The Iceman

Had a gust to 48 MPH at my house, not too shabby. Picked up .4" of rain. We get the whiff this weekend that will bring some light rain/possibly snow tv showers. Next system after that looks to in the March 12th time frame. Since I'll be in Florida at that time, I'm predicting this is the one we finally get nailed with snow. Probably a MECS like the 6z GFS. lol

Marginal risk today for severe thunderstorms in the area: ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A northern stream shortwave trough will translate from the MS Valley to the OH Valley today, and reach the Mid-Atlantic and New England tonight. An associated surface cyclone will deepen from the lower Great Lakes into New England, while a trailing cold front moves eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. In the wake of weakening morning convection and a remnant MCV near southern WV, a few cloud breaks and some low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak buoyancy in advance of the cold front from WV into parts of PA/VA this afternoon/evening. Broken bands of storms will be possible this afternoon along the front, and the convection will spread east-northeastward toward NJ by late evening. Assuming sufficient near-surface destabilization, wind profiles will favor organized bowing segments and supercells with some threat for isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two.

same in Levittown. I thought a wicked cold front was moving through...

Yeah hopefully we get another 02-03 winter after suffering though 01-02 all over again. Then again we could always get another 12-13 which was only a little bit better(still horrible) than 11-12. 4th straight year though now with 0 events >6" during met winter at PHL. Largest snowfall in that span being 4.1". Largest event including March is only 6.7" and we've only hit the 6" mark twice in those 4 years both being in March 2018. 2016 we had the HECS but by and large it was a dud winter that we got lucky by nailing our 1 window of opportunity. So really we're going on 5 straight met winter's that were absolutely brutal. You'd think something has to give next year...unless this is our new normal..

Roadtrip...

That is not a neg NAO. That's a neutral NAO look that will likely trend positive as we get closer as it has most of the winter based on the graph above. Check out the GEFS today, it's about as positive as it gets in the LR. No blocking at all. This threat has apps runner written all over it. Would like to be wrong though.

Yep, if we had even a little blocking or EPO help, this period would have produced at least one storm. Had we had a perfect look, it would have been comparable to 2010. But alas, we have literally everything going against snow at the moment and it doesn't look to change thru the end of the Month. Expect more of same. 1-2 days of seasonable cold, warm up 1-2 days, rain, and repeat.

Awesome information, thank you! We are planning to hit one away game(against the Yankees), so I will keep this all in mind. I don't really care about autograph's, but I do think it's cool chatting with the players/maybe getting a photo and definitely would like to try and do that. Really looking forward to the experience!

Southern Texas down to the Mexico border is going to have double the snow in the next 24 hours than most of us have had all season. At this rate, Cuba will see a WSW level event before we do...

I'm pumped! Heading to spring training this year for the first time. Hitting 3 games and the Flyers-Lightning in Tampa. I grew up a Braves fan due to TBS superstation in the 90's but over the years it's really like a 50-50 split in my fandom now just because I watch the Phils way more often since Braves aren't nationally televised anymore. Think the Phils should be in the fight for the NL East. Really think it's anyone's division between the Braves, Phils, and Nats. Mets might not be bad this year either. Overall think the same as you, somewhere around 82-80 wins but if the Pitching can surprise, they can definitely win the east with their line up.

Models already locking into that boundary setting up next week too far NW due to the SE ridge. 4 distinct waves all just cold rain. Hopefully we warm up after that because I'm done with this winter. At this point, it'd be cool to break the lowest snowfall of my lifetime. At 1.5" now, record is 2.4" set in 97-98.

Just some stats since there's nothing else really going on... As of 1/29/20, PHL is currently at .3" on the season. There have only been 25 winters with 3" or less on 1/29 since 1884 at PHL. Only 5 of those years managed to get to or above normal snowfall. The most snowfall of those years was 1913-14 when 34.2" fell after only having 2.2" thru 1/29. The least amount of snowfall was 72-73 where they had 0" and then finished with 0". The mean of those 25 years was 11.4". The median of those 25 years was 8.5". There have been 11 years that had less than 1.5" of snow on 1/29. Only one of those years(92-93) finished at or above normal with 24.3" after having just 1.0" on 1/29. The mean for those years was 8.7". The median of those years was 7.5". There have been 7 years that had 1" or less of snow on 1/29. Again only 92-93 finished at or above normal snowfall with 24.3" after having 1" on 1/29. The mean of those years was 6.9". The median of those years was 4.5" Statistically speaking, things ain't looking good the rest of the way. But if you're hoping that we get at least another frozen event, odds are pretty good. Since 1884, only 6 years have had less than an inch of snow after 1/29. 1924-25, 53-54, 72-73, 76-77, 97-98, and 01-02.

06z GFS was a weenie run and a half. i give it . 24-26th period definitely bears watching as our next threat. It will be interesting to see how this ends up as a coating - 1".

If we get a look like this: That results in this: I think I'll be throwing in the towel for 2020 and rooting for futility.

Just saw this haha but I'm really loving the team this year as well. We are dominating possession most games and are winning despite many of our vets being snakebitten scoring wise. I also think bringing up Frost and Farabee was a great move. They make their share of mistakes but I think they've been improving every game even if the scoring isn't quite there yet. I can see frost being a 30+ goal scorer eventually with his wicked wrist shot and Farabee reminds me of the winger version of Coots when he was that age with his smart 2 way play. Hart is finally playing consistent and has really made himself the clear #1 this past month. The defense is the best we've had in years, the Niskenan trade was an absolute steal. Him and Provorov are a legit first pair which is something we have lacked in years past. As long as Hagg stays away from the line up and we don't do something stupid like trade Ghost, the defense should continue to be solid and only improve as the year goes on as guys like Sanheim and Myers gain even more experience. I really like offensively that we are getting scoring all up and down the line up. No one is putting up big numbers(save for TK) but the depth scoring is there to balance it out. And all of this is in spite of playing in an entirely new system from years past. I still think they haven't adjusted fully to it but once they do, watch out. Overall this team really reminds me of the Blues last year with their depth and if Hart continues his strong play and gives us the ability to steal games with his goaltending, we could be serious contenders this spring.

did you see the wrf meso's? all have 95 frozen throughout. war of the globals vs meso's. I think this has good bust potential especially if mt holly sides with the globals.

HRRR continuing to show 95 all snow.

imo the rates shown dynamically cool the surface so even though it shows rain on the map, it's actually heavy wet snow or sleet.

we just got NAM'd for tonight into tomorrow

I had a feeling this one would sneak up even on SE PA. even the warmer models are only showing rain at 33-34. with the snowpack this morning, things could easily be a few degrees colder. good to see the mesos picking up on this.

Couldn't have said it better. Having met Ray before at the Eastern conferences and reading his posts for 10+ years now, I have zero doubt that his measurement was legit. He's as huge a weenie as any but seriously one of the best amateur mets on the entire board(along with yourself). I trust his measurement much more than any john q public report that stuck a ruler in the grass at the end of the storm and called it a day. Now if this total was coming from a certain mountain in Tolland, CT, I'd be skeptical ...

Seems like SW NH was one of the big losers yesterday. My uncle said he finished with 8" in Swanzey. Congrats to all that hit the 30" mark!

My aunt and uncle's house has some elevation in the Keene area(Swanzey) and they too look like they are going to severely underperform on this one. As of 1 PM he said they have light snow with 2.5" on the day on grassy surfaces but on everything else it's basically white rain and has been since 8 or 9 this morning. They were forecasted 12-18". Radar doesn't look promising either for them to even come close to that. They are stuck in that screw zone sandwiched in between that band in VT that looks upslope enhanced and the death band in the SE part of NH through MA that doesn't look to get west enough to hit them. It actually looks like they'll be lucky to see 6"... This same thing happened back in the mid-late 2000's(I want to say 2005 or 2006) when I was up there for an event. I'll have to remember the exact date but it had to be a late December storm because I was up there for Christmas. Forecast was 14-18" with the possibility of 2ft but the same banding structure as pretty much today evolved and we got I think 7 or 8 inches on like 20 hours of light snow. Since it is mid march this time though, light snow won't really accumulate much during the day even if it is below freezing.

Uncle in Keene, NH says theres around 2" so far and that snow has picked up in intensity in the last hour or so. Weenie band setting up reminds me of the one that ripped through SEPA and CNJ last week. Had thundersnow for 3+ hours... Hope everyone that gets nailed by it enjoys and those not in it, take the road trip if you're close enough because you won't regret it