The Iceman

Only flizzard to very light snow in Levittown and occasional flurries in Trenton. No accumulation...surprised it got this far inland/north though.

This is right where I want to be in the 96-120 time frame. No way would I feel good being in the bulls eye with the shifting N every run. I would still be wary of a changeover for 95 if this comes N.

I have a weathermodels.com subscription but can't find where you get the mean and all of the individual members on one map like that. Could you share the link?

Someone in South Jersey will probably see a couple inches today. Very small area though

The spread on the EPS and GEFS is unreal..there's everything from southern squash to MECS to driving rain storm and everything in between...like steve said above, i don't think we are going to see any kind of consensus until the 84 hour mark. Expect lots of bouncing around until then between hits and non hits between all of the globals. I am concerned of this storm being pushed back though and hope those solutions do not come to pass.

GFS and Euro along with their ensembles all signaling southern squash right now. But hey we have the CMC holding firm... however the SE ridge on the CMC is modeled stronger than every other model squashing this south. And quite frankly that is not really a stretch to occur imo. It also has stronger ridging in the west as well. While the threat looks bleak right now, we are not far off at 500 mb to seeing this come back.

trending more and more towards a southern squash. last 6 runs have trended negatively at 500 mb.. will need to stop that if we have any hope of a return north. good news is that small difference there or a reversal of that trend, can make big differences at the surface. a worry I have is that if we do see these changes, that the high will slide OTS and the primary will ride up the apps before transferring to the coast. Would be a snow to rain or ice for most. But this is early december and climo is against MECS most of the time. This pattern is pretty good but you typically need great patterns to see major storms in early december.

With how fast the pattern is and will continue to be for the forseeable future imo, these kind of storms are how we can score this pattern. The problem is we need to rely on perfect timing but once things get clearer and nearer, we'll have a better idea. I wouldn't be confident and anything past day 4 right now. Really nice signal though developing day 10... if blocking isn't as strong as projected or is delayed, that high will slide out to sea and it will be snow to rain scenario for most. honestly, this is the most likely outcome in this pattern. PHL averages ~ 2" and ABE ~ 4" in December for a reason. Most of the time, you need a pretty textbook pattern to see a significant storm and I'm not sure the upcoming pattern fits that bill. Light events like the one above are our best shot imo..

Liking the 9th-12th period much more than the 5th but that is based on the NAO returning to negative like the ensembles are hinting. There is a ton of variance though after the rise up to positive and even though the mean shows it going negative, I am not sold yet because the last few years we've seen a -NAO at day 10 get delayed after a few days. Seems the models have no clue whether it is going to stay positive and it's making the OP's pretty much useless after D 7. When you look at the trend since august, it is not encouraging for the NAO staying negative.. just my opinion though. AO looks to be negative for the foreseeable future though so at least that should signal cold air nearby or in place. Another good thing we have going is the PNA looks to stay positive which should translate to troughing in the east. We've scored a ton without a -NAO harder to do so in early December. I think the period will be active but progressive... no real sustained cold or warmth. we'll need to luck out on timing if the NAO stays positive in the LR.

Finished at .85" yesterday.

Just passed .6" in Levittown. Going to be close whether we get an inch or not. Back end coming quick. Incredibly dark outside...

Looks like it is racing and isn't that large of a precip field. May only last 2-3 hours though that may be enough with the oranges and yellows that have filled in the last hour.

Luckily today is looking like an under performer for most of SE PA. Don't think anyone will see an inch out of this based on the current radar which is good. Rain just began here in Trenton. Interestingly the HRRR, 3k NAM, and RGEM all print out 1-1.5" across lower SE PA into NJ. Will be interesting to see if they verify because right now, not looking too impressive.

I think the models are useless past day 10 right now for LR forecasting. You said it previously, I am also concerned that when the atlantic looks good, the pac is crap and vice versa. We are going to need both to score in December imo. Next week is looking less torchy though imo. AN sure, I don't think we'll see huge departures though like previously thought. With the volatility of this pattern, we are going to see big changes past day 7 almost every run... very difficult forecast for december that's for sure. Could see it being a great start to the season or could see us getting shut out as well. One thing for sure though is I believe it will be active storm wise, whether it is snow or rain will be the big ?. Need the NAO to go majorly - if we want the storm track further S/e. Right now, looks like cutter after cutter. With temps around normal. Exactly what I feared tbh...

from mt holly Anytime an all time monthly cold record falls in this day and age is pretty impressive...

Hope everyone had a great Turkey day. Got down to 15 F last night.. I paid the piper for adventuring in the snow without my winter gear last Thursday. Have had the Flu since sunday...awful stuff but finally have gotten around to catching up on the upcoming period. As Newman posted above, the upcoming pattern does look very volitile. Great word for this pattern. I think we'll likely be at or even slightly below normal, but the storm track does not look favorable at all for this period. I see many snow or ice to rain events for 95 for the first half of december(which is good for around here, we can have decembers with no even borderline events). This looks like a good pattern for LV though imo. Maybe not snow, but with the amount of cold air near by and already in place, even warm systems will have a chance at frozen. I think the 222 corridor N and W may do well the first half of december.

Looking back, there's a pretty good correlation between good winters and November snowfall in the Philadelphia area. It's honestly almost unanimously the case...

No worries! Didn't come off condescending at all. I appreciate the comments! I will add that I do not have a high confidence because of the fact I think we will be living on the edge on the 95 corridor. If things break like yesterday all winter, then I am for sure in trouble. But yesterday was an exception to the rule at least for as long as I've lived in the 95 corridor. Weeklies are looking good for beginning of december and I think this pattern will continue to provide chances especially since the cold air is firmly entrenched already across North america. You are correct though, another storm that is the exception to the rule hitting in mid january as opposed to november could bust my forecast on it's own. I hope i'm wrong though, I love snow just as much as anyone! Maybe this is the winter the NAO finally switches to a majority - regime. We've been in this +NAO regime for almost the entire 2000's even dating back to the 90s. We are overdue imo but with the climate changing nothing is normal anymore but that is another conversation for another day

4.5" final making it the largest November snowfall in my lifetime for Levittown. Amazing storm. Mother nature gave a big FU to my winter forecast early on. If the cold air can hang tough as it did yesterday this winter, we may be a good one after all. Trust me I hope my winter forecast is wrong lol

Howdy neighbor...how is 413? Route 13 and route 1 are a complete disaster. We just flipped back to all snow.

Snow trying mix back in again. Temp has came up to 31F though now that we are out of the heavy returns. Scratch that now 75% fatties 25% pingers

Home after a hour ride home from trenton (usually 10 mins). 4 inches here in Levittown so the 5" report from Morrisville is believable to me.

snow line hanging tough in trenton, still mostly snow. Fiance reports 25% snow 75% pingers back at mi casa.

Fiance went out to the snowboard at home(hence why shes the fiance ) and said 3 inches at Levittown... didn't expect that at all!

Yeah CC shows the current flip line down in vineland atm. Though it has started making progress in the last few frames. Thinking it won't flip until 3 pm here..