The Iceman

Looking good for 2-4 “ region wide with a lolli of 6” somewhere probably between 95 and the coast. Should be ratio’s higher than 10:1 based on the couple soundings I’ve looked at. All in all should be a nice little event to get on the board for those stuck at a trace.

Such a wide range of solutions at this time frame. Could see anywhere from .5” - 4”. Hopefully things trend juicier tonight and lock most of us in for 2-4”/3-5”. I just want an inch though to remind myself that it can snow in these parts 2” would be great just so I can say we beat 2019-2020.

Good post Newman. Verbatim that’s a really solid look and should provide multiple chances at SECS events but we’ve seen a few times this winter that ridge in the west gets kicked down the lane or gets stuck in the d10-15 range. Would like to see it get into the day 7-9 range before getting hyped. We’ve seen a few head fakes so far on the pattern improving and it keeps getting pushed back. The MJO forecasts have been brutal so far this winter but if we can actually push into phase 8, that will increase the chances this comes to fruition. Right now though you really have to watch it day by day since it changes so frequently. Anyway I’m cautiously optimistic as well for mid month but definitely would like to see it keep progressing forward as we hit the day 7-10 range these next few days. Hopefully most of us at least get on the board tomorrow to kick things off.

Looking less and less potent as we get closer. I’m hoping for an inch to at least get on the board.

Looking more and more like one of those disaster winters where every storm breaks the opposite of where we want it.

I'm way more concerned about a miss east like the GFS than mixing for Friday. A decent amount of EPS members look like the GFS. It's about 50-50 split between BM track and OTS.

Cape May looks like they're getting slammed. Ralph any reports down there?

It screwed the 95 crowd too. NW never really had a good shot of even lower accumulation on this one that I saw. 95 had several models showing 1-3" with some plus that and most of us will have gotten a few flurries and that's it. Not surprised though, was never high on this event due to the sharp gradient. Had a feeling it would set up SE of the river. Oh well, onto maybe Friday? Or will we top the winter of futility(19-20)?

Yep outside of extreme s nj and Delaware, there was always a ton of uncertainty with how far N the precip shield would make it and I think mt holly did an excellent job highlighting that. It’s frustrating for sure for us snow lovers that wanted even an inch or two but I can’t say I’m surprised the storm had a tough time punching through the dry air and most outlets did a good job highlighting that. They were damned either way with such a tight gradient. Btw looking right now like the NAM clowned the gfs and euro, it had a brief NW tick last night but overall at 24 hours out, it did the best. Globals were too far nw with the extent of the precipitation.

Looks like dry air wins the day around 95. Congrats s nj, you guys deserve it.

I think east of 95 and south of 195 is going to be the dividing line between the haves and have nots. Would love to see another tick NW at 00z but thinking my area has a better shot of smoking cirrus than decent accumulation as of now. Really like mt hollys forecast, thinking they are going to nail this one. PHL is going to be a really tough forecast. Could see the airport getting 4-6” while most areas of the city only see 1-2”. Going to be a tight gradient for sure. We will know by tomorrow morning how things are going to go down lol

I've pretty much thrown in the towel for any hopes of a normal winter here. At this point, just hoping to avoid a repeat of the 2019-20 complete disaster(1.5"). I'll pretty much be happy with one 4-6" type event and maybe a few C-1" minor events. If we make it through this month with zero accumulating(> 1") events though, we might be looking at record level's of futility again. Nina Feb's are always warm here. Would be pretty ridiculous to see 2 bottom 3 winters of all time in a 3 year period. You have to go back to 1949 -1951 to get 2 winters with <5" of snow in a 3 year period(and those were back to back, 1949 -50 had 2" and 50-51 had 4.2". There's never been a period in PHL history that had 2 <1" seasons in 3 years. Still early to be thinking record futility but with no real significant snow chances in sight, it is starting to come into mind. I said in my contest post that it was first accumulating snow > Trace though it should have been > 1". I(and many others in this subforum) haven't seen that yet. I don't really count Dec. 8 or 27th as actual events as they were light snow showers with no accumulation.

Looking like all virga here. Returns getting ripped to shreds as it comes down off the plateau as predicted.

Pretty sure we had one event of 1-3” in mid January that was melted by the next day and that was that lol

Will this winter be as bad as 19-20? No snow chances in sight.

That’s absolutely false. We had the wettest July on record and none of that precipitation was from tropical storms, it was all from the pattern in place. You your narrative of the epic may drought went completely off the rails even without the tropical storms. Btw if it’s not going to snow, the ground isn’t going to epically freeze for the water to run off. This isn’t New England. You’re not going to get 1-2 ft of hard frozen ground with lows in the upper 20s every night and highs well above freezing. And if seasonal snowfall was such a vital part of groundwater replenishment in these parts, why wasn’t there an epic drought back in 19-20 when most areas had single digit snowfall for the year? I predict your call of epic drought conditions will go the same way as the call back in May. You cannot start calling for a potential mega drought after 30 days of slightly below normal precipitation. It’s ludicrous especially coming on the heels of one of the wettest years on record and several precipitation events on the near horizon. It doesn’t look dry the next 15 days, snow or not.

You said this last may and we had like the wettest summer on record

Yup, was hoping we’d at least score a minor event but not looking likely. I think below average winter is looking very likely. As long as the pna stays negative, even a -nao/-ao isn’t going to save us, just make it so that any system that stays south will be weak and sheared out. Unless the pac side changes radically, this winter is looking like a dud. Don’t think it will be all that warm though, just more of the same of what we’ve seen. Cold and dry followed by warm up, rain, and repeat. Hopefully we see a few front end thumps… root for a weak nino next year…

20-21st seems more like a N and W event imo. Looks like a classic rain along 95 with snow in upper bucks/lehigh. No high to keep the cold air in place along the coastal plain. But if the long range looks verify, late dec/early jan should be VERY fun. I know this is an OP look, but this is a great pattern even though we may be risking suppression. Obviously would like to see the ridge in the west pop a bit more but that is a strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO look. Has some ensemble support too but the ensembles still hold on to the -PNA which throws a wrench in things but would still be more white than wet.

Because I’d rather live in hell than a place like Altoona.

I think the most impressive thing about the record highs yesterday was that there wasn’t an ounce of sunshine at least in my area. It was cloudy all day. If we had gotten the sun out, places probably would of hit 80.

12z GEFS looks better for 12/19 - 12/20 at H5 than the OP imo. Better heights in Greenland plus the trough out west isn't dug as far south. IMO that may be enough to flatten the SE ridge enough to give most of us a thump on that storm. Still 9 days out, but not a bad signal at this range. Will have to see how it evolves this week but it's at least our first real chance at accumulating snow this year even if the most likely scenario is snow to rain.

12/19-20 may be something to watch for a thump to light rain event. Temps are marginal but with a strong high in quebec, the set up could easily yield a solid thump especially for NW areas but even 95 could see some accumulation with some slight adjustments mainly to the SE ridge. If the front on next thurs/fri can beat it down a bit more than progged, it may be the first real threat of the year. Still in the day 8-9 range so a lot can change obviously but something to keep an eye on.

What are the cheapest flights you've found? I would love to do this for my bday but everything I'm seeing is $500+ round trip and I don't think that's in the cards just before Christmas.

Looks like this warm up will only last through next week. GEFS and EPS both have building heights in the Greenland area around D10 along with a -EPO. While there may be a lag in our sensible weather due to the SE ridge needing to be beaten down, you can see a light at the end of the tunnel. End of the 06z GEFS looks pretty decent. Way better than the shutout look of next week. I was skeptical this pattern would break down this quickly but guidance is showing that to be the case. Hopefully it stays consistent but overall we should be tracking some threats possibly as early as the 20th.