The Iceman

00z euro looks wet for this week. 3-4" amounts right across SE PA.

6z GFS is a weenie run and a half lol. Sadly, we know it will be gone in 6 hours. Like a March snowstorm.

Despite how awful this winter has been, I still really enjoy ready Mt Holly's AFD's each day. Hinting at potential this weekend, let's see how this threat degrades over the week

Models already locking into that boundary setting up next week too far NW due to the SE ridge. 4 distinct waves all just cold rain. Hopefully we warm up after that because I'm done with this winter. At this point, it'd be cool to break the lowest snowfall of my lifetime. At 1.5" now, record is 2.4" set in 97-98.

Just some stats since there's nothing else really going on... As of 1/29/20, PHL is currently at .3" on the season. There have only been 25 winters with 3" or less on 1/29 since 1884 at PHL. Only 5 of those years managed to get to or above normal snowfall. The most snowfall of those years was 1913-14 when 34.2" fell after only having 2.2" thru 1/29. The least amount of snowfall was 72-73 where they had 0" and then finished with 0". The mean of those 25 years was 11.4". The median of those 25 years was 8.5". There have been 11 years that had less than 1.5" of snow on 1/29. Only one of those years(92-93) finished at or above normal with 24.3" after having just 1.0" on 1/29. The mean for those years was 8.7". The median of those years was 7.5". There have been 7 years that had 1" or less of snow on 1/29. Again only 92-93 finished at or above normal snowfall with 24.3" after having 1" on 1/29. The mean of those years was 6.9". The median of those years was 4.5" Statistically speaking, things ain't looking good the rest of the way. But if you're hoping that we get at least another frozen event, odds are pretty good. Since 1884, only 6 years have had less than an inch of snow after 1/29. 1924-25, 53-54, 72-73, 76-77, 97-98, and 01-02.

GFS caves to the Euro...shocker. CMC and ICON are still hits but mostly rain for most. N and W possibly sees an inch or 2 on those models. UKMET is also further E than 00z and it also is too warm at the surface for most. Seems like this one is pretty much DOA for now.

Will be very interesting to track this as we get closer. We've got a very large model spread at the moment. Euro/CMC are still OTS. NAVGEM has slowly backed off the super amplified look. GFS and ICON are solid hits. UKMET is an ampliefied bomb off the jersey coast but the surface is torched so it's basically just a windy rain storm. I think it's going to be hard to score around 95 on this one. I'd be shocked if we get an inch to be honest. North and west a 1-3" pasting looks to be in the cards but with so many possible solutions at this juncture, it's hard to even be confident in that. Will be a fun fews days of tracking but I warn that this one is likely a fail imo

I really like the Feb 08 threat. Think it has a great potential. It;s the ying to this weekend's yang in my eyes. Feb 08 has a lot of teleconnections going for it. 06z GFS showed a MECS in that time frame with ensemble support. Really think this actually could be the one...

Oh man it was freshman year of college for me. I was in Lancaster PA and we got around 45" between the 2 storms. Most snow I've ever seen in my life. By far my favorite week in my life when it comes to winter. Everything about those storms was magical for me.

@Ralph Wiggum I'm pretty sure you were the one who had said this in the past but isn't the NAVGEM usually too suppressed when it comes to synoptic events? And when it shows an amped solution with the other models being suppressed that it will sometimes lead the way? Is this some weird weenie handbook code? Am I just making it up and misremembering another model? Anyway, the NAVGEM is way further amped and NW than the other models.

Grateful Dead have a few great weather tracks Weather Report Suite: Cold Rain and Snow: Box of Rain: Looks like Rain: Here Comes Sunshine:

Soak it in because it's all down hill from here...

Not much cold air around in that time period. Would need to take a perfect track in order to get snow out of that imo. It's a very thread the needle type situation. Definitely a threat but with a lack of blocking, we will need perfect timing to get this one home. I anticipate seeing some fantasy runs though. Just not really sold on it yet until more things are hashed out. Would like to see a stronger HP to the north for one. Seasonal trend has been for these storms to hug the coast or ride just inland, so honestly that's what I'm anticipating with this one. I would be much more excited for this one if I lived in central PA. We'll see though, at least it is something to watch.

Here's what I bet happens... We'll waste 3/4th of February, and by then the majority of us will be looking towards warmer weather and spring. Then March 1st will hit, the NAO/AO/EPO will all tank, and we'll get 2-3 weeks of winter threats, half of which fail due to March climo. That pattern stays in place throughout spring though and we stay in the 40's/50's with frequent rain coastals. Then the pattern flips again and we transition right into summer temps. It's almost a lock....

Has there ever been a winter that was wall to wall hostile for snow that wasn't a super nino/nina? Seems like even in our worst of winters, we manage to pull out a 2 week period of winter at some point. Look at our recent bad winters, 98-99, 01-02, 07-08, and even 11-12 all had 2 week windows where we managed to scrape together a decent events(3-6") or 2. I would be pretty surprised if we don't get a similar period in February. I think it's a lock though this will finish as a below average winter, but I think we manage to at least hit double digits total wise. Would be pretty remarkable if we see a wall to wall snowless winter in a netural ENSO.

Finished with an inch of snow and sleet. Was a nice wintry day though 1.5" on the season now.

Fully over to sleet now. Temp still only 25 so we have a ways to go til rain.

Maybe a half inch out there? Nothing going on now. Hoping we can at least get an inch...

Cherish it. These 1-2" should feel like 1-2ft. Could be the last snow of winter.

Just reached 30F here. Will be interesting if we hit the freezing mark. Forecasted high was 33F. Projected to get down to 17F tonight. Should have great radiational cooling conditions with no wind and mostly clear skies for most of the night.

Euro was much colder., pretty sure 95 stays frozen the whole storm. If it changes to rain, it's at most light or drizzle. Great trends! Let's keep em going now..

Meso's are all over the place with QPF and precip type. Theme of colder for longer though is there. All of them are pretty unanimous that 95 stays below freezing until the last hour of precip. The NSSL is the best for everyone with mostly snow and only really changes to sleet for a brief period in the southern/95 areas before a change to light rain at the very end. The WRF -NMMB is a sleet bomb even for those up in the lehigh valley. It's the coldest of all the meso's though, 95 doesn't get above freezing until precip is gone, but it also has only half of the QPF of the NSSL. The WRF ARW is closer to the NSSL but has more sleet and a little bit less QPF. Overall though, pretty positive runs. Trending towards a WWA possibly for 95.

Mt Holly's early call. Pretty much agree with it except I'd bring the 1 inch line into 95. But with the way things have been trending, their map is probably the right call.

3k NAM is basically a non event for 95 with only a tenth of precip falling(mostly frozen though ) . Even up in the LV, totals would be lucky to eclipse 2 inches. Basically a minor nuisance. This storm really is a microcosm of this winter...

06z GFS was a weenie run and a half. i give it . 24-26th period definitely bears watching as our next threat. It will be interesting to see how this ends up as a coating - 1".