The Iceman

None of the models had that storm complex developing/strengthening entering western PA. Will be interesting to watch this afternoon if it holds together. It's moving at a pretty good pace, if it holds together maybe entering the region around 5-7 pm this evening. Decent instability across the state too although shear is pretty much non existent. Something to watch.

Will anyone hit 100F tomorrow or Friday? NWS forecasting highs of 97-98F for most of the area. GFS and RGEM has PHL hitting 100F on Friday. Today and Thursday are going to feel the hottest though with dew points in the low 70's. The dews actually drop a bit on Friday though only to the mid-upper 60's despite temps remaining in the upper 90's. In fact, the dews dropping on Friday makes me think that Fri may be our best shot at 100F. Heat Index is going to be in the 105F-110F range today and tomorrow at least. Time to hibernate into the AC.

Eagles fans > Steelers fans though and it's not even close. Judging by the pirates and pens, when those teams suck, they're lucky to fill half the building. It's not really hard to support a winner. Eagles will probably suck this year but I bet they sell out every game. If the Steelers had the Eagles history, that franchise would probably be playing in another city before they won their first super bowl in 2017. Pittsburghers are bandwagon AF.

Wow another 1.25" will probably get to 1.3" by the time we taper off. 3.75" on the day including this morning. Levittown area has been a magnet today for the heavy rain. Nothing severe though we had a few decent gusts.

Got crushed by a storm this morning. Picked up 2.5" in like a hour. 3" of rain since Saturday. The summer of wet continues... Very steamy out there this morning. 79f/73 dp mostly cloudy. Going to suck if the sun pops out this afternoon.

Picked up .52" of rain overnight.

Took a hike today up at Baldpate Mountain over in Titusville/Hopewell NJ to check out the tornado damage and it didn't disappoint. It was rated EF2 and based on what I observed, looked like the right call. Hundreds of trees down or buzzsawed in half. The path was treacherous in spots with groups of tres blocking it. It was only like a quarter mile wide but there was debris easily a half mile away from the tornado. Impressive stuff, I'll try and post some pictures later on. Very fortunate this didn't hit a more populated area.

? GFS isn't fire hose wet like the past few weeks but still some chances for qpf over the next 10 days, much of that is likely convective like normal this time of the year so some places will definitely see some rain. CMC has several chances too: So does the ICON: Ensembles are even wetter: Don't think the next 10 days will be bone dry. I think normal is more like it which will seem like a dry spell with how wet summer has been.

I planted a "mosquito control" herb garden with some Citronella, Lemongrass, Clove, Peppermint, Eucalyptus, and Lavender around my patio and it does a pretty good job of keeping them away. I also have a big oscillating fan that I use if I'm hanging outside in the evening. Between those 2 things, I rarely need to put on bug spray unless I venture off into the yard.

Bensalem tor looked brief. But still unbelievable to see 2 tors in one day. We had a couple gusts to 30-40 mph but nothing severe. Over 1.5" of rain though and still falling heavy.

Watch the cell near warminster now. Starting to show signs of rotation.

Beautiful town, hope everyone is ok

Ten miles north. Giving off constant thunder but I'm a safe distance away thankfully. Got lots of friends in that area though I'm checking in on especially as it heads into Ewing/Lawrence. That was one of my old stomping grounds.

Pretty impressive for these parts, wow!

Confirmed tornado now with that storm near Lumberton. Moving south east, going to be a close call for areas like Washington crossing and Ewing. Debated taking a short drive but that area is covered with trees doubt I'd get a good look at anything.

Light rain shower just about done in Levittown. Maybe we get clipped by the stuff to our west out in Lancaster and reading? Doesnt look severe. Cell up by Allentown is pretty impressive, any reports of tornados?

Looks to be a disappointment up in se pa unless we see some major intensification soon. Clouds were just too much to overcome. Pretty baffled by the tornado watch above the mason Dixon line. Convection there looks extremely bland.

I take this back re: clouds. Looks like maybe a break in them coming in SE PA? Anyone in Western Bucks/Montco seeing the sun?

check out the LI across SE PA. Already up to -7 in Bucks down through Philly somehow. Also I have no idea what the violent tornado parameter entails but it's above 1 now across SE PA. Agree that we probably won't see an outbreak but I think Iso tornado or 2 is definitely possible if we see a line develop. Things look pretty decent instability wise despite the cloud cover. I also agree wind will be the main threat. I bet SPC issues a meso in the next hour or so. My guess is we see a severe thunderstorm watch issued, would be pretty surprised with a TOR watch.

Satellite still looks disheartening with SE PA on East is socked in the clouds with no end in sight. Still ML CAPE is continuing to build, up to 1000 j/kg through all of SE PA into the Lehigh Valley. 1500 j/kg poking up through Chester county. More expansive with the 1500 k/kg than the RAP has at this point. Will be interesting if we see some initiation soon in central PA.

Definitely a very tricky forecast today. Satellite imagery doesn't look promising with the cloud deck hanging overhead right now at almost 11 am. Beginning to clear in SC PA but I'm guessing SE PA has at least another 2 hours in the clouds. ML CAPE already at 500 though N and W of 95 so already some instability out there. That really needs to be in the 1000-1500 range though if we are going to see significant severe. I think things will hinge on how much clearing we see this afternoon. Pretty insane shear numbers for late july though so this may still perform in spite of the lack of instability. 12z Mesos are honking though for a pretty intense complex to move through in the 4-7 pm time frame.

Storm slid just to the south of me here in Levittown with just some distant rumbles and moderate rain. My best friend called me from his office in the Ambler/Blue Bell area though and said there was a ton of wind damage. Multiple trees down blocking roadways. He showed me a pic that looked to be ping pong sized hail with some larger stones thrown in. The video he sent me showed at least 70 mph winds imo. Looked like a hurricane.

After the storms last night, finished with 5.1" of rain for the event.

Some really good pictures and videos of the flooding here: http://levittownnow.com/2021/07/12/100-year-flood-wreaks-havoc/

Looks like lower bucks is about to get hit again. Cell thankfully looks to be moving. Still looking at possibly hitting 5" on the day, I'll have to go through my records in the morning but I think I've only hit 5" in a 24 hour period only twice in my roughly 25 years living in Levittown. Probably the worst flash flooding though I've ever seen in these parts.