The Iceman

I think the gfs is too cold. I’m not worried about ice at all down in the 95 corridor and even the surrounding burbs I think will be mostly ice free. Temps are going to hit 50. It’s going to have a hard time accreting even after temps fall below freezing. I think we at most see a coating of sleet at the end of the storm. Now areas n and w where temps will be closer to freezing during most of the precip, I’d be worried. Places like Lehigh Valley and out by Paul, I could definitely see a heavy ice event for you guys.

Euro was a big shift towards the GFS. Models converging on a solution or more shifts S possible? Pretty interesting set up.

The key is the strength of that high. Gfs has it at 1044 while the euro and nam are weaker with it at 1040(ecm) and 1038(nam) respectively. Strength of that high is going to determine the outcome of frozen. I’m impressed the GFS is holding serve but still skeptical. Btw those TT snow maps are trash, here are the pivotal which don’t show sleet as snow. Don’t want anyone thinking they have a shot of a foot out of this thing. Could be 2-4” of sleet though.

We have seen a tendency for the ECM to be too far NW in the last few weeks as I'm sure you painfully remember however, the GFS was too far SE in the previous system. The results ended up being somewhat in the middle of those 2 models and that's where I think we are headed again. Ice threat for the interior but mainly rain around 95 and the Philly metro area/NJ. But hey I'm just some random weenie that tries to forecast for fun. Won't be surprised if the 18z GFS trends a bit further N as none of the other globals budged at 12z. But who knows, maybe it scores the coup and most of us see some frozen out of this. I think I have more interest in the 2/7 time period for some frozen over a majority of the area though.

GFS on it's own right now though which is my one concern. CMC/UKMET both are too far north for everyone besides N and W and would be mostly rain for the philly metro area. GFS leading the way or is it overdoing the cold? How often do we see plain rain changing to freezing rain which is what the GFS depicts? You would think it would be more sleet than rain if the cold press is that strong.

Shades of 07 on that last GFS run. Would be 2 large sleet events back to back. However, there is still time to bring more snow into the equation especially N and W.

I’m disputing that 9” mark in lower makefield. I was over my siblings houses earlier who live there and there’s no way they saw more than we did.

Maybe Kuchera wasn’t bullshit after all…

Honking for what? flooding rains? But seriously, despite the big highs in place, it looks like we see the return of the big se ridge. Looks purely gradient driven so will depend if the cold air press can overcome the SE ridge. I see potential but it imo that set up favors rain for 95 with nw seeing frozen. Still time for things to change though.

8.5” storm total in Levittown. Mt Holly nailed this one, big kudos to them on a very difficult forecast! @MGorse

I emailed NWS mt holly this morning asking this very question and they said to include it in the storm total.

I’d trade 5 winters in a row of zero snow to be under that band

Looks like we got one more weenie band to get through and that should do it. Think we should stay snowing through at least 1 pm. Guessing we added another .5” since my last post bringing us to 8.5”

Ant, how’d you do up in Brooklyn?

L-Town FTW at least in PA for this one. We just barely got into some of those heavier bands last night for a few hours and it made a difference. My brother and sister in lower makefield and yardley said they have around 6-6.5” while we are up to 8”. Still snowing moderate too. Don’t think we hit double digits but 9 may be doable.

Drifts to 18” in spots here

8” in Levittown and still falling at a decent clip. Lots of drifting out there.

Take some videos! The wind down there must be insane if we are gusting in the 30 mph range this far inland.

Heaviest snow of the storm right now, eye balling at least 4”-4.5” right now. Think I’m in until 5 or 6 am to measure officially though. Winds beginning to howl.

Enjoy man! Curious to see if your blizzard warnings end up verifying. How much do you think you have so far?

Wind starting to pick up and the light fluffy nature of the snow is making it difficult to get a good measurement. Averaged around 2.5” measuring in multiple spots across the yard away from roofs and trees. 3” including this mornings snow. My snowboard is useless tonight though lol I think we are in good shape to hit warning criteria down here with the HRRR not tapering things off until noon tomorrow. I think between 2-6 am should see our heaviest stuff though or it may just be this steady .5”/hr stuff though until it lightens up. All in all pretty good storm so far down here. Would love to hear more reports down on SNJ. They look to be getting slammed. Definitely on track for my expectations of 6” though. I definitely recommend taking a night walk which I may do in a few hours. Feels like SNE powdah storm. I’m enjoying this one so far. Chasing just doesn’t have the same memorability as experiencing it in your backyard. No knock to anyone that chases though, different strokes for different folks.

Dude weren’t you only under a winter weather advisory? Plus the storm isn’t even close to over yet… storm is still on track for a large part of the sub forum. I know it sucks being on the wrong side of the gradient but there will be another storm where you get smoked while 95 east rains or sleets.

Looks to be 2” out there so far and coming down nicely. 2.5” including the .5” this morning. Going out at midnight for an official measurement though. Still have 12 hours to go and haven’t gotten into the true heavy stuff yet. Could be in for a real nice event here in Levittown.

Man you picked a great spot to chase. Hit the casinos and walk out on the boardwalk to experience blizzard conditions. Sounds like a great time. Hope you have a good time!

Me likey the 00z HRRR. Same with the 23z RAP. Please be right for once in their life cycle