The Iceman

Just my opinion, but I think this will be mainly rain for the 95 corridor. Don't think it will accrete too much even if the temp hovers around 31-32. Temps going to be 70 today and we don't fall below freezing until the event really starts and even then it's going to be 30-32F. Add in the heavy precip rates, and I just don't see much ice accretion on anything but especially pavement. Lehigh Valley/Pocono's is a different story, I'd be concerned if I lived up there.

Temp went to 42 down to 31 and easily had a 50 mph gust with that squall. Whitened the ground too. Neat little event.

Very true, gfs is likely overdoing the cold air push, however I still think this system will be more frozen than liquid. CAD should hold up well with that strong high to the N. Leaning towards more sleet than anything though right now for the 95 area and suburbs. Still an eternity out in time but right now, 1-3” snow thump to sleet to light rain/drizzle seems like a fair guess. Looks like a Lehigh valley special at this moment though they also likely change to sleet too, just think they will very likely be all frozen unless the models are way off with that high strength or position.

Flizzard conditions going on outside right now. Wiggum rule strikes again.

Trending towards the typical thump to mix ending as drizzle even with the track as west as it is. The majority of precip is looking frozen and should remain that way as long as that high stays in that position. NW of the fall line will do better but pretty classic CAD signature showing up at this time frame is encouraging, that typically gets stronger and more pronounced with time. Could be a solid event from 95 N and W. Potential for Lehigh valley to see their biggest event of the year.

68F out, can we hit 70?

upcoming pattern late month into early March is kinda similar to March 15... heights are more focused in the Alaska domain though which should provide more cold air... we made out like bandits during that time period

It's going to be a warm one today, already sitting at 58F at 9 am. Something tells me we are going to go above the projected high of 66F today and make a run at 70F.

Looking ahead, the 2nd half of the month warm up looks to be short lived. If we can head into the beginning of march with this look below, winter almost certainly hasn't shown it's last hand. We'd have a cold air source to work with even though we still don't have blocking. -NAO becomes less important in March with shorter wavelengths, most important thing is to have cold air in place which would be the case with the -EPO.

I love the dedication!

Bottomed out at 15F last night. After yesterday I'm up to 17.25" on the year, about 6 inches below normal seasonal snowfall. Next 2 weeks look pretty bleak but if we can get one or two minor-moderate events in March, we could certainly hit normal snowfall in these parts; something that has never happened in a 2nd year moderate-strong nina.

Somehow still snowing here in lower bucks. Roads are starting to get slick. Be careful everyone coming home from their super bowl parties.

Down to light snow now but we managed to squeeze out .2” over the last two hours to settle at 3” even on the grass in Levittown. Not expecting any more accumulation as heavier echoes have moved east. Great little storm!

Slowly but surely still accumulating in Levittown faster than melting. Just under 3” on the event, 2.8” officially. Still snowing light-moderate at times. Hope we can hit 3”. Beautiful day outside regardless.

Fwiw the HRRR doesn’t taper things off in SE PA until 5 or 6 pm this evening adding up possibly another inch. But we are kind of just plateau’d right now at 2.2” despite being under a decent band because of the temps and sun melting things as fast as it falls. Still a very nice winter day and expectations have been smashed down this way especially with how warm it has been the last few days. Wiggum rule ftw…

Back to mod snow over the last hour. Up to 2.2” here in Levittown.

Looks like barring redevelopment snow should be pretty much over soon? Looks between 1.5- 2” here all on grassy/cold surfaces. Side roads have a layer of slush beginning to build but mostly just wet. Looks like the heaviest rates set up well n and w of 95 as some meso guidance was hinting last night.

Had a sleet shower move through a little bit ago, waiting on the next batch. Temp down to 40 which is actually colder than the HRRR has us.

HRRR just keeps getting better and better every hour.. bulk of the accumulation falls between the early morning hours until around 9 am but it keeps light snow in SE PA well into the afternoon…

Temp down to 45 here but feels colder.

Temps won’t matter if this thump comes to fruition. Bulk of the heaviest stuff falls overnight into early morning, I’m actually feeling pretty good about this one.

Nam never fails inside 24 hours, lock it in.

Flower show will be cancelled this year due to the massive Haboob’s blowing in from the Lehigh valley. The wildfires up there block out the sun for a time. Delaware river runs dry by June. Tough times ahead.

There is a jet streak right over the area providing extra lift as the precip develops. Agreed it isn’t that juicy of a system but that should enhance rates for a time.

2-4” for most on the latest HREF mean: 4-6 on the ensemble max: I think mt holly will issue advisories on the afternoon update unless they really think it’s going to have trouble sticking due to the recent high temps.