The Iceman

32 F 19 DP... It's the HURRR but it's showing a pretty decent event for all of se pa. Precip arrives as snow about a Hour or so earlier than guidance predicted and keeps most of the area frozen until evening.

Get ready to rage lol we'll be in the virga all morning long...

NE PA and Lehigh Valley get absolutely smoked. 3-6"+ of snow followed by a potentially significant ice storm. 32 line never gets above ABE and its really 33-34 at that time at 95... very close to being freezing throughout most or all of the precip even down in Philly. I think this will be a nowcast tomorrow morning based on how low we are able to cool off tonight...

18z NAM has the high a bit slower to scoot off the coast...looks a tad colder from 12z. should be a significant hit for the lehigh valley even with the sleet changeover. Much of 95 stays frozen as well. Even with 3:1 sleet ratios, would still be 2-3" for much of 95 over a 6 hour period. Would be a commute home from hell. Roads in NJ have been treated already in the capitol, didn't notice any treatment in lower bucks yet though. This solution was definitely a slight nod towards the euro imo especially with the low level cold. Snow to start also looks back in the picture after 12z looked like sleet even to start for much of 95. Hopefully the start of a cave in to the euro and not a hiccup.

18z NAM has the high a bit slower to scoot off the coast...looks a tad colder from 12z. should be a significant hit for the lehigh valley even with the sleet changeover. Much of 95 stays frozen as well. Even with 3:1 sleet ratios, would still be 2-3" for much of 95 over a 6 hour period. Would be a commute home from hell. Roads in NJ have been treated already in the capitol, didn't notice any treatment in lower bucks yet though. This solution was definitely a slight nod towards the euro imo especially with the low level cold. Snow to start also looks back in the picture after 12z looked like sleet even to start for much of 95. Hopefully the start of a cave in to the euro and not a hiccup.

FWIW the WRF Meso models are all pretty significant hits including sleet. I think I would still knock off 40% of what is put out on the map but would still be a pretty nice hit for 95 N and W. 18z and 00z will be very interesting as we approach nowcasting time.

I will say I did not anticipate the euro holding serve and the ukie coming aboard. Very early season battle of the Foreign and North american models. NAM is actually kind of in between the two. It may end up being the best solution of every model honestly... Euro not budging on low level and mid level temps though is encouraging. I think the key will be getting radiational cooling tonight.. if the cloud deck moves in too early overnight then it may really hurt frozen chances for 95 and snow chances for much of the LV(mostly sleet). If areas around 95 can get down to 25F tonight, things will be looking pretty good imo. Right now NWS is projecting 27 for my backyard.

CMC and OP GFS way warmer at the surface at 12 for most of the area. Even the pocono's change over to rain eventually and most start as sleet with no snow. This one is trending in the wrong direction to even see a few flakes on the onset for SE PA. There will be a ton of virga and by the time the column moistens enough, mid levels are too warm.

12z GFS is way warmer at the surface....most places outside of the pocono's don't even start as snow. Big rainmaker though, deform band rolls right over the area but temps are too warm aloft and at the surface.

A less talked about thing with this storm is the rainfall, should see widespread totals of 1-2" again. Pretty surprised the big rivers in the area aren't running high or in action stage with all the widespread synoptic rainfall events the past 2 months. Thought we'd see at least minor flooding in some of the creeks and rivers at this point.

New nam holds serve temp wise but actually is a pretty good solution. Mostly frozen for everyone N and W of the delaware before being dryslotted. Now the NAM is the only one really showing this dry slot but would be a good solution for most imo very limited plain rain save for S jersey. Not much snow but at least it's frozen.

Agreed, doesn't take the warm tongue into account at all. Now 3-6" of heavy wet snow and sleet can definitely cause issues so people shouldn't be sleeping on this in the N and W areas. But this should be more hyped as an ice/sleet storm than snow storm imo. I don't think anyone in this area sees close to a foot. And I certainly don't see 3-6" from Philly and along the Delaware. I do think the low level cold may actually be underdone(closer to the para gfs/euro)though as usually the case in these situations..

I think they are underplaying the mid level warmth. In storms like these with a strong southern fetch off the ocean, the mid levels warm much quicker than anticipated. Have seen it several times in the last few years and it was responsible for the mega bust 'blizzard' of 2017. Everyone will change to sleet imo and it will come much quicker than anticipated cutting down on projected totals. There is definitely a chance for some lollipops of 6-8" in the high elevation area's though. I think 3-6" in the pocono region is a fair estimate for now almost all on the front end. There is a chance though you guys get in on the deformation band. Something to watch.

Like someone else mentioned above, pad the stats for winter baby

This looks like a perfect call imo

my first and only call is C-1" Philly and immediate suburbs. N and W burbs 1-3" with lollis of 5" in elevated areas. Sleet will cut down on totals region wide and I expect even the Allentown area to see a significant period of sleet.

18z NAM def took a step towards the Euro...cooler than 12z...actually a decent thump..decent meaning 1-3" with 1-2" being most common...but N and W burbs...not too far from a potential warning event....

Hard to go against the Euro at this range...will the americans fold come 00z? pre-season winter is great.

BTW does anyone know how the parallel GFS(at least I think that's what FV-3 GFS on TT is) has done so far and when it is taking over for the GFS? It's running now but not sure whether it is worth looking at or not. Thanks. Edit: looks cooler than the OP GFS for 95.. definitely at least starts as snow where as OP I think most start as sleet.

Not a pro but here is what I think basing off of analogs, the seasonal pattern thus far, and the long term pattern over the last decade or so. Now that enso is more clear, I am more confident in my thinking. Analog years are 63-64, 77-78, 86-87, 02-03, 14-15. Now you may see this and think oh man, Iceman is about to drop another winter of yore forecast...but not so fast. This winter should feature an active storm pattern similar to what we have seen in the last few weeks frequently featured in a 'modoki' el nino. Modoki el nino are typically prolific snow makers in the interior and in the Northeast and I feel like this winter will be no different. However, down in the 95 corridor and burbs, modoki's are not as much of a lock to be big years but usually do work in our favor if the atlantic is cooperative. Now usually anytime you have above average precip and around normal temps, the area typically sees above average snow fall. And I think those 2 of those 3 things will be true this winter. Unfortunately I do not think the snow part will come together more often than not for 95. I'm thinking the pattern of late will be the theme of winter. Progressive systems that will be prolific moisture makers but will need to thread the needle in order to produce snow for 95. As we have seen, and will see later this week, a lot of time these patterns produce storms that either hug the coast or cut up the apps. I do not foresee a -NAO being long lasting based on my personal belief that the NAO is largely in one phase over 20 year periods and right now we are in a +NAO regime. Now I think we will have periods with a -NAO but I do not think it will be the dominant feature this winter. Now due to this, we will largely be trying to thread the needle on the coastal plain which works against us more often than not. One storm can bust my entire snow forecast but I do think largely this will be a winter of changeover events for the 95 corridor. As a result, even though precip will be above normal and temps likely around normal(as behind these systems we will see temps below normal), I think this winter will be at or below average snowfall for the 95 corridor. For the area around the NE extension N and W, I think this winter will be a good one. Above average for sure, potentially an all timer. Here's the month by month breakdown: Dec Temps 0 to -2 Precip: Above Normal Snowfall: Normal for 95 corridor, Above normal N and W burbs(Northeast extension and north) Jan Temps +1 to +3 Precip: Above Normal Snowfall: Normal 95, above normal N and W Feb Temps 0 to +2 Precip: Above Normal Snowfall: Below Normal 95, Normal N and W Thanks for reading!

The 3k NAM is at range but shows probably the worst possible solution for 95(or best depending on your outlook). Big thump arrives in the late afternoon and lasts through the evening commute before changing to sleet then rain. May not be a prolific total maker but it's timing is for maximum impact during the evening commute. One thing to note though is that while low level cold may hold on longer than expected, the upper levels tend to torch much quicker than progged in these systems. I bet most of what the NAM is showing as snow in 95 corridor is actually sleet and the changeover to sleet will be much faster than advertised. Still a quick 1-2" during the evening commute could wreak havoc especially since most won't take it seriously since it's November.

I don't like this for anyone S and E of Quakertown area. Not a great setup in the heart of winter for the coastal plain, let alone mid november. I would be shocked if anywhere S of Qtown sees anything outside of a slushy inch. Lehigh valley though, this may be an all time fall snow storm...

my thoughts exact and imo this is the type of storm that will be common this winter.

Hey Nice write up and I hope you are right. Calling for below normal temps over the entire winter though is pretty ballsy in this day and age. Does anyone know the last time we had seasonal departures o f-2 to -4? Even in our blockbuster years the last decade, I'm pretty sure none were more than a degree below normal overall(correct me if I am wrong). I think we agree it is going to be active pattern, but I am concerned with temps at the moment especially with how fall has unfolded thus far and the effects that climate change are having on our seasonal patterns. Just curious what trends are you looking at that are pointing towards a neg nao. It's been my experience that NAO forecasting is pretty fickle at best. Even right now, I'm not super confident in a neg nao beyond transitional especially with the trends of the last decade being that most of our winters have been +NAO. Despite that though, the Pac has worked out for us a bunch in the last decade. One could argue that we are due for a neg nao winter though and that we should be heading into a long term shift of -NAO winters unlike years past.

I'm like 60% through my winter forecast and leaning the same way in my head... however I'm debating even including snowfall in my outlook as one storm can now produce an above average winter in the climate change era. I mean we could be largely right with the cutter and tucked theme, call for above average temps below average snowfalll but one storm threads the needle and busts the snowfall. I think I'm just going to use precip instead... It's looking like an above average both temp and precip wise. We can win with that occasionally but we lose at least down here on the coastal plain 8-9 times out of ten in air mass battleground systems. In my heart though,I hope it is a 2010 redux and we can go back and bump troll these posts