The Iceman

to quote redsky, only in the winter of AZZ could we have this look inside 7 days and still get nothing. I don't think the wave event next week is anywhere close to over but we definitely need some changes soon. I've been reading that we need the first storm out of the way in order to get a handle on next week. This is our last shot though before things go to hell around day 10.

all the eggs are now on a cold front and a wave to ride perfectly along it. it aint lookin good. I didn't buy into the winter of yore hype but even I didn't think this winter would be a straight ratter, one of the worst of the 2000's but that appears where we are headed barring some major major changes.

I'm rooting for the full lat ridge then at least it won't be balls cold and we can get an early spring. Take this winter out to the shed...

Save for the end of December it's been a majority positive. We saw one brief dip at the end of December then that was it. Definitely far from the sustain -nao coming in xxxx weeks that many others called...

Next week looks great h5 wise on the Euro...and it's not in the super long range either. If that comes to fruition, I really like our chances next week as the transient blocking looks to be in place. Maybe this will be the one where we finally get the timing right. If we strike out, well the Phillies report next month.

It's definitely coming....in time for a cold rainy spring...

I think Ji has more credibility than him at this point... Used to be a fan but have come to realize he will always call for cold and snow because that's what sells.

Lot's of pro's looking in serious trouble on their massive winter calls. almost 2/3 through met winter and it's been as ratty as can be. February will need to be historical like March last year for most to even have a shot of verifying. I'll be happy to get to average. That accuwx guy in the 2nd post has absolutely nailed this winter so far. Curious what he thinks about the upcoming pattern.

UGLY, we need at least a dip into negative for favorable results on next weeks storm. No sign of a lasting -NAO though and not a good sign it stays positive the next 15 days on the ensembles. Combined with the PNA looking to head negative, very very pessimistic this morning.

Looking like next weeks storm is all or nothing. PAC breaks down shortly after and we are in for some more tough times... Maybe march will rock again...

Great post Paul, I feel the same way right now irt next weekend.

I respectfully disagree good sir . We need a slight neg nao here to slow the pattern down otherwise we are relying on perfect timing. We've scored in positive naos though due to the reasons you stated above. The AO tanking would be big because then at the very least we should see a few clippers and a supply of cold to work with so we can actually have true thump events even if it changes over. I think the 29th favors a coastal hugger or slight inland runner with a change over likely for 95 at this time. We'd do decent before us does though unlike this weekend because we'll have cold air to work with in place If we can get the nao slightly negative though we'd be in business to suppress it a bit se.

The hopes for an average winter are fading fast for both Philly and New York. Of course we can get lucky in March like last year but overall it looks like a favorable period of 3-4 days then we're back to where we started in early Feb...

Guidance overnight continues with the idea the "epic pattern" will last 3-4 days before breaking down back to crap. Pac ends up breaking down and since we can't sustain a neg nao it goes back to pretty ugly. So we have a 3-4 day window of winter chances soooooo epic LOL

Zero snow all rain with a few sleet pellets. Is it safe to go out?

Surprised there's no flood watches. We're still going to get 2" of rain... Hard to believe that won't cause issues with the amount of precip we've had this winter...

Not nearly enough attention was given to the fact we are in a decadal +nao regime. That was always going to be the key to winter and without it we'd be relying on luck. It's why I didn't buy into winter of yore talk. I didn't think it'd be this bad though and that we'd finish below normal. Now barring a lucky break, I think it's much more likely than above normal. Seasonal trends cannot be denied and when the pattern change is indefinitely in day 10-15 it's just not coming...

I think winter is done and we're in for cold dry then warm up wet repeat for the rest of winter. Maybe we ll get lucky...

It is actually unreal that we've gone from near HECS to entirely rain with no snow in 7 days. This winter is toast.

18z nam has a big thump in the front end for a lot of areas. 2-4"+ for most in SE PA.

rightfully so, down here we could easily see all rain or have an event similar to the one in November. Really tough forecast down this way especially when you have some guidance keeping us freezing for a long while and others pretty much flipping us at the start. We are in a similar situation as you guys in the metro area.

disagree on no chance... likely? i would say no. However the meso models have been keying on the LL cold being stronger than modeled so definitely not outside the realm of possibility. The snow may only last a hour or two but it may come down in a fury during that time. I could easily see 2-4" so nitpicking 3-6" doesnt seem outlandish to me. I think his map is actually pretty good, pretty much my thoughts as well.

Another Hi-res WRF keeps SE PA all frozen

another WRF meso model keeps SE PA all frozen...here's the warmest panel...could the meso models be keying on the CAD better? Would not be the first time. Very interesting developments.

hmmm 12z hi res wrf-NSSL is very interesting. Here is the warmest panel I could find. Looks like we wet bulb and surface temps hang tight in a classic CAD formation. 95 stays at or below freezing the entire time. Could it be on to something? It is the only model that has nailed the temps today being in the low-mid 30's as opposed to low 40's...