The Iceman

4.55" since Friday night. October is looking like a below normal month in the long range. Is the the correlation cold october here = warm winter or is it just if it snows in October then winter's over?

4.1” of rain since Friday night. Impressive event. Looks like a brief lull this afternoon before another round of steady rain this evening/tonight.

.65” of rain overnight. Raw out there now...53 F with winds gusting 20-25 mph.

Flooding in pawleys island from the surge

First extreme wind warning just issued: https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1575134808707018752?s=20&t=ykf9_kXdUYDtrAeW2TQR1g

Lloyd D's bio: "Suicide and Brain Damage survivor".. Going for the X2.

Sarasota 115 mph

Pretty awesome loop of tonight's intensification(time sensitive): https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/2021/06/07/notable-hurricanes-that-impacted-tampa-bay-that-you-may-not-have-heard-about

Good

Only 11 days out

Another “likely” chance of rain turning out to be isolated showers… picked up .25” last night, nothing at all today and nothing really cooking either…

Hmm reading the enso charts looks like 1975-76 and 2000-01 were the other 2 3rd year nina's? Both weren't bad winters with 17.5" in 75-76 and 26.1" in 00-01 at PHL. Obviously not a large data set but I think many would take that if 3rd time follows the pattern.

Picked up .6" early this morning. Definitely a nice soaking for the area. Mon-Tues could be a nice soaking area wide with a coastal storm but still a wide range of solutions in the ensembles ranging from 1-3" to a complete whiff.

.7" overnight, cranked the humidity way up this morning. Grass still looking dead tho

Picked up some sprinkles yesterday, not even measurable. The garden is in dire straits besides tomato's and peppers even with watering once a day.

Looking like another dud for rain today for most of SE PA. Best forcing and instability look to be north and south of us. This sad line of sprinkles is likely it for most of the area. I'm currently at .71" for July with .6" of that falling in 20 minutes so it just immediately ran off. This is the antithesis of last summer where it never wanted to stop raining...

Looks like areas N and E will be the favored area's for severe today. From SPC:

This initial band of storms is racing out ahead of the front. The HRRR and 3K has that line dying as it hits the lehigh valley like what is happening then more storms fire ahead of the front down in SE PA between 3 and 6. Someone is definitely getting screwed though.

Made it to 97 yesterday. This morning feels even worse... I live on the Delaware canal and it is bone dry. They released water in anticipation of a big rain event last month that never materialized and now the river level is too low to provide water for the canal. Wherever drought guy is, he's finally right!

Wow Ping Pong size hail reported with that cell that just moved through S Philly heading into Gloucester. Usually don't see stones that large in these parts. NWUS51 KPHI 201910 LSRPHI PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 310 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0300 PM HAIL FOLSOM 39.90N 75.33W 05/20/2022 E1.50 INCH DELAWARE PA PUBLIC

I live on the Jersey border pretty much and I'll happily pay an extra 15 cents a gallon to pump my own gas in PA. I've had several self serve stations do the above. What they'll do is fill your car with plus or supreme since it costs significantly more. Caught one guy who did that when I got 40 bucks and my tank was barely over half when usually it'd be at least 3/4's full so I got out and looked at the pump and sure enough that was the case. I threatened to call the cops if he didn't give me my money back so at least I got 40 dollars of supreme for free... I was ready to deck him though since he had a shit eating grin after I called him out on it. I could tell he does it to people all the time.

timing and position of the front looks poor at the moment. Best forcing comes through late night and most models dissipate convection as it reaches the area. GFS has a shortwave come through monday afternoon though that may spark some storms.

Doesn't look too impressive and by the time it reaches SE PA, instability will be past peak. Looks like a nothing burger today.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a mod risk posted tomorrow if instability comes to fruition. Upper level support is there for bowing segments and tornadoes but it’s going to depend how unstable we can get.