The Iceman

Had to drive my girlfriend down to northeast Philly so she could take care of the cats she’s pet sitting and side roads are already beginning to cave with moderate snow. The boulevard though is just mostly wet. Looks to to be at least an inch already down here but I’m just eye balling.

I’m actually in probably the best possible location in SE PA for this one being at the very tip of the lower keystone so hoping that pays off. My expectations are warning level snows, 6”. Root for me to get a foot though because that means you guys n and w will be getting higher totals too light snow has begun, good luck everyone… And if anyone is on the fringe I got a case of beer in the fridge, come on over for a snow party

.5” on the day which has melted. Waiting patiently now for the main show. Hopefully by the time i am done dinner we have some action.

This is at 10:1 not bad!

Just went for a walk in downtown Trenton over my lunch...light snow continuing to fall. Nothing really sticking on paved surfaces, probably about .5" on the grass and unpaved surfaces. A nice little appetizer until the main show later on.

I think 6-10" for 95 corridor seems like a safe bet now. 3-6" N and W with less as you head further away. East of 95 8-12" with 12"+ at the coast. Let's hope for some good surprises here on out and bump these totals up a bit more

GFS just ticked back west at 12z, there's also signs that it may come a bit further west. Coastal hasn't even developed yet.

You're cleaning up with the front right now Paul, I don't think any model had your area at almost 2" already. Even though you may be too far west for the best banding of the coastal, you may still score a decent event.

Yeah I like 6-8" right now with an outside shot of double digits. My baseline is warning level event and I think we'll hit that. At least we won't have to worry about sleet this go around.

NWS Blend @ 12z... seems in line with Mt. Holly's call

Jeeez, I literally posted it's likely crap, take a chill pill dude

Could you imagine if the NAM is right ... 44.9" at Toms River Whoever said Kuchera ratio is crap is likely right...still.. My mt. holly forecast is 4-11", largest range I've seen but very understandable. Would be amazed though if we see a foot+ around 95. This just seems like one to sit back and watch unfold. None of the model's had this snow as robust as it looks this morning. Most didn't have precip beginning until this afternoon including the latest HRRR. Even though most people are aware of the storm, I don't think many were expecting it to begin so early, afternoon commute could be a nightmare... Right now light snow is falling in Trenton.

I try not to drop the gloves in men's league

After 12z I'm revising c-2" N and W, 2-4" 95 4-8" at the shore. Won't be surprised if this is overdone though. May end up being a C-2" for most other than the shore.

Yep, I'm putting my money on the GFS. Probably 1-3" for most but maybe a warning level event at the shore. Oh well. On to next winter...

Meh, not interested in anything inside day 4 this year. 12z will be an apps runner rainstorm. Book it.

I think MECS/HECS is off the table, but the whiffs for 95 seem to be out of the picture for now too. Should be a solid 4-6" along 95 less west and more like 6-10" east. Not bad, should double snow totals in a lot of locations. Bummer though the Euro couldn't be once just this one time. What an awful model this winter.

18z euro wasn’t bad but it was a clear shift towards the gfs/cmc. Never in my life would I think the GFS would become the new king as it has this winter/

I hate to be an asshole but I hope if this screws us, it screws SNE too. I know words and wishes have no meaning to what is going to happen but I’d like them to be stuck in our misery

When are the water restrictions coming?

Meh I'll give it until 00z tonight before throwing in the towel but this one looks like a dud for pretty much everyone except the coast. Seasonal trend wins again. At least it will get warm soon.

I think 1-3-18 may be a good analog. Coastal scraper where snj get nailed. I’ll be shocked it the euro ends up being correct. 2-4” N and west 4-8” along 95 and 8-12”+ down by the shore, king gfs won’t be denied imo. Still solid event than what we’ve seen so far, just hope it doesn’t slip further east and make it solely a SNE storm. Hopefully we see that NW trend as we get closer but overnight runs we’re not encouraging except the euro. Who knows I think they are flying recon later on to ingest into the models but thae results from that could go either way.

Stolen from the mid atlantic thread. Increase from 06z. Haven't seen the individuals yet.

I was thinking the same thing. If you look at the CMC track, it really isn't all that much different than the Euro, it's much deeper but the precip shield is much smaller so we get grazed while SNE gets walloped. I could see that happening. I'll take 4-6" at this point though. Definitely not expecting the Euro solution until other globals catch on but I will say it looks like the GFS/CMC are following the Euro not the other way around. We still need 2 more days though to become confident. Lot's of time...

Set it on fire before you leave and file for the insurance money. Then you'll already be ahead of the game with the insurance claim and won't have to worry about 2 Ft of snow collapsing it. Problem solved.