The Iceman

hug it and don't let go

Looks about right. Meso's are showing it a bit cooler tomorrow so everyone in PA flips around 18z. They seem to always be too cool though so just noise at this point. Above map is what I'm expecting and if I get more than a coating than it'll be a nice suprise.

Great read. Thanks for sharing. You can kind of see it this winter. We have not had any lack of strong systems the main factor is that we don't have any long term blocking. Now if a -AMO correlates to a +NAO, it seems like this increase of storminess so to speak will have a bigger effect on inland area's like we have seen this year. Now I wasn't alive in the 80's but it doesn't seem like they didn't have a lack of storms either, just didn't have the blocking in place so 95 went over to rain more often than not. We're relying on perfect timing without the blocking in place so while we still can see KU's as evidence this decade, inland area's definitely will be favored.

While the AMO definitely influences the NAO, it seems like it isn't a perfect correlation. NAO trends are typically 10-15 years in length while the AMO is more like 20-30 years. It looks to me like it's more that a peak AMO event influences the NAO but not during the entire event. Also, I think the lack of KU events can be more attributed to the NAO than the AMO. There were several KU's during the last -AMO. Including 1996,93,87. Now it may be that there are more 'bad' winter's in a -AMO but I don't believe there is a difference in the amount or strength of storms on the east coast. The lack of blocking though means that the storm track favors inland areas. Still important to note that we are entering a -AMO phase.

may wanna add Possible Squall Line in the title since it's the only thing us around 95 and S have to look forward to... don't think we'll see anything more than a coating.

People went gung ho on a -NAO winter when all signs in fall pointed towards it being positive especially when we saw the dip negative in mid november before it shot right back to positive. The WAR that had been in place since summer refused to die and was also completely ignored in many forecasts. Too many based their long range based off analogs and what was supposed to happen in a weak modoki nino instead of analyzing the current pattern in the fall. There were red flags. The 3 month running average for the NAO was positive for most of 2018, and this was completely ignored. There is a trend for the NAO to favor one phase or another over a long period of time and there wasn't anything that jumped out to me why this would change. There were some interesting theories on why we'd see a neg nao but they have all came up empty this year. Sometimes simple is best.

I don't see more than a coating-inch down for the 95 corridor. I think the severe chances are better than the snow chances...

And that's way too broad of a brush. There have been bad weak El Nino's in the past. Not enough attention was paid to the pattern leading into winter imo. The WAR killing us all winter has been in place since summer. The nao had been majority positive. Too many were banking on a magical pattern flip because analog years and "the weeklies" said it would come.

Once the shift to a breakdown of the PAC occurred it ended our year. I know you said you're not saying winter's over but I am. Barring the pattern severely fixing itself over the final 2 weeks of February, stick a fork in this winter. We just aren't going to see a sustained blocking and cold this winter. They honestly should discontinue the weeklies. Terrible terrible guidance, anyone that uses them is going to be wrong 99% of the time. I'm ready for severe season and if we keep this same pattern, it could be a real doozy of a severe season.

Not everyone... I think the biggest problem was forecasters came across too confident in thesr winter forecasts and really didn't give themselves an out. I thought this winter would be frustrating at the coast due to the war from hell in place since summer and positive nao but that this winter definitely was a low confidence forecast. It felt there was way too much certainty in many winter forecasts and I hope some are humbled by this season instead of coming up with excuses...

It has not been bad the last few years. I mean maybe to you because you cry if every season isn't like 2010.

you and I would be lucky to see an inch if it was correct. Likely less because of the rain...

Euro is straight up hilarious for Wednesday. everywhere except SE PA and NYC get 3-6". We're left with a coating-2 inches. Meanwhile DC gets rocked... sometimes you gotta know when to fold em on a winter.

you're right, long range looks great!

things are coming together for a massive -nao in time for spring... should be plenty cold and wet then too...

Keep an eye on the coastal monday. There have been some big shifts west over the last 24 hours. So much so that if it continues the coastal area's may be in line for at least a light event. The NAM and GFS both have shifted a good 100-150 miles since 00z.

in the winter of azz anything is possible...

I think it's funny they can't see the writing on the wall when one of their best posters is saying it doesn't look good. With next week looking like a fail, it seems the pac floodgates open again and the winter of azz rolls full steam ahead.

agreed. i'm ready for spring. This severe cold, little to no torches, no snow and a ton of rain is a winter of horror. Give me the super nino winter any day of the week since at least it's mild. This is legit the worst pattern possible.

I've read several times in other forums that the models won't have any clue on the system next week until this current system clears out due to how complex it is. Now complex usually equals fail around here but who knows maybe we'll get a reverse march 2001 LOL

TTN is at 58, 59 in the NE PHL it's going to be close

balmy 58 degrees here. steady rain all morning with pockets of heavy in between. Can we reach 60? Would be a good thing imo..wiggum rule ftw

I've had friends who aren't into hobby ask when's the snow coming because pretty much every met in the area went with winter of yore. I read in the Philly Inq yesterday about the cold and stormy pattern "just around the corner". It's like they are doubling down on the nonsense. Not good for public perception at all...

I'll take a march like last year anytime. I'll never forget have 6+ hours of thundersnow. Unlike anything I've ever experienced. Unfortunately it does not look like a pattern similar to that is anywhere close to happening. If next week fails, and the pattern breaks down like the gfs and euro ensembles show, I'm throwing in the towel.

NAM 3k and 12k continues to hint at a squall line developing tomorrow. Looks pretty nasty actually. Thunderstorm would be a good thing imo, we typically get some snow within 7 days when we get tstorms in the heart of winter. It isn't full proof but it's something I have noticed over the years.