The Iceman

Yeah we've gone from 1-2" possible on Monday to basically nothing now. Just humidity and cloudy skies. The hrrr and nam give 95 east basically a trace. The rgem suite though has 1-2" for the area with the mesos kind of in between but leaning more towards the nam with .25-.5". With the further west track though I'm leaning towards the HRRR and NAM being correct. Lehigh valley should still get a good soaking but nothing like the 3-5" being forecasted earlier in the week.

Eagles almost moved to arizona because of their owner... they still drew 55,000 fans a game the year that took place despite their 3rd straight losing season so it had nothing to do with attendance. Athletics moved in 1955 and were the 2nd pro team in the city Warriors moved in 1962 and were the 2nd pro team in the city Pittsburgh struggles to support their ONE franchise when they aren't doing well. I doubt you watch the Pirates like most Pittsburghers when their team sucks but if you did, you'd see they are lucky to draw 10K a night despite having the nicest park in baseball. Once Sid retires, I'm sure that the rumors of moving to KC or Houston will fire up again unless daddy Bettman gifts the franchise another generational talent so that their 'diehard fans' don't abandon the team(again).

95F/ 73 DP for a heat index of 105F. It's a scorcher. Looks like most of the convection will be limited to NE PA maybe into parts of the LV. SE PA looks to be in the clear today. Just not enough shear to get things going despite the instability.

None of them have that complex forming over north central PA at the moment. Development looks to be further east than progged which should get the convection into N and W areas at least and not dissipate like the models had shown previously. Still iffy about SE PA/NJ though.

We'll see how things play out the next few hours but today honestly looks almost identical to yesterday. Line forming in western/central PA that will be decaying by the time it reaches SE PA in the evening due to the loss of heating. It may survive longer though as instability is higher than yesterday plus mt holly mentioned that things may take longer to cool off this evening. N and W will have the best shot at severe while 95 may get some outflow winds and a brief heavy downpour.

Line fell apart as it got to my area but still managed to pick up .2" of rain. We had the outflow boundary blow through with some sub severe gusts but not much rainfall and no lightning/thunder. Today is going to be brutal. 76F currently, dew point at 73.

Relocation threats due to low attendance: Pitt 3 - Philly 0

This thread didn't age well. Much of SE PA and NJ are 125 - 150% above normal rainfall the last 90 days. Lehigh Valley is around normal.

Even the HRRR has been useless today and it's initialized with the latest radar each hour. All the models were totally lost today with the convection.

Pretty weird how they left Burlington county out of the watch. Like north and south of them in NJ both have a watch but they don't. Timing wise, areas to the N and W have a better shot of seeing severe than 95 area imo. Doesn't look like the main line will get here until 7 or 8 and by then instability will begin to wane. I'll be pretty surprised if it holds together for most of the area in 95. Chester/Berks/Lehigh looks to have the best shot.

Mesoscale Discussion 1481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Areas affected...Portions of Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111803Z - 111930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat is increasing across portions of southern Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has had intermittently stronger intensity at times as it has moved from northern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. However, over the past 30 minutes, it appears storm activity on the leading edge has started to realize the increasing surface based instability ahead of this line of storms as the line has filled in and reflectivity has become more intense. There is a well established cold pool associated with this activity with temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 in its wake. Given this well-established cold pool, combined with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg, DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, and effective shear around 25 knots per SPC mesoanalysis, downstream persistence/potential strengthening is expected. In addition, thunderstorm activity is anticipated ahead of this line. While this activity is not expected to be overly organized, a favorable thermodynamic environment will support strong updraft/downdraft pairs and the potential for waterloaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. Therefore, given these factors, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed across this region.

None of the models had that storm complex developing/strengthening entering western PA. Will be interesting to watch this afternoon if it holds together. It's moving at a pretty good pace, if it holds together maybe entering the region around 5-7 pm this evening. Decent instability across the state too although shear is pretty much non existent. Something to watch.

Will anyone hit 100F tomorrow or Friday? NWS forecasting highs of 97-98F for most of the area. GFS and RGEM has PHL hitting 100F on Friday. Today and Thursday are going to feel the hottest though with dew points in the low 70's. The dews actually drop a bit on Friday though only to the mid-upper 60's despite temps remaining in the upper 90's. In fact, the dews dropping on Friday makes me think that Fri may be our best shot at 100F. Heat Index is going to be in the 105F-110F range today and tomorrow at least. Time to hibernate into the AC.

Eagles fans > Steelers fans though and it's not even close. Judging by the pirates and pens, when those teams suck, they're lucky to fill half the building. It's not really hard to support a winner. Eagles will probably suck this year but I bet they sell out every game. If the Steelers had the Eagles history, that franchise would probably be playing in another city before they won their first super bowl in 2017. Pittsburghers are bandwagon AF.

Wow another 1.25" will probably get to 1.3" by the time we taper off. 3.75" on the day including this morning. Levittown area has been a magnet today for the heavy rain. Nothing severe though we had a few decent gusts.

Got crushed by a storm this morning. Picked up 2.5" in like a hour. 3" of rain since Saturday. The summer of wet continues... Very steamy out there this morning. 79f/73 dp mostly cloudy. Going to suck if the sun pops out this afternoon.

Picked up .52" of rain overnight.

Took a hike today up at Baldpate Mountain over in Titusville/Hopewell NJ to check out the tornado damage and it didn't disappoint. It was rated EF2 and based on what I observed, looked like the right call. Hundreds of trees down or buzzsawed in half. The path was treacherous in spots with groups of tres blocking it. It was only like a quarter mile wide but there was debris easily a half mile away from the tornado. Impressive stuff, I'll try and post some pictures later on. Very fortunate this didn't hit a more populated area.

? GFS isn't fire hose wet like the past few weeks but still some chances for qpf over the next 10 days, much of that is likely convective like normal this time of the year so some places will definitely see some rain. CMC has several chances too: So does the ICON: Ensembles are even wetter: Don't think the next 10 days will be bone dry. I think normal is more like it which will seem like a dry spell with how wet summer has been.

I planted a "mosquito control" herb garden with some Citronella, Lemongrass, Clove, Peppermint, Eucalyptus, and Lavender around my patio and it does a pretty good job of keeping them away. I also have a big oscillating fan that I use if I'm hanging outside in the evening. Between those 2 things, I rarely need to put on bug spray unless I venture off into the yard.

Bensalem tor looked brief. But still unbelievable to see 2 tors in one day. We had a couple gusts to 30-40 mph but nothing severe. Over 1.5" of rain though and still falling heavy.

Watch the cell near warminster now. Starting to show signs of rotation.

Beautiful town, hope everyone is ok

Ten miles north. Giving off constant thunder but I'm a safe distance away thankfully. Got lots of friends in that area though I'm checking in on especially as it heads into Ewing/Lawrence. That was one of my old stomping grounds.