The Iceman

Finished at 1.5" of rain. Nice little storm, winds are roaring this morning.

But serious could this look lock in from december to february? Thx

Good news, it's gone on the 6z run lol I don't think we'll see any snow in late october, the depth of the cold 95% won't be strong enough to hold in place. I do like the look at the end of the month and I hope the trend of late of patterns locking in holds up here.

GFS has shown some big time cold coming into the end of the month. First freeze in late october would make for a chilly halloween. PS let's get this look in mid winter plz.

First of hopefully many coastal storms tomorrow. Looks like 1-2" of rain for most of the area and winds 25-30 MPH with gusts of 40. I really enjoy these fall coastals and I feel like it's a good sign for winter.

Coastal low this week should be interesting to track. Incredible spread among the models at such a short range. Ranges anywhere from 1"+ qpf for most of the 95 corridor S and E to rain being confined to the coast. Tough forecast for sure.

Looks like the heat has passed us. These next 2 weeks should be seasonable.

Save for Thursday, which should be fairly light qpf, it looks like you'll get your wish. Ridge builds in for next weekend and beyond. October may be a very dry month. Hope this trend doesn't carry into winter or it could be a boring one.

Looking like some record highs may fall on Wednesday. Temps in the low 90s for the 95 corridor pretty much breaks a record at every station.

made it all the way down to 48F last night. feels like fall outside. we're in for quite a boring pattern these next 2 weeks.

Picked up 1.35" of rain yesterday.

btw did anyone catch the 00z euro. Long way's away but damn wouldn't this be something?

First half of the month has been pretty dry here. Only .3" of rain this month. Next week looks dry as a ridge builds in across the east. After the fairly wet summer, it looks like a pattern change has set in. Won't be surprised if we finish well below normal barring a tropical system moving in.

.51" of rain yesterday. Had 4.7" in August total although half of that fell in one day. 2nd half of the month was pretty dry, only .8" from 8/16 - 8/31.

Semptember looks to start mainly dry and boring here. No big synoptic set ups in the next 10 days.

did you see the wrf meso's? all have 95 frozen throughout. war of the globals vs meso's. I think this has good bust potential especially if mt holly sides with the globals.

HRRR continuing to show 95 all snow.

imo the rates shown dynamically cool the surface so even though it shows rain on the map, it's actually heavy wet snow or sleet.

we just got NAM'd for tonight into tomorrow

I had a feeling this one would sneak up even on SE PA. even the warmer models are only showing rain at 33-34. with the snowpack this morning, things could easily be a few degrees colder. good to see the mesos picking up on this.

Couldn't have said it better. Having met Ray before at the Eastern conferences and reading his posts for 10+ years now, I have zero doubt that his measurement was legit. He's as huge a weenie as any but seriously one of the best amateur mets on the entire board(along with yourself). I trust his measurement much more than any john q public report that stuck a ruler in the grass at the end of the storm and called it a day. Now if this total was coming from a certain mountain in Tolland, CT, I'd be skeptical ...

Seems like SW NH was one of the big losers yesterday. My uncle said he finished with 8" in Swanzey. Congrats to all that hit the 30" mark!

My aunt and uncle's house has some elevation in the Keene area(Swanzey) and they too look like they are going to severely underperform on this one. As of 1 PM he said they have light snow with 2.5" on the day on grassy surfaces but on everything else it's basically white rain and has been since 8 or 9 this morning. They were forecasted 12-18". Radar doesn't look promising either for them to even come close to that. They are stuck in that screw zone sandwiched in between that band in VT that looks upslope enhanced and the death band in the SE part of NH through MA that doesn't look to get west enough to hit them. It actually looks like they'll be lucky to see 6"... This same thing happened back in the mid-late 2000's(I want to say 2005 or 2006) when I was up there for an event. I'll have to remember the exact date but it had to be a late December storm because I was up there for Christmas. Forecast was 14-18" with the possibility of 2ft but the same banding structure as pretty much today evolved and we got I think 7 or 8 inches on like 20 hours of light snow. Since it is mid march this time though, light snow won't really accumulate much during the day even if it is below freezing.

Uncle in Keene, NH says theres around 2" so far and that snow has picked up in intensity in the last hour or so. Weenie band setting up reminds me of the one that ripped through SEPA and CNJ last week. Had thundersnow for 3+ hours... Hope everyone that gets nailed by it enjoys and those not in it, take the road trip if you're close enough because you won't regret it