The Iceman

Based on the ensembles, looks cold and dry next week after the front comes through with snow threats on the 15th/16th, 18th/19th, and possibly a big daddy come the 21st. Buckle in!

The calling out of long term members snow reports are childish and unnecessary. SP has been a member here for like 10+ years and has never been one to exaggerate totals.

If you didn’t measure right when the snow ended, you likely already lost an inch or so due to compaction. Very light and fluffy snow, I’m already down to 4” after it settled and the wind picked up.

What do you mean nws strikes out? Their final prediction map was pretty much spot on.

Wow 5 inches officially out there here in Levittown. Well actually more like 4.9 since It was just under the 5” line but we round up in these parts great event to get on the board! Snow beginning to taper off but looks like it should be light snow/flurries for a little bit longer.

Set multiple alarms and slept through them all woke up at like 230 and there was barely anything, I think only like a coating so it much of came fast and furious the last couple hours. looks to be 4-5” out there based on what’s on the railings but will check officially soon. Looks to be winding down as the back edge is coming through and we are down to light snow. Really nice little event.

Will be interesting to see what Mt Holly does this evening wrt totals. I'm thinking they shift the 4-6" zone E of 95 and 95 N and W shift to the 3-4" zone. It's really hard for guidance to nail down exact areas where the banding will set up though and in my experience it usually is further N and W than guidance indicates. Different system completely but remember last feb when the deform band looked like it would set up right on 95 from guidance even 12 hours out and it ended up in the NW burbs, something similar could end up happening here. Will be a fun one to watch unfold. I'm probably going to bed after the Flyers game and waking up at 2 am to watch it come in. Who knows, this could be the biggest event of the year

For our area, probably sometime around 2 am.

GFS, while not as robust as 6z, still honking for 3-5" for most in SE PA into NJ. I like my call from earlier still, 2-4" region wide with lolli's of 6" wherever the best banding sets up. Won't be surprised if someone gets stuck in the screw zone though between the decaying shortwave and where the coastal takes over and only gets an inch. Think that should be a fairly narrow area though(knowing my luck that will run right along the delaware river though ) Looks like it will basically be a 6 hour storm for most with a hour or two of heavy snow between 09z-12z.

Mt holly seems bullish, wonder if Philly and some areas in NJ see winter storm warnings later based on this map as I believe criteria is 4”. the 1/10 higher end forecast seems to indicate lollis up to 8”

Mt. Holly calling for 3 - 5” on my point and click.

Looking good for 2-4 “ region wide with a lolli of 6” somewhere probably between 95 and the coast. Should be ratio’s higher than 10:1 based on the couple soundings I’ve looked at. All in all should be a nice little event to get on the board for those stuck at a trace.

Such a wide range of solutions at this time frame. Could see anywhere from .5” - 4”. Hopefully things trend juicier tonight and lock most of us in for 2-4”/3-5”. I just want an inch though to remind myself that it can snow in these parts 2” would be great just so I can say we beat 2019-2020.

Good post Newman. Verbatim that’s a really solid look and should provide multiple chances at SECS events but we’ve seen a few times this winter that ridge in the west gets kicked down the lane or gets stuck in the d10-15 range. Would like to see it get into the day 7-9 range before getting hyped. We’ve seen a few head fakes so far on the pattern improving and it keeps getting pushed back. The MJO forecasts have been brutal so far this winter but if we can actually push into phase 8, that will increase the chances this comes to fruition. Right now though you really have to watch it day by day since it changes so frequently. Anyway I’m cautiously optimistic as well for mid month but definitely would like to see it keep progressing forward as we hit the day 7-10 range these next few days. Hopefully most of us at least get on the board tomorrow to kick things off.

Looking less and less potent as we get closer. I’m hoping for an inch to at least get on the board.

Looking more and more like one of those disaster winters where every storm breaks the opposite of where we want it.

I'm way more concerned about a miss east like the GFS than mixing for Friday. A decent amount of EPS members look like the GFS. It's about 50-50 split between BM track and OTS.

Cape May looks like they're getting slammed. Ralph any reports down there?

It screwed the 95 crowd too. NW never really had a good shot of even lower accumulation on this one that I saw. 95 had several models showing 1-3" with some plus that and most of us will have gotten a few flurries and that's it. Not surprised though, was never high on this event due to the sharp gradient. Had a feeling it would set up SE of the river. Oh well, onto maybe Friday? Or will we top the winter of futility(19-20)?

Yep outside of extreme s nj and Delaware, there was always a ton of uncertainty with how far N the precip shield would make it and I think mt holly did an excellent job highlighting that. It’s frustrating for sure for us snow lovers that wanted even an inch or two but I can’t say I’m surprised the storm had a tough time punching through the dry air and most outlets did a good job highlighting that. They were damned either way with such a tight gradient. Btw looking right now like the NAM clowned the gfs and euro, it had a brief NW tick last night but overall at 24 hours out, it did the best. Globals were too far nw with the extent of the precipitation.

Looks like dry air wins the day around 95. Congrats s nj, you guys deserve it.

I think east of 95 and south of 195 is going to be the dividing line between the haves and have nots. Would love to see another tick NW at 00z but thinking my area has a better shot of smoking cirrus than decent accumulation as of now. Really like mt hollys forecast, thinking they are going to nail this one. PHL is going to be a really tough forecast. Could see the airport getting 4-6” while most areas of the city only see 1-2”. Going to be a tight gradient for sure. We will know by tomorrow morning how things are going to go down lol

I've pretty much thrown in the towel for any hopes of a normal winter here. At this point, just hoping to avoid a repeat of the 2019-20 complete disaster(1.5"). I'll pretty much be happy with one 4-6" type event and maybe a few C-1" minor events. If we make it through this month with zero accumulating(> 1") events though, we might be looking at record level's of futility again. Nina Feb's are always warm here. Would be pretty ridiculous to see 2 bottom 3 winters of all time in a 3 year period. You have to go back to 1949 -1951 to get 2 winters with <5" of snow in a 3 year period(and those were back to back, 1949 -50 had 2" and 50-51 had 4.2". There's never been a period in PHL history that had 2 <1" seasons in 3 years. Still early to be thinking record futility but with no real significant snow chances in sight, it is starting to come into mind. I said in my contest post that it was first accumulating snow > Trace though it should have been > 1". I(and many others in this subforum) haven't seen that yet. I don't really count Dec. 8 or 27th as actual events as they were light snow showers with no accumulation.

Looking like all virga here. Returns getting ripped to shreds as it comes down off the plateau as predicted.