The Iceman

NWS Blend @ 12z... seems in line with Mt. Holly's call

Jeeez, I literally posted it's likely crap, take a chill pill dude

Could you imagine if the NAM is right ... 44.9" at Toms River Whoever said Kuchera ratio is crap is likely right...still.. My mt. holly forecast is 4-11", largest range I've seen but very understandable. Would be amazed though if we see a foot+ around 95. This just seems like one to sit back and watch unfold. None of the model's had this snow as robust as it looks this morning. Most didn't have precip beginning until this afternoon including the latest HRRR. Even though most people are aware of the storm, I don't think many were expecting it to begin so early, afternoon commute could be a nightmare... Right now light snow is falling in Trenton.

I try not to drop the gloves in men's league

After 12z I'm revising c-2" N and W, 2-4" 95 4-8" at the shore. Won't be surprised if this is overdone though. May end up being a C-2" for most other than the shore.

Yep, I'm putting my money on the GFS. Probably 1-3" for most but maybe a warning level event at the shore. Oh well. On to next winter...

Meh, not interested in anything inside day 4 this year. 12z will be an apps runner rainstorm. Book it.

I think MECS/HECS is off the table, but the whiffs for 95 seem to be out of the picture for now too. Should be a solid 4-6" along 95 less west and more like 6-10" east. Not bad, should double snow totals in a lot of locations. Bummer though the Euro couldn't be once just this one time. What an awful model this winter.

18z euro wasn’t bad but it was a clear shift towards the gfs/cmc. Never in my life would I think the GFS would become the new king as it has this winter/

I hate to be an asshole but I hope if this screws us, it screws SNE too. I know words and wishes have no meaning to what is going to happen but I’d like them to be stuck in our misery

When are the water restrictions coming?

Meh I'll give it until 00z tonight before throwing in the towel but this one looks like a dud for pretty much everyone except the coast. Seasonal trend wins again. At least it will get warm soon.

I think 1-3-18 may be a good analog. Coastal scraper where snj get nailed. I’ll be shocked it the euro ends up being correct. 2-4” N and west 4-8” along 95 and 8-12”+ down by the shore, king gfs won’t be denied imo. Still solid event than what we’ve seen so far, just hope it doesn’t slip further east and make it solely a SNE storm. Hopefully we see that NW trend as we get closer but overnight runs we’re not encouraging except the euro. Who knows I think they are flying recon later on to ingest into the models but thae results from that could go either way.

Stolen from the mid atlantic thread. Increase from 06z. Haven't seen the individuals yet.

I was thinking the same thing. If you look at the CMC track, it really isn't all that much different than the Euro, it's much deeper but the precip shield is much smaller so we get grazed while SNE gets walloped. I could see that happening. I'll take 4-6" at this point though. Definitely not expecting the Euro solution until other globals catch on but I will say it looks like the GFS/CMC are following the Euro not the other way around. We still need 2 more days though to become confident. Lot's of time...

Set it on fire before you leave and file for the insurance money. Then you'll already be ahead of the game with the insurance claim and won't have to worry about 2 Ft of snow collapsing it. Problem solved.

Ratio's would likely be higher than 10:1 too. This is a MECS for 95 eastward as depicted by the Euro. Hopefully the GFS and CMC continue to trend towards it.

epic

Not really, it show's warning level snow up to the 95 corridor. I understand it screws N and W but 95 does pretty well plus it shifted like 100 miles west from 00z. Don't think it's close to being a done deal.

GEFS is leaning further west than the OP as well. Not too many complete whiffs. Might not be done shifting back west. Maybe the Euro was onto something after all. This was a pretty big swing at 12z with both the GFS and CMC. Not where we need it to be especially N and W but another shift like that and many of us will be very happy.

12z GFS isn't quite a Euro solution but it definitely took steps in that direction. Warning snows from the delaware river east.

Hard to have any confidence in the euro nailing this one while the other models remain so far east with how it has performed this month in this time frame. 06z gfs did take steps towards it though from 00z. Ensembles still have some big hitters too. Regardless of the coastal though, we should all see 2-4” from the northern stream system which is a decent consolation. On to 12z…

I’ll take p14 and call it a winter. It’ll be 2016 all over again.

Half of the gfs ensembles are a hit, several huge hitters in there as well(18”+). Still half are misses either East or west though.

Gfs is pretty good too. Good start to the 12z runs but we are still an eternity away, still a lot on the table and some areas could be fighting mixing if it continues back nw.