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The Iceman

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  1. The Iceman
    New 12z NAM is north like the euro. Only 1-1.5" for much of SE PA. 3Km NAM is even less than that. Tornado threat now looking like the more concerning issue for Philly and Burbs as opposed to flooding. N and W burbs get crushed though.
  2. The Iceman
    I haven't seen the 06z euro but 00z is pretty much only 1-2" for much of SE PA. GFS is trending that way as well. We'll have to see how the day unfolds. Latest HRRR is still on track for 2-4" but SE PA stays dry until around 00z tonight then 2-4" falls in a 6 hour time period. At .5" for the event so far but rain has stopped and sun is even poking through the clouds at times.
  3. The Iceman
    Looking at guidance, it seems se pa should be dry for the remainder of the day. Then we get a 6 hour blast of heavy rain sometime this evening as the low approaches. The further n and w guidance definitely seems to be verifying, heaviest amounts will be LV into the Poconos.
  4. The Iceman
    The majority of those totals fall in like a span of 6 hours too. It's going to be fast and hard hitting.
  5. The Iceman
    18z nam and GFS(along with the 12z euro) are very concerning in regard to river flooding. 4-6"+ in the headwaters of the Delaware and Schuylkill combined with 2-4" further south would be bad news for much of the area.
  6. The Iceman
    So far with the 12z globals we have the GFS with the heaviest axis of rain N and W of 95, the CMC with the heaviest axis South and West of 95, and the UKMET with the heaviest axis right along 95(which also matches the NAM). It's summer's version of model roulette.
  7. The Iceman
    Much like our area, they are also running 150% - 200% above normal precip this month so far.
  8. The Iceman
    meso models are hinting at convection this evening bringing .5-1"+ in places. Not good, we need all the dry days we can get in the lead up to Ida's remnants.
  9. The Iceman
    Yeah but the downside to that is almost all of the rain falls in like a 6-9 hour period. This is the latest nam and the vast majority of it falls in a 6 hour period.
  10. The Iceman
    Interesting that WPC has the axis of heavy rain further south than Mt. Holly's briefing package. Regardless, 3-5" region wide is going to cause both flash flooding and river flooding with how wet August has been for most of the area. Most of the region is running 150% - 200%+ above normal for the month.
  11. The Iceman
    I know you yinzers have trouble reading but there is a western pa forum FYI https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/10-upstate-new-yorkpennsylvania/
  12. The Iceman
    Heavy rain threat looking like a big fail today/tonight. Yesterday's 30% chance was way more active compared to today's 60% chance with nothing on radar. Gonna need the break though as Ida's remnants look to bring a solid 2-4" mid week.
  13. The Iceman
    After Henri's rain, now sitting at 7.2" on the month. 24.6" over the last 90 days. So much for the summer of drought some were calling for back in May.
  14. The Iceman
    2.1" on the storm after the heavy shower today and rain last night. 7.2" on the month now in Levittown. Drove by the river coming home from work and it was pretty high. Looks like it'll crest just below flood stage but it was cool to look at with the fast flow and debris in the water.
  15. The Iceman
    Rain started back up again about an hour ago, nothing heavy, just steady. .1" so far tonight. Wondering if some of those heavy echoes currently in Lehigh valley and Poconos will rotate down this way overnight. They look to be getting slammed though, some places with already 4-5"+ and no sign of letting up either. I think chances of some river flooding, albeit minor, have definitely increased. That's a pretty large area seeing 2-5"+ of rain in a pretty short period of time. Pretty much the entire length of the Delaware river in pa/NJ down to the tidal region is over 2" of rain and at least another inch+ still to go.
  16. The Iceman
    Upstream Delaware river basin is getting dumped on right now. They missed last night thankfully but looks like that batch of heavy rain is going to park up there tonight. Looking like that widespread 2-4" could verify. Could bring some hydo issues Tuesday along the river.
  17. The Iceman
    Some of the models show an additional 1-2" overnight for much of the area as the precip pivots around the low in NY. They're also showing widespread 2-4"+ in the Delaware river headwaters. Will be interesting to see how much it rises on Monday. Right now Mt Holly thinks it will crest just below flood stage but I believe it can change if some of those widespread 2-4" totals verify in NW NJ/NE PA/SNY.
  18. The Iceman
    Pretty crazy how the really heavy totals cut off right at the Delaware river.
  19. The Iceman
    Rain tapering off now, just some sprinkles now. 1.4", looks like that's it for now.
  20. The Iceman
    1.25" overnight, currently steady rain which looks to have been the case for much of the night. Maybe will see some heavy stuff this morning as it pivots?
  21. The Iceman
    Rain beginning to pick up in Levittown. Nothing heavy yet but a steady moderate rain.
  22. The Iceman
    Light rain on and off the last hour in Levittown. Heavier returns beginning to make their way on shore now. Going to be an interesting next few hours.
  23. The Iceman
    This area circled looks like they are going to be slammed. 2-4" with locally more imo
  24. The Iceman
    The models that were further west yesterday had Henri much stronger than it is currently. It's clear that it's lack of rapid strengthening which was forecasted to occur overnight never happened and with a weaker system the storm shifted east. It honestly doesn't even look that great this morning. Should still see some showers/period of rain but the flood threat seems pretty minimal now in these parts despite the watch. Edit: 06z icon and nam but show flooding rains for se pa but I wont be surprised if that area ticks north with time due to the further east track. I think it ends up coming it at RI.
  25. The Iceman
    Meanwhile the FV-3(I believe it is taking over for the NAM soon) slams into NYC after being at the end of LI at 12z. Seems like the mesos are intent on the storm getting captured but the globals aren't biting yet. Think it comes down to how strong it gets the next 12-18 hours.
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