The Iceman

Weekend even is really only 3 days out now and GFS moved further SE with the low at 12z. 4-5 days away on the 2nd wave I guess but that is further SE as well and some models don't even have the 2nd wave. Stick a fork in it imo. Tomorrow looks good on the GFS though, in line with some of the meso's that bring 2-4" but still skeptical with the temps being what they are especially if the NAM's/RGEM's thermals are correct.

The weekend threat is dead, zero shot it comes back. Tomorrow looks more like a c-1" event more than 2-4" as temps seem borderline but we'll see. The long range HRRR is looking juicy but the latest NAM isn't so who knows. Rest of the month may be cold due to the +PNA but with the +ao/+nao it's going to take some luck to get a significant event. Best chances at snow may be from the clippers. Feb is looking like a punt month after the PNA goes back negative. Maybe March will rock?

If we can squeeze 1-3" on Thursday followed by 2-4" Saturday, I'd be content tbh

1.3” of rain wiped out the .75” of snow last night. Occasional snow pellets have fallen this morning with no accumulation. Wind starting to pick up but nothing crazy yet. 36F currently.

Temp up to 32 here, looks like a ton of rain on the way.

.75” changing over now though to sleet.

1/4” and mod snow. Changeover line ripping N/E, doubt we even get to an inch. Expected though.

This one’s looking like a total non event now for 95 s and east. all the trends from 12z pretty much bounced back to the west at 18z, not even an inch in most models. Good luck to the n and w folks, hopefully you guys get a decent thump. I’m ready for the next threat, whenever that will be.

Massive difference's between the 12z NAM @ 84 hours and the 06z GFS @ 90 hours. NAM is about 7 MB weaker and 200 miles further south. 06z GFS jumped about 50 miles east as well from 00z. Start of a trend towards the east like the ensembles? Still a lot of time for big changes. There's no way 95 stays snow the whole storm but if it trends to a track like the ensembles, it should be mostly frozen. Would be a ton of sleet I think.

Thump isn't even looking that hot right now, will need to see some shifts SE to get into the good thump action. As it stands, most of 95 corridor is 1-2 inches, then sleet, then a boatload of rain. N and W of 95 is more in true thumpland right now (3-6") before changeover.

Agreed that this looks like a non event for 95 south and east. N and W should at least see a decent thump 4-8" potentially before changing over though. Further N and W you are, the better off you will be.

Happy birthday Agnes!

Clear signal on the ensembles too, long way out but in the advertised pattern setting up, could be a long tracker that is picked up early. It’s been on the op already for several days. This could be big dog of the winter. Could be a small-moderate threat before that storm as well in the 15-17th time frame.

Based on the ensembles, looks cold and dry next week after the front comes through with snow threats on the 15th/16th, 18th/19th, and possibly a big daddy come the 21st. Buckle in!

The calling out of long term members snow reports are childish and unnecessary. SP has been a member here for like 10+ years and has never been one to exaggerate totals.

If you didn’t measure right when the snow ended, you likely already lost an inch or so due to compaction. Very light and fluffy snow, I’m already down to 4” after it settled and the wind picked up.

What do you mean nws strikes out? Their final prediction map was pretty much spot on.

Wow 5 inches officially out there here in Levittown. Well actually more like 4.9 since It was just under the 5” line but we round up in these parts great event to get on the board! Snow beginning to taper off but looks like it should be light snow/flurries for a little bit longer.

Set multiple alarms and slept through them all woke up at like 230 and there was barely anything, I think only like a coating so it much of came fast and furious the last couple hours. looks to be 4-5” out there based on what’s on the railings but will check officially soon. Looks to be winding down as the back edge is coming through and we are down to light snow. Really nice little event.

Will be interesting to see what Mt Holly does this evening wrt totals. I'm thinking they shift the 4-6" zone E of 95 and 95 N and W shift to the 3-4" zone. It's really hard for guidance to nail down exact areas where the banding will set up though and in my experience it usually is further N and W than guidance indicates. Different system completely but remember last feb when the deform band looked like it would set up right on 95 from guidance even 12 hours out and it ended up in the NW burbs, something similar could end up happening here. Will be a fun one to watch unfold. I'm probably going to bed after the Flyers game and waking up at 2 am to watch it come in. Who knows, this could be the biggest event of the year

For our area, probably sometime around 2 am.

GFS, while not as robust as 6z, still honking for 3-5" for most in SE PA into NJ. I like my call from earlier still, 2-4" region wide with lolli's of 6" wherever the best banding sets up. Won't be surprised if someone gets stuck in the screw zone though between the decaying shortwave and where the coastal takes over and only gets an inch. Think that should be a fairly narrow area though(knowing my luck that will run right along the delaware river though ) Looks like it will basically be a 6 hour storm for most with a hour or two of heavy snow between 09z-12z.

Mt holly seems bullish, wonder if Philly and some areas in NJ see winter storm warnings later based on this map as I believe criteria is 4”. the 1/10 higher end forecast seems to indicate lollis up to 8”

Mt. Holly calling for 3 - 5” on my point and click.