The Iceman

Yeah, i was surprised to see it spit out so much but definitely won't be 10:1.. no high in place either. I think we all agree that Wednesday is the main event, do you think we want Monday weaker or stronger?

12z CMC totals or this storm is a disappointment

Lehigh Valley, even upper bucks/montco.... 12z euro says don't give up on Monday yet either

That map deserves a 5 bun salute Would be one hell of a birthday though

I honestly didn't know the eps mean went that high after the last few winters

Stolen from Weather Will over in the Mid Atlantic Forum... Some really nice hits on the GEFS( Give me p09 and call it a winter lol) but also shows the wide range of uncertainty which is to be expected this far out. Overall though the look up top looks good for an event.

Glad I moved 20 miles north last year. Difference between 15" in Hopewell and 3" in Levittown This storm would fall on my 30th bday so I'm rooting pretty hard for it. It's never snowed over .1" on my birthday so really if we get anything, it's going to be memorable. Really liking the set up! Best one we've had in a while and just inside 7 days! Edit: Threat on the 20-21st isn't terrible either on the GFS a pretty close miss, very interested to see what the ensembles have to say on that as well.

Not confirmed... just my weenie hopes and dreams. Knowing dougie, we'll probably have to coddle Wentz for another half before Hurts gets a shot. And knowing climo, the big event next week will probably be 50% rain

That was the best moment of the Eagles season so far. Hopefully just the preview of Hurts leading this team to victory over the Saints Kinda like how tomorrow will hopefully be the preview of a real event in the next week....

Same. My entire 1.5" last year fell in that storm. Since the 2016 blizzard, met winter has been just about non existent in these parts and things don't look to be changing anytime soon. When I get some time I'll check for sure, but this has got to be one of the worst 5 year met winter stretches ever. If we don't get saved in March in both 17-18 and 18-19, we're talking about one of the worst stretches of winter ever around here.

Judging from the recent ensemble update, I would look for our next real threat to be centered in the 12/12-12/13 range. Looks like the NAO/AO rise towards neutral and the PNA dives towards negative. There tends to be an event centered around that flip. Details this far out as far as any specific event are useless but hopefully we will have a better stock of cold air in place for it. That's the time period I'm most hopeful at this time anyway for now. Also have to hope that rise in the AO/NAO region is short lived because with a strong Nina, a +PNA for a significant amount of time was always highly unlikely. We really need the atlantic to cooperate or it's going to be rough...

Going to echo what Ralph said earlier and hope that this weekend's storm is just a sign of what's to come storm track wise. Going to be painful to watch pretty much a perfect track still end in a fail here because of the lack of cold air. Euro still showing the potential to end as some flakes to maybe a coating for the NW burbs and pocono's.

Poconos get rocked on the 12z euro. Almost everyone sees some flakes though. This is pretty much the best case scenario for this week imo. That 50/50 high isn't going to allow it to escape much further off the coast.

Yep, I took a break over the holidays from model watching, hoping the good looks we saw last week advanced in time and showed signs of lasting... nope. Instead it looks like we get a brief period of -ao/-nao/+pna with a longshot opportunity around the 9-10th(and we still don't have a real cold source for that) then we slide into typical Nina climo. It's what I was worried about when people were calling for a front loaded winter. We'd strike out because even above average looks can be hard to materialize in December. Then we'd waste our prime climo on the typical nina pac puke look. Hopefully that nina look is just as transient as our favorable period and we flip flop throughout winter, but I have my doubts. I can totally see the pattern changing again the 3rd week of Dec and not looking back..

Given my expectations are zero, I'd say that's a good bet All I really want is a warning level event(6"), and this winter would be cool in my book.

Recorded my first "trace" this morning with some flurry action on the way to work.

Reading around the winter forecasts released so far, it seems like the general agreement is our best shot to score is going to come in the first half of winter. Almost everyone is in agreement that Feb will be a blowtorch which is usually our biggest snow month based on climo so that alone means we're likely heading for below normal. Honestly if we finish between 10-20" on the year with most of that coming in the Dec-Jan timeframe, I'd call this year a win. Expectations are set super low this year. After last years blanking, any snow will be a win. The thought of back to back winters with single digit snow totals is depressing...

@Ralph Wiggum you doing a winter forecast this year? Always enjoy reading your thoughts.

1.07" at home in Hopewell so far. Round 1 looks like it'll be out of here before 6 or so.

For shit's and giggles I dug through every time in snowed in PHL in October since 1884 and the corresponding winter totals. Outside of the 2 duds(72-73 and 11-12), it's actually fairly encouraging albeit a very small sample size. So it has snowed(T or more) 15 times in October in PHL since 1884. However it has only snowed in October 4 times in the last 50 years(1970) and it just so happened 2 of the worst winters ever in these parts corresponded with October snow. Most snowfall in a following winter was 41.8" in 1957-1958 Least was Trace(0) in 1972-1973. Median of those 15 years was 20.9", right around average. Mean of those 15 years was 22.3", a little above average. So even the small sample size doesn't really even point in the direction of October Snow = Winter Cancel. I'm sure someone else can dig through the record for NYC but I bet they'd be similar.

For shit's and giggles I dug through every time in snowed at PHL in October since 1884 and the corresponding winter totals. Outside of the 2 duds(72-73 and 11-12), it's actually fairly encouraging albeit a very small sample size. So it has snowed(T or more) 15 times in October at PHL since 1884. Most snowfall in a following winter was 41.8" in 1957-1958 Least was Trace(0) in 1972-1973. Median of those 15 years was 20.9", right around average. Mean of those 15 years was 22.3", a little above average.

RIP Winter 2020-2021 if this comes to fruition. Remember the old adage, "Snow in October, Winter is Over"

Mods feel free to move if this isn't in the right place but I'm just looking for some advice. Right now I'm in a pretty comfy job that is unfortunately very unfulfilling even though I have amazing benefits. I was a met major originally back in college but switched to environmental geography after about 40 credits because I admittedly was smoking too much pot/ doing other things and found that geography was easier and I didn't want to put in the work for meteorology. The only job I could find out of college was in a field completely unrelated to the environment or mapping. I'm actually in accounting now and it's just because it was the easiest/first job available. This has been the theme of my 20's and honestly I'm ready for a change. I was plagued by addiction until I was 25 and have been living sober for almost 5 years now. I just feel like I'm mature enough now to follow my passion this time and complete the major. My worries are how realistic would it be for a school to even take me now? And what would job prospects look like for someone just graduating with a met degree in their mid 30's? Can anyone here offer any guidance or other advice? I'm open to all suggestion even if it's against my goal.

Rest of the week looks fairly above normal. The mid 70's feels balmy this time of the year.

ECM has been straight trash this summer, hard to take it seriously at this point.