?

Looks like a lot of mixing on the pivotal clown map

Yup definitely further se with the low level cold air. More amped than 12z too so it might even be colder than that. Won't be surprised at all if we continue to trend colder up to the start time.

I'm unsure what to think in my area. My house runs a good degree or two colder than other areas in Mercer county due to the elevation. I'm right on the border of Huntington county which is under an ice storm warning for .25-.5" of ice. Should be interesting how long we stay below freezing here. I don't envy mt hollys job at all. Could still see it being a nothing burger of mostly heavy rain if precip holds off like the nam or a big ice event Monday night if precip rolls in early like the euro and HRRR. I think it will very much be a nowcasting event and the models won't have a great grasp of the low level cold.

He'll be here... He's one of the regulars around here still. Great dude

Of course the 18z nam ticks warmer. Still a decent .25" icing in the lehigh valley but not much of note down towards 95 and burbs.

Man the meso s are really cold for Monday night into Tuesday. Would be a significant ice storm even down to 95. This one is the most significant but all the mesos drop between .25"-.5"+ all the way to 95. HRRR also is much more significant than the globals with close to .25" frz down to 95. Lehigh valley should prepare for a major ice event.

I think he's including the snow cover from December. He probably had 10 or so days with snow cover then. So new snow cover started jan 30th to present to give the 25 days... At least that's what I think

Euro is 4-8" of snow to ice. All frozen for most. We are about to see if it's back to being king this week. Edit: ukmet is even better than the euro. 6"+ for most.

Cmc is close to all frozen as well. Gfs shifted pretty significantly east as well with the low. Good trends today for an all frozen event Thursday. Tuesday still looks like a washout for most except those in the lehigh valley.

Euro/HRRR is the only guidance that ticked colder. Interesting. Euro still changes most over to rain but much more ice than the other models.

Stuck in mt laurel tonight. Anything unsalted is a sheet of ice including side streets. Worst icing I've witnessed in awhile especially down here. Main roads are salted but you can hear people sliding all over the neighborhood.

Thursday is trending towards more frozen imo. Should be a nice thump at the very least but it feels like one of those 3-6" slop storms that ends as light rain. Tuesday is dead for almost everyone at this point, only thing to watch there is if the precip keeps increasing. New nam paints a stripe of 1-1.5" qpf through se pa that is mostly liquid. Rgem is juiced up too. Should be a mess as that all falls in 12 hours. Going to run right off...

Drove from Hopewell > Levittown > Mt Laurel and it went from nothing/wet in Hopewell, to a glaze in levittown, to actually like .1" of icing down on mt Laurel. It's pretty slick down here.

I'm posting my observations. How can observations have a clue or no clue? It's been light freezing rain all afternoon and there is zero accretion on any surfaces. Sorry that hurts your feelings. Some people get worked up over no reason... Par the course for that user.