The Iceman

Ratio's would likely be higher than 10:1 too. This is a MECS for 95 eastward as depicted by the Euro. Hopefully the GFS and CMC continue to trend towards it.

epic

Not really, it show's warning level snow up to the 95 corridor. I understand it screws N and W but 95 does pretty well plus it shifted like 100 miles west from 00z. Don't think it's close to being a done deal.

GEFS is leaning further west than the OP as well. Not too many complete whiffs. Might not be done shifting back west. Maybe the Euro was onto something after all. This was a pretty big swing at 12z with both the GFS and CMC. Not where we need it to be especially N and W but another shift like that and many of us will be very happy.

12z GFS isn't quite a Euro solution but it definitely took steps in that direction. Warning snows from the delaware river east.

Hard to have any confidence in the euro nailing this one while the other models remain so far east with how it has performed this month in this time frame. 06z gfs did take steps towards it though from 00z. Ensembles still have some big hitters too. Regardless of the coastal though, we should all see 2-4” from the northern stream system which is a decent consolation. On to 12z…

I’ll take p14 and call it a winter. It’ll be 2016 all over again.

Half of the gfs ensembles are a hit, several huge hitters in there as well(18”+). Still half are misses either East or west though.

Gfs is pretty good too. Good start to the 12z runs but we are still an eternity away, still a lot on the table and some areas could be fighting mixing if it continues back nw.

Oh Canada!

well besides super bowl 52

Regarding the weekend threat, I think it’s foolish to be confident either way on the effects to the area. Probably won’t get a decent read on it until 00z Thursday. Right now leaning towards a miss SE just based on the seasonal trends but it’s close to being amplified enough to get good snows here. Fact is the models have struggled with the N stream all winter long and until those pieces are on land and properly sampled, I don’t think anyone can say definitely this is a miss or apps runner. A few minor changes to the N stream changes the outcome significantly. Will be a good tracker though but I don’t think anyone should become emotionally invested until we get much closer. Would be nice to get this one though after all of the misses this month including in one of our more favorable regimes.

Compared to average south of the mason dixon line has done pretty well this month same with SNJ and Delaware too. I think the lake effect areas of the Great Lakes have done good, same with Michigan/Wisconsin/Minnesota. The west coast got slammed in December and probably will again in February. It’s been a tough winter though for the Rockies, Midwest, and Northeast.

CMC has the storm too but it's just much slower with the Southern stream energy and doesn't start amplifying until day 10(and looks like it would be an apps runner). With how much Northern stream energy there is on the field, and the run to run changes we are seeing due to that, probably a good idea to not pay attention to this storm until next Weds or Thurs if it still exists by then.

CMC is a decent event next tues night/weds. Now the CMC rarely leads the way but that's a path where we could all see some snow out of it.

That's got to be "paid attendance" but actual attendance last night was easily no more than 15,000. There were so many empty seats plus tons on stubhub... pretty sure I saw seats 3 rows off the ice for 80 bucks, that's insane considering those are like $250+ face. It honestly reminded me of a pre season game. I think the fans have had it with the mediocrity, they were sold on this team being a contender once again this year and they are one of the worst teams in the league. I think we could see attendance fall to 06-07 level's if major changes don't happen. Hanging in the STH lounge and just shooting the shit with people, so many are just fed up and I mean some of these people are folks that have had tickets since the 70's/80's. They are a diehard fan base but any fan base can be pushed into apathy if the product isn't exciting and that's the biggest problem. The team doesn't just suck, they are boring and don't have really much young talent to look forward to in the future. I think if a Hinkie type GM came in and said we are tearing down the team with hopes we land top 5 talent in the next few drafts, fans would respond positively. Right now it's a team without a direction or identity and that is the worst combination.

PHL is currently sitting at 3.9" of snow this year. There's been 49 winters year to date with 4" or less at this time. Of those 49, only 12 featured normal or above normal snowfall on the year and almost all of those were Nino's. 08-09 was I think the only nina that finished with normal snowfall and it was a weaker Nina than this one. Historically, odds are not with us getting close to normal snowfall in a Nina with this little amount of snow so far.

Found this out yesterday as well. Thank you Biden! Flyers are a lost cause. Until they clear the front office of the dinosaurs hanging around still like Clarke and Holmgren, they'll be stuck in this cycle of mediocrity/sucking. Their current gm currently receives too much input from those clowns and it came out that the real reason Hextall was fired is because he shut them out. Those guy's have no business having any input to create a winning product in 2021-2022. This is definitely my last year having half season tickets until some big changes are made and I know I'm not alone on that front. I honestly think the dark times are just beginning especially if they keep the front office intact after this year.

Only 10 days out, what can go wrong? GFS has been hyping this time period though for several runs. Potential is there. But with how much changes we see in the N stream from run to run, highly, highly unlikely this verifies. Fun to imagine though...

Looks like after 30 mins of snow we are just about winding down. No accumulation.

Temp down to 35 but still mostly rain in Levittown. Maybe a few mangled flakes thrown in. I’ll be happy if things whiten up at this point.

Jeez, if you aren’t even changed over yet, than the NAM/Rgem were even too cold. Might be only a trace for most.

38F and rain. Rgem and NAM seems to have nailed the thermal profile over the meso’s. Not expecting much, maybe a coating.

CMC has like 48 hours of light snow from the 25th to the 27th as a clipper turns into a miller B. Would be pretty funny if that verified. 6-10" over a 48 hour period but that is a period to watch as the GFS has something similar but timing is just off a bit. 28-29th period also bears watching. Should at least have some threats to watch but without real blocking we are at the mercy of good timing. However, looks to be a bunch of cold air in place so that's a step.

IDK how well the HREF has done this winter but it was money with rain events over the summer: The HREF max also has a swath of 4-6" NW of 95 but I think that's pretty unlikely.