The Iceman

welcome back from hibernation Ralph. Thanks for the early thoughts. Haven't gotten too far into my own winter forecast but the WAR that won't die since early summer can't be a good thing imo... plus the textbook miller a noreaster this coming weekend after a torch early through mid month, and things are not going great right now for a cold/active winter. I saw some of the seasonal models suggest a favorable pacific though at least in december/january which can overcome a crappy atlantic(not sure about this crappy though). I don't think moisture should be any issue though. Look forward to seeing your final call.

Crazy, the returns over your area looked very similar to mine I had thought. Was most of that last night?

They really need to be publicly shamed and criticized to prevent others from doing the same thing. Because if all everyone takes from this is hugs and smiles and "well just thank god they're okay", the next major storm to hit the US we'll have chasers trying to ride out a cat 4 on a barrier island in order to get the best shot since nothing physically nor legally happened to them miraculously due to their complete ignorance of basic chaser safety.

How do "professionals" underestimate the surge of a cat 4 hurricane in the gulf? It's not like they were inland near a bay and the bay rose higher than expected, this was right along an unprotected shoreline prior to a cat 4. Underestimating the surge in that location is like standing on the rim of a volcano before it erupts...

I'm not a "professional storm chaser" like Brett and his team, but it also looks like if they had bothered to pull up google maps for 2 minutes prior to chasing a cat 4 hurricane, they would have noticed that area was a low lying island with one main road that would no doubt see a major surge on close miss let alone a direct hit. But maybe that is just expecting too much from these "professionals".

That was certainly the case this summer. Front after front either washed out or would stall as it reached us so there was really no real cool summer days this year. This definitely ties into the lack of severe thunderstorms as well. The best thunderstorm of summer was last week...

Hey Paul, how much are you looking to spend? I've been researching software/hardware the last few months and may be able to give you a suggestion. I decided last March that I was going to finally get rid of my first really basic digital weather station that I got in high school(over 10 years ago, yikes) and get a professional-esque system as a birthday gift to myself.

Really feels awesome outside this morning with the low dews and wind gusts. I always love the first real strong cold front of fall... especially after the unbearable heat and humidity. Finished with 1.31" last night but it really seemed like more. It seemed like from 10 - 2 was relentless heavy rain...I thought for sure we had gotten over 2" at least.

Replying here because this clowns stupidness shouldn't murk up the main thread I can't blame him at all, and honestly give him mad props for not completely tearing into Brett in that interview. Can't say I would of held my tongue if that was my home this clown broke into and likely ruined the storm preparations that I had spent time on all because he had to have the best footage, safety be damned... It would be hilarious if he pressed charges on him and I really hope he does.

It really needs to be said that this Brett dudes actions have made him look like a total selfish azzhole in so many ways. He doesn't deserve anything to happen to him but I really hope he takes a long hard look at himself and his "career" if he manages to escape this.

guess we're going to find out just how safe it is to ride out a high end cat 4 in Mexico Beach since that one chaser is trapped there I believe after trying to go to PSJ. Footage should be great though, hopefully the stream doesn't die before him...

Yup. It's the equivalent of running into a burning building on purpose. My only worry is for the first responders that may have to put their lives in danger in order to save those morons that have no regard for their own.

meh I don't have much empathy for stupidity. should be some great live viewing material later on though...

Thank you and the other mods for doing your best.. Just to be clear my post above wasn't a remark on the job you all are doing, I understand it is impossible to keep up with the amount of crap.

I'm not a mod either or trust me I would along with about 25% of the posts in the thread I didn't mean to single you out but the banter in the main thread is unbearable and posts like that just add to it. I know you are not the problem.

We also don't need posts from non mods trying to be mods in the storm thread. Bring comments like this to banter, it really is not a hard concept yet so many have severe difficulty grasping it...

"I don't care if I am right because I have no idea what I'm talking about, I'm just trying to be a contrarian to get attention"

Holy crap, best storm of the year tonight. Wicked lightning and gusted to 53 mph on the my little tykes first anometer that I have lol but the lightning has been 10x better than any storm this summer. Was expecting nada tonight due to the timing too.

Also interesting how we are seeing these extremes in the pattern of late. Extreme wet for most of the last 2 months but looking into the long range, the ridge in the east looks to be locked in. Would be amazing to see one of the wettest Septembers on record followed by a very dry October, but the GEFS/EPS are not budging that ridge for the foreseeable future. Really looking locked in like the trough was the last two months.

Now this could be totally off base but maybe seasons are no longer aligning to the solar cycle and are starting/ending later due to the insulation from greenhouse gasses. Warmer air doesn't escape as rapidly even as we receive less sunlight leading to a lag period of temperature decrease. Maybe some met student will see this post and do a thesis on this because I have noticed this delay of season changes particularly since 2010.

My Aunt and Uncle live up in SW New Hampshire and this about describes their winters. I'm definitely moving up there at some point in my life. Going up for Christmas pretty much every year is the best since we get a white Christmas with snow on the ground 90% of the time and honestly I've had legit white Christmas snowstorms up there at least 25% of the time. Plus the summers are shorter in duration and way less intense and it isn''t overpopulated but also not the boonies. I love it up there.

Had last night of been a snowstorm, I would of went to bed depressed only to wake up overjoyed Had .08" up until midnight last night. Woke up and had 1.52" in the bucket. Must have all came down in like a hour tops. 10.3" of rain now on the month.

didn't get much at all last night, only .31" with the front. Unbelievable we're going to see more heavy rain tonight though. widespread 1-2" with locally more. If that comes to fruition, flooding will definitely be a problem at least around here. After this we look to dry out at least for a few days.

bump. any idea on how long this current outage will be? No KDOX either and severe weather possible today...

Ended with 2.9" of rain yesterday. My normal 15 minute commute took an hour and a half with all of the flooding and the rate the rain was coming down. Traffic was pretty much just stopped in lower bucks during the storm. Have received over 6" in the last week and 8.4" on the month with more looking likely today. On another note, KDIX is down again and KDOX remains down. Should be interesting tracking the storms later on as SPC has put us in a slight risk today.