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The Iceman

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  1. The Iceman
    Confirmed tornado now in south jersey
  2. The Iceman
    Cell in south jersey ramping up. Has eyes on the Philly metro area if it continues on its current heading..
  3. The Iceman
    On a side note, the Delaware is now forecasted to crest just below moderate flood stage in Trenton and moderate at Washington crossing. Will be something to watch as this morning it was forecasted to only reach action stage.
  4. The Iceman
    My buddy lives on Davisville and I just checked in on him and he said no damage there. On radar looked like it went north of there.
  5. The Iceman
    Confirmed large and dangerous tornado near willow grove
  6. The Iceman
    Big couplet on that Tor warned cell. That could be producing.
  7. The Iceman
    Steady rain for the last hour. About .5" in addition to the .5" this morning brings us up to an inch. We ll see if that heavy stuff works it's way east or just trains to the west.
  8. The Iceman
    Learn to read and stop misquoting me, it is beyond childish. Are you 12?
  9. The Iceman
    No offense, but can you read? Please quote me where I said it has diminished for all of SE PA? I specifically said the 95 corridor. 1-2" of rain over 3 hours isn't going to cause widespread flash flooding. I posted the HREF maps above, the heaviest rates at 1 hour, 3 hours, and 6 hours are all N and W of the 95 corridor.
  10. The Iceman
    Considering Scranton is already closing in on 2", it's pretty safe to say it's going to bust low up there.
  11. The Iceman
    who knows, maybe the RGEM scores a coup, but I trust the HREF over any single mesoscale model.
  12. The Iceman
    This is the highest 1 hr rates on the HREF as well: heaviest rates up into upper bucks and lehigh valley
  13. The Iceman
    Latest HREF also following other guidance showing the heaviest rates will be N and W of 95. The flash flooding threat has significantly decreased this morning for the 95 corridor.
  14. The Iceman
    HREF tor threat is very impressive around 00z tonight. SE PA and central/south NJ have sig tor means between 3 and 4+. Very impressive for this area:
  15. The Iceman
    I will add that the risk of Delaware River flooding has increased with this shift north. If large area's of NE PA and NW NJ receive 4-8" of rain, the river will most likely go above flood stage even if area's further south only see an inch of rain. Right now the forecast is only for the river to hit action stage but I don't think it was based on those area's further upstream receiving that much rain.
  16. The Iceman
    Agreed, I think the high risk flood outlook needs to be shifted further N and W with their next update. Models are now converging that the bulk of the heaviest precip will be N and W of 95. The TOR threat has increased significantly though for the 95 area especially if we destabilize this afternoon. If the low does track as far N as the NAM/EURO project, we could have a repeat of the 7/28 tornado outbreak. Pretty impressive parameters depicted on the NAM.
  17. The Iceman
    New 12z NAM is north like the euro. Only 1-1.5" for much of SE PA. 3Km NAM is even less than that. Tornado threat now looking like the more concerning issue for Philly and Burbs as opposed to flooding. N and W burbs get crushed though.
  18. The Iceman
    I haven't seen the 06z euro but 00z is pretty much only 1-2" for much of SE PA. GFS is trending that way as well. We'll have to see how the day unfolds. Latest HRRR is still on track for 2-4" but SE PA stays dry until around 00z tonight then 2-4" falls in a 6 hour time period. At .5" for the event so far but rain has stopped and sun is even poking through the clouds at times.
  19. The Iceman
    Looking at guidance, it seems se pa should be dry for the remainder of the day. Then we get a 6 hour blast of heavy rain sometime this evening as the low approaches. The further n and w guidance definitely seems to be verifying, heaviest amounts will be LV into the Poconos.
  20. The Iceman
    The majority of those totals fall in like a span of 6 hours too. It's going to be fast and hard hitting.
  21. The Iceman
    18z nam and GFS(along with the 12z euro) are very concerning in regard to river flooding. 4-6"+ in the headwaters of the Delaware and Schuylkill combined with 2-4" further south would be bad news for much of the area.
  22. The Iceman
    So far with the 12z globals we have the GFS with the heaviest axis of rain N and W of 95, the CMC with the heaviest axis South and West of 95, and the UKMET with the heaviest axis right along 95(which also matches the NAM). It's summer's version of model roulette.
  23. The Iceman
    Much like our area, they are also running 150% - 200% above normal precip this month so far.
  24. The Iceman
    meso models are hinting at convection this evening bringing .5-1"+ in places. Not good, we need all the dry days we can get in the lead up to Ida's remnants.
  25. The Iceman
    Yeah but the downside to that is almost all of the rain falls in like a 6-9 hour period. This is the latest nam and the vast majority of it falls in a 6 hour period.
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