The Iceman

Of course I'm sick as a dog as we see our first big threat. Will hopefully feel better tomorrow to get up to speed. Brief look though looks very good! Could be sleet issues for 95 but as Ralph says "we take."

BTW the meso models are in agreement for another 1-2" for most of the delaware river valley. Wouldn't be surprised to see these totals go up with the dynamics in place. Surprised no flood watch, I guess even though it's been wet, there isn't really a flood threat.

soooo is no one gonna mention that the 12z euro smokes us on day 9... only 8 days to go!! nice storm signal showing up though in all of the models.

There have been trends in all of the models for the 7th of the air being much cooler than initially anticipated. So much so that I am actually thinking most may start as snow here. Hopefully we can all at least see some flakes, it's needed in here lol

LV should continue watching the storm early next week. Could be a sneaky little ice or snow event. Most models are catching on the CAD and keeping the cold air in place longer than before, some even getting the snow line close to the city to start. If I lived in the LV I'd be tracking this one, as it's a decent chance for a decent little event in a terrible pattern.

12z 3k NAM blasts another 1-2+" of rain for much of the 95 corridor tn and tomorrow. Can't catch any relief. Very surprised the delaware hasn't gotten to flood stage or action stage with all these heavy rain events.

Yeah, that is a big signal for a pattern shift and essentially the same storm track of things going right underneath of us except we will have cold air around. Beginning to warm up to a rocking february but again, I will believe it once it is inside 10 days. Models have been showing this progression for some time, but then delay it backwards as it hits day 9-10. Let's hope this is the real deal.

Euro has a sneaky CAD signature for next mon night into tuesday. don't think it'll be enough for 95 but if I lived in the LV, this is definitely something to watch for at least ice. Further N and W you are the better you look. CMC is on board as well. GFS is way more progressive. Something to watch at least though the outcome is most likely rain for 95. Euro also has an apps runner at day 10 that looks to be a pattern changer imo... pretty good run compared to yesterday and last night as at least there is a chance at some frozen inside 10 days..

Very true Paul. Look at 15-2016.. I finished almost 10 inches above average because of largely one storm. In this year, I think it's a higher than normal chance for something similar to occur. Maybe not a winter of yore but snow wise, I don't think anyone can ever say in this era of climate change that there's no shot for a big snow this winter or really any winter. 15-2016 had no business being an above average winter yet it was. Like I said in the other thread, I think it's becoming more likely we see a brief period of favorable looks where we will score either in the beginning or end with minor events possible in between. Not winter of yore but not a total blank. It is clear the pattern is certainly more delayed than anticipated as it looks like late January now at the earliest.

2 for 1...we get blanked the rest of winter for the 2 championships in one year... we can dream right?

this is what we get...several of us traded a super bowl for the next few winters. I'm ready to double down on that trade for another.... not gonna lie lol

Seems like the ens are backing down on the -nao in the LR. Looks positive thru mid month now. May not be until Feb until the pattern actually gets favorable imo. I'd prepare for a 2 week all or nothing period that will make or break our entire winter because that is what's this is all building towards imo I'm pretty confident in saying this month is 3/4th punted already... And by next week if things continue how they have since December, we will be putting all of January. Does not look good right now and I'd love those who think other wise to post some reasons it looks good for anything other than a brief favorable period other than climo saying it's our snowiest time...

Hints that the AO may tank, like severely tank -3 to -4 sd... Would mean suppression city here. I still think our best bet is going to be clippers going forward.

This is the new normal. Welcome to climate change...

once until we see this show a neg nao throughout the entire period expect the meh pattern with mostly rain to continue:

confidence is increasing for a 1-3" possibly changing to rain, almost certainly changing to sleet/frz rain for 95 imo. 2-4" N and W with some spots of 6". I think this is the one to watch. Not liking the new years threat atm after that looks like a parade of clippers though. May be able to nickle and dime our way to a solid january. That is what the upcoming pattern looks to support. Chance of snow with the clippers, synoptic events bring too much warm air though due to the lack of blocking.

Liking the new years time frame for an event. N and W favored for now but with nao fairly negative in that period, could be a region wide hit. If we don't score there, after that it looks like we punt another couple weeks at least for 95 as the nao rebounds to positive. Peak climo means n and w can still score in a bad pattern but down here we'll need luck. In an Atlantic dominated winter a transient -NAO will hurt our chances.

drizzle/light rain has begun here. Moisture plume looks incredible on radar...shame we have no blocking to hold the cold air in place because this could of been epic. Temp is 42. 12z suite was pretty unanimous in a widespread 2"+ rainfall for much of SE PA and all of NJ. There will be localized 3-4"+ totals though somewhere with the PWATS and moisture transport in place. Lets hope we see some thunderstorms so the JB rule can go in effect.(snow in the NE within 10 days following a thunderstorm in winter)..

13-14 if I remember was pretty dry but still active. No 1" QPF monsters but seemed like we got a clipper/wave that slid underneath dropping 1-3/2-4 every week. The good thing about cold is we can squeeze everything we can squeeze out of the precip we do get, so all may not be lost even if the PV sets up shop in a bad spot. Just wouldn't expect a big one until the pattern breaks down.

what a kick in the nuts that would be. finally get the cold and we get no precip after the one of the wettest if not the wettest OND period...

FWIW quite a few EPS members have 2-3" of snow for much of the area for the xmas threat. It's going to come down to track but has the makings of a surprise event that comes together inside 84 hours. GEFS only has one with that kind of snow, but several with mood flakes/coating-1".

I worry that we get too good of blocking leading to suppression...that's pretty much the CFS. The SSW may end up being a curse more than a blessing in that we may go from average cold and rain to f***ing cold and dry. A lot of times we don't score until the epic pattern breaks down. If that's the case, may not be until february...

Yeah I think with the parade of juicy synoptic systems we've seen the last few months, folks are expecting one of those to be a snow threat so I understand the frustration. We've had a wet month with temps at around normal but nothing to show for it. The next 10 days doesn't have a MECS threat imo but we could very easily score 1-2" once or twice. It isn't like it's an all out torch pattern where we're making tee times christmas day..

Ukie and Icon have a wave on the 24th that would be light snow for most. CMC has something on the 25th but it takes a poor track and would likely be rain. GFS is really the only model with nothing. Several GEFS members have a few inches in that period though. Also promising is roughly half have some measurable snow in the next 10 days. Something to watch at least...

3 - with 6 of the 7 occurring in the last 30 years, these kind of things will occur more frequently as precipitation during winter in the mid latitudes increase with climate change...