The Iceman

Oh Canada!

well besides super bowl 52

Regarding the weekend threat, I think it’s foolish to be confident either way on the effects to the area. Probably won’t get a decent read on it until 00z Thursday. Right now leaning towards a miss SE just based on the seasonal trends but it’s close to being amplified enough to get good snows here. Fact is the models have struggled with the N stream all winter long and until those pieces are on land and properly sampled, I don’t think anyone can say definitely this is a miss or apps runner. A few minor changes to the N stream changes the outcome significantly. Will be a good tracker though but I don’t think anyone should become emotionally invested until we get much closer. Would be nice to get this one though after all of the misses this month including in one of our more favorable regimes.

Compared to average south of the mason dixon line has done pretty well this month same with SNJ and Delaware too. I think the lake effect areas of the Great Lakes have done good, same with Michigan/Wisconsin/Minnesota. The west coast got slammed in December and probably will again in February. It’s been a tough winter though for the Rockies, Midwest, and Northeast.

CMC has the storm too but it's just much slower with the Southern stream energy and doesn't start amplifying until day 10(and looks like it would be an apps runner). With how much Northern stream energy there is on the field, and the run to run changes we are seeing due to that, probably a good idea to not pay attention to this storm until next Weds or Thurs if it still exists by then.

CMC is a decent event next tues night/weds. Now the CMC rarely leads the way but that's a path where we could all see some snow out of it.

That's got to be "paid attendance" but actual attendance last night was easily no more than 15,000. There were so many empty seats plus tons on stubhub... pretty sure I saw seats 3 rows off the ice for 80 bucks, that's insane considering those are like $250+ face. It honestly reminded me of a pre season game. I think the fans have had it with the mediocrity, they were sold on this team being a contender once again this year and they are one of the worst teams in the league. I think we could see attendance fall to 06-07 level's if major changes don't happen. Hanging in the STH lounge and just shooting the shit with people, so many are just fed up and I mean some of these people are folks that have had tickets since the 70's/80's. They are a diehard fan base but any fan base can be pushed into apathy if the product isn't exciting and that's the biggest problem. The team doesn't just suck, they are boring and don't have really much young talent to look forward to in the future. I think if a Hinkie type GM came in and said we are tearing down the team with hopes we land top 5 talent in the next few drafts, fans would respond positively. Right now it's a team without a direction or identity and that is the worst combination.

PHL is currently sitting at 3.9" of snow this year. There's been 49 winters year to date with 4" or less at this time. Of those 49, only 12 featured normal or above normal snowfall on the year and almost all of those were Nino's. 08-09 was I think the only nina that finished with normal snowfall and it was a weaker Nina than this one. Historically, odds are not with us getting close to normal snowfall in a Nina with this little amount of snow so far.

Found this out yesterday as well. Thank you Biden! Flyers are a lost cause. Until they clear the front office of the dinosaurs hanging around still like Clarke and Holmgren, they'll be stuck in this cycle of mediocrity/sucking. Their current gm currently receives too much input from those clowns and it came out that the real reason Hextall was fired is because he shut them out. Those guy's have no business having any input to create a winning product in 2021-2022. This is definitely my last year having half season tickets until some big changes are made and I know I'm not alone on that front. I honestly think the dark times are just beginning especially if they keep the front office intact after this year.

Only 10 days out, what can go wrong? GFS has been hyping this time period though for several runs. Potential is there. But with how much changes we see in the N stream from run to run, highly, highly unlikely this verifies. Fun to imagine though...

Looks like after 30 mins of snow we are just about winding down. No accumulation.

Temp down to 35 but still mostly rain in Levittown. Maybe a few mangled flakes thrown in. I’ll be happy if things whiten up at this point.

Jeez, if you aren’t even changed over yet, than the NAM/Rgem were even too cold. Might be only a trace for most.

38F and rain. Rgem and NAM seems to have nailed the thermal profile over the meso’s. Not expecting much, maybe a coating.

CMC has like 48 hours of light snow from the 25th to the 27th as a clipper turns into a miller B. Would be pretty funny if that verified. 6-10" over a 48 hour period but that is a period to watch as the GFS has something similar but timing is just off a bit. 28-29th period also bears watching. Should at least have some threats to watch but without real blocking we are at the mercy of good timing. However, looks to be a bunch of cold air in place so that's a step.

IDK how well the HREF has done this winter but it was money with rain events over the summer: The HREF max also has a swath of 4-6" NW of 95 but I think that's pretty unlikely.

Weekend even is really only 3 days out now and GFS moved further SE with the low at 12z. 4-5 days away on the 2nd wave I guess but that is further SE as well and some models don't even have the 2nd wave. Stick a fork in it imo. Tomorrow looks good on the GFS though, in line with some of the meso's that bring 2-4" but still skeptical with the temps being what they are especially if the NAM's/RGEM's thermals are correct.

The weekend threat is dead, zero shot it comes back. Tomorrow looks more like a c-1" event more than 2-4" as temps seem borderline but we'll see. The long range HRRR is looking juicy but the latest NAM isn't so who knows. Rest of the month may be cold due to the +PNA but with the +ao/+nao it's going to take some luck to get a significant event. Best chances at snow may be from the clippers. Feb is looking like a punt month after the PNA goes back negative. Maybe March will rock?

If we can squeeze 1-3" on Thursday followed by 2-4" Saturday, I'd be content tbh

1.3” of rain wiped out the .75” of snow last night. Occasional snow pellets have fallen this morning with no accumulation. Wind starting to pick up but nothing crazy yet. 36F currently.

Temp up to 32 here, looks like a ton of rain on the way.

.75” changing over now though to sleet.

1/4” and mod snow. Changeover line ripping N/E, doubt we even get to an inch. Expected though.

This one’s looking like a total non event now for 95 s and east. all the trends from 12z pretty much bounced back to the west at 18z, not even an inch in most models. Good luck to the n and w folks, hopefully you guys get a decent thump. I’m ready for the next threat, whenever that will be.

Massive difference's between the 12z NAM @ 84 hours and the 06z GFS @ 90 hours. NAM is about 7 MB weaker and 200 miles further south. 06z GFS jumped about 50 miles east as well from 00z. Start of a trend towards the east like the ensembles? Still a lot of time for big changes. There's no way 95 stays snow the whole storm but if it trends to a track like the ensembles, it should be mostly frozen. Would be a ton of sleet I think.