The Iceman

Meanwhile the FV-3(I believe it is taking over for the NAM soon) slams into NYC after being at the end of LI at 12z. Seems like the mesos are intent on the storm getting captured but the globals aren't biting yet. Think it comes down to how strong it gets the next 12-18 hours.

EPS shifted west again though. Many members like the CMC/ICON. Interesting. Huge spread though for 60 hours out.

18Z NAM shifted east again. Wonder if it is picking up on a weaker system? Henri really needs to start getting his act together tonight or the little shot we have is going bye bye. Need a stronger system to get pulled back west. If it stays disorganized, I think we will see a shift back towards the east unfortunately. Debating taking a trip up to CT or LI on Sunday depending where the track narrows.

Will be very interesting to see the 12z EPS members. 06z shifted west towards LI while the OP was still more towards RI/Mass and the 12z run followed suite. If the west trend continues at 12z with the EPS, there's a much more realistic shot of this storm effecting the area with at least heavy rain.

significant shift west by the Euro at 12z. 00z hit Mass... 12z is into LI. Another shift like that at 00z and it's very similar to the UKIE.

If the UKIE happens, some of us will need a bigger boat...

GEFS doesn't have any members with NJ landfalls, but a decent amount loop the system back into our area which would bring the heavy rain threat like the CMC/RGEM/ICON all show.

CMC joins the rain train

The HRRR shows this. It also tucks the storm just E of NYC. Would be tons of rain for NJ and SE PA if that occurs. But it's also the HRRR so...

Yikes, that blob of 6"+ rain is right over my house. With already over 5" on the month, that would devastating around here flooding wise. Won't take much at all to get the creeks and streams around here over their banks with all the rain recently.

Seems like you're in a relative screw zone with rainfall in SE PA. I'm over 5" on the month now with many places near me also above 4". Delaware county has been in a rain hole this month.

Picked up 1.6" last night, light show was tremendous though. We had some good booms from just after midnight until about 230 am. Needless to say didn't get much sleep between the tor warnings going off on my phone and flash flood warnings. Felt like the storm was on top of us for hours based on the lightning/thunder but it really only downpoured for 30 mins or so.

12z GEFS is pretty interesting wrt Henri. There's a cluster of members that bring it into the Jersey shore now. Big time west trend over the last 24 hours. The storm looks to be getting it's act together now. Seems like the stronger members are further west while the weaker one's stay off to the east. Who here has a shore house I can ride out the storm at

Yeah we've gone from 1-2" possible on Monday to basically nothing now. Just humidity and cloudy skies. The hrrr and nam give 95 east basically a trace. The rgem suite though has 1-2" for the area with the mesos kind of in between but leaning more towards the nam with .25-.5". With the further west track though I'm leaning towards the HRRR and NAM being correct. Lehigh valley should still get a good soaking but nothing like the 3-5" being forecasted earlier in the week.

Eagles almost moved to arizona because of their owner... they still drew 55,000 fans a game the year that took place despite their 3rd straight losing season so it had nothing to do with attendance. Athletics moved in 1955 and were the 2nd pro team in the city Warriors moved in 1962 and were the 2nd pro team in the city Pittsburgh struggles to support their ONE franchise when they aren't doing well. I doubt you watch the Pirates like most Pittsburghers when their team sucks but if you did, you'd see they are lucky to draw 10K a night despite having the nicest park in baseball. Once Sid retires, I'm sure that the rumors of moving to KC or Houston will fire up again unless daddy Bettman gifts the franchise another generational talent so that their 'diehard fans' don't abandon the team(again).

95F/ 73 DP for a heat index of 105F. It's a scorcher. Looks like most of the convection will be limited to NE PA maybe into parts of the LV. SE PA looks to be in the clear today. Just not enough shear to get things going despite the instability.

None of them have that complex forming over north central PA at the moment. Development looks to be further east than progged which should get the convection into N and W areas at least and not dissipate like the models had shown previously. Still iffy about SE PA/NJ though.

We'll see how things play out the next few hours but today honestly looks almost identical to yesterday. Line forming in western/central PA that will be decaying by the time it reaches SE PA in the evening due to the loss of heating. It may survive longer though as instability is higher than yesterday plus mt holly mentioned that things may take longer to cool off this evening. N and W will have the best shot at severe while 95 may get some outflow winds and a brief heavy downpour.

Line fell apart as it got to my area but still managed to pick up .2" of rain. We had the outflow boundary blow through with some sub severe gusts but not much rainfall and no lightning/thunder. Today is going to be brutal. 76F currently, dew point at 73.

Relocation threats due to low attendance: Pitt 3 - Philly 0

This thread didn't age well. Much of SE PA and NJ are 125 - 150% above normal rainfall the last 90 days. Lehigh Valley is around normal.

Even the HRRR has been useless today and it's initialized with the latest radar each hour. All the models were totally lost today with the convection.

Pretty weird how they left Burlington county out of the watch. Like north and south of them in NJ both have a watch but they don't. Timing wise, areas to the N and W have a better shot of seeing severe than 95 area imo. Doesn't look like the main line will get here until 7 or 8 and by then instability will begin to wane. I'll be pretty surprised if it holds together for most of the area in 95. Chester/Berks/Lehigh looks to have the best shot.