The Iceman

Looking like another dud for rain today for most of SE PA. Best forcing and instability look to be north and south of us. This sad line of sprinkles is likely it for most of the area. I'm currently at .71" for July with .6" of that falling in 20 minutes so it just immediately ran off. This is the antithesis of last summer where it never wanted to stop raining...

Looks like areas N and E will be the favored area's for severe today. From SPC:

This initial band of storms is racing out ahead of the front. The HRRR and 3K has that line dying as it hits the lehigh valley like what is happening then more storms fire ahead of the front down in SE PA between 3 and 6. Someone is definitely getting screwed though.

Made it to 97 yesterday. This morning feels even worse... I live on the Delaware canal and it is bone dry. They released water in anticipation of a big rain event last month that never materialized and now the river level is too low to provide water for the canal. Wherever drought guy is, he's finally right!

Wow Ping Pong size hail reported with that cell that just moved through S Philly heading into Gloucester. Usually don't see stones that large in these parts. NWUS51 KPHI 201910 LSRPHI PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 310 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0300 PM HAIL FOLSOM 39.90N 75.33W 05/20/2022 E1.50 INCH DELAWARE PA PUBLIC

I live on the Jersey border pretty much and I'll happily pay an extra 15 cents a gallon to pump my own gas in PA. I've had several self serve stations do the above. What they'll do is fill your car with plus or supreme since it costs significantly more. Caught one guy who did that when I got 40 bucks and my tank was barely over half when usually it'd be at least 3/4's full so I got out and looked at the pump and sure enough that was the case. I threatened to call the cops if he didn't give me my money back so at least I got 40 dollars of supreme for free... I was ready to deck him though since he had a shit eating grin after I called him out on it. I could tell he does it to people all the time.

timing and position of the front looks poor at the moment. Best forcing comes through late night and most models dissipate convection as it reaches the area. GFS has a shortwave come through monday afternoon though that may spark some storms.

Doesn't look too impressive and by the time it reaches SE PA, instability will be past peak. Looks like a nothing burger today.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a mod risk posted tomorrow if instability comes to fruition. Upper level support is there for bowing segments and tornadoes but it’s going to depend how unstable we can get.

Dud of an event down here, .5” and that’s probably generous. Oh well we made out decent earlier in winter. Hopefully this is the last of the snow and cold. Ready for spring.

we have already tapered to light snow/flurries here. Heavy dusting on the ground. Well it was a fun 15 mins of heavy snow I guess.

Finally over to snow. With back edge rapidly approaching Im betting we don’t finish with anything more than a coating.

Now back to mostly rain with some sleet thrown in despite the temp falling to 34F. Just may not be cold enough to flip over during the heaviest of precip.

Heavy bag of wtf going on outside right now. Sleet, wet snow, maybe a little rain thrown in too? Coming down hard though. Layer of slush on cold surfaces. 35F.

HRRR 10:1 maps vs model ratio Not much difference in the lehigh valley where temps are going to be colder but down by 95 and the burbs, ratio's are only like 5:1/6:1 despite the heavy precip. That could still be dense enough to cause some issues on trees/powerlines.

for some reason, I don't believe there's going to be 5.6" in a hour in Burlington county tomorrow...

Great map, pretty much how I feel as well except I would probably make the 1-2" zone a c - 2", I'm still not convinced accumulating snow makes it to 95 despite some of the clown maps.

I have zero expectations along 95. Would be nice to squeeze out an inch or two but not expecting more than white rain. Lehigh valley looks solid though I still don't think those maps of 6-8" verify with it falling during the day. It will have to be snowing hard for that to happen despite the temps.

Euro blew chunks with the system today and it's on its own right now. I'd be weary especially with such a delicate set up, like most rain -> snow events are. Model's have been terrible with pushing the cold air in too quickly this season. When the GFS is showing it further NW, which has typically overdone the cold the most this year, it's a hard sell imo. You guys likely see snow, but I wouldn't expect more than a inch or two at this time.

Light rain and 41F at work in Trenton. Funny enough one of the roads I traveled to get to work had been salted... Municipalities must be itching to burn off their rock salt...Not expecting more than a few mangled flakes here.

I believe it, those winds were fierce as the line moved through in Levittown. Easily 50 MPH at least. Luckily there's no foliage yet so damage was minimal other than trash cans strewn about.

2 weeks ago this upcoming storm would have been a solid 4-6" region wide. Of course we finally get a great track and boundary level temps are scorching on top of the increased sun angle. Not expecting more than snow TV with maybe a slushy inch on the grass that is gone by the end of the day.

Agree with Mt Holly's maps. There's just no way we are seeing 4-6" like the 10:1 maps spit out after temps being in the 70's and temps remaining above freezing during the event. I wouldn't rule out a slushy inch or two though if the rates on the NAM verify. Use the snow depth maps and not the 10:1 maps on model output, it's a much more realistic outcome for this storm.

I think the first 10 days of this month will be snowless. A better pattern may establish itself after the 10th-15th but by then, you really need a lot of things to go right in order to get a decent event that isn't white rain. I wouldn't totally say winter is over but it's likely on life support. Would be nice to see a 6" storm to get me to average though. Hope for a weak Nino next winter...