The Iceman

Final call: 2-4" N and W of 95 with less the further out you go from 95. 4-8" Along 95 S and E about 25 miles 1-4" along the shore... Will be tricky here, can rates eventually overcome boundary layer? I think 8" will be the max in our area, don't think anyone will hit double digits but should be a fun little event. I expect it to come down at a heavy rate for a good 2-3 hours. Will be a nice nowcasting storm as well with the banding. Make sure you set your alarms for tomorrow morning.

Yep, tomorrow should be a nice refresher to cover up those ugly brown spots

Thanks Mike, I did not know that it was auto generated.

That is my goal for this storm too. 3" with a hour or 2 of fat heavy flakes. Definitely a hard storm to nail down since it is all going to come down to banding with how borderline thermals are. Better to aim low and be pleasantly surprised than vice versa.

Tt maps but I'm sure this includes some of the changeover. Would be very nasty! 3-6" thump then .025"-.5" of ice. Cmc also has a small event on Tuesday for the northern half of the forum. This week should be fun, I see 3 threats this week where we have a decent shot at snow, then we still have your storm lurking in the distance next week. Plus none of the models really show the pattern breaking down any time soon.

Trenton is above it's forecast high as well at 1130. Almost 45 there. 41 up here in Hopewell. Seems like any time the sun is blasting anymore and there isn't a north wind, we just warm up super fast.

This map says to me that nws isn't confident at all for tomorrow. I know it's the low end amount but usually when we are under winter storm warnings this map shows like the bare minimum to qualify for those warnings, like 4". This says to me, there's a pretty large chance at a bust due to the BL issues and they aren't really confident in their winter storm warnings.

Totally agree on all points. I think a narrow 20-25 mile wide area will get 4-6"+ of mashed potatoes under the intense banding but it won't be widespread at all. 1-3" on the grass(snow) would be my guess for most.

New mt holly map with the 6-8" weenie stripe over my house. Edit: don't know why the old one shows when I paste the link in here.

Mt holly first call: Looks good, pretty bullish especially into s jersey. They don't seem to think the rain/snow line progresses past the shore at this time based on that map.

Boom!

Call it weenie intuition on a Friday afternoon but I think 95 is going to get Nam'd at happy hour.

We are torching today... Almost up to 50 in Trenton. Heavy meltdown. We're gonna need that 3-6" on Sunday to refresh the pack.

Incoming on the euro. Every op 12z model has this long duration event setting up next week with Arctic air near by. Right now looks like a classic ice signal but that can evolve based on where the pc sets up.

Philly http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=PA&stn=KPHL&model=nam&time=current&field=omeg

Based on mt Holly's afd this morning, I'd be surprised if winter storm watches go up this afternoon. They seem pretty down on the threat... Seem to think it maxes out as a general area of 1-3" at this time. The long term period will begin with another coastal low that is expected to pass close enough to the Mid Atlantic region to bring some impactful weather. The 00z guidance did not change much from earlier guidance, so will will continue with an increase in precipitation probabilities across the area. All available guidance now brings precipitation to the area, with much of the region at least starting out as snow, with areas along and north of the I-95 corridor remaining mostly snow through the evening, and areas farther south, especially eastern Maryland, much of Delaware, and southern/eastern New Jersey changing over to rain before the precipitation ends. Farther north and west, the QPF amounts are less where temperatures are cold enough for all snow, while farther south and east where the QPF amounts are higher where temperatures will warm faster. So the current snowfall forecast does not have a large range, generally 1-3 inches. If a northwestward trend continues, higher amounts could shift north and westward. The best timing currently is for late Saturday night/early Sunday morning through early afternoon Sunday. By late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, the low will continue to move far enough to our northeast that precipitation will end across the area

Looking like another long duration winter event is taking shape for next weekend. Still a ways out but major signal for multiple waves to ride along the Arctic boundary. Set up screams interior snow, while the coastal plain deals with ice. All depends where that boundary sets up though and that won't be modeled correctly until we are much closer. Pretty good look though.

Overall things look pretty good for a nice 6-8 hour event that drops 3-6" for much of the area with an outside shot of 6-10" in a narrow corridor with the heaviest rates. I don't believe this will be elevation dependent, more so rate dependent when it comes to accumulation.

Can you post it? Only out to 120 on tt. Is it similar to 00z with the 3 day wave train thing going?

.5" this morning in Hopewell, was coming down at a good clip for a time there. Roads were slushy as well. Didn't change over to sleet/rain until precip had shut off. Nice little refresher but the drips are already put in full force.

Exactly that, there's a class that you sit through and at the end you get a neat little card with your spotter ID and how to directions on submitting reports. It's actually a fun class, nothing like earth shattering but I'd go again to update my spotter card since my address has changed lol

Nam stops the nw trend for now. Definite tick back southeast with a less amplified low. Great hit for the shore areas that got little to nothing this past storm though. Will be interesting to see what the rest of guidance does.

18z euro really highlights how warm the BL is... If we don't get good rates, it's likely a light rain. This is dynamics or bust.

enjoy those 1000 mile swings between runs btw that's the para gfs, not the gfs and it has been consistently outperforming the euro the last month or so.

Guidance has brought this one back from the dead at 12z. Almost every model now showing something for the area besides the Canadian suite and nothing really preventing the N ticks to continue. I think this one has a good shot of being a nice quick hitter with 3-6" potential. 3 days out only, time for dedicated storm thread. I hope it isn't the kiss of death