The Iceman

Maybe a slight risk of tor's in this area tomorrow too depending when the front comes through. Right now looks like timing is poor for that but something to watch with the dynamics in place

Anyone else’s township brine their roadways for tomorrows “event”? I lol’d pretty hard seeing that. Must be itching to use their winter budget or get overtime for the holidays.

Honestly I'd rather it be in the 60s/70s so I could at least continue golfing so that my game doesn't go to shit again by spring

Not Christmas, but still lol seems like the pattern change to -EPO is being pushed back which is not really that unexpected. I don't think things improve until January but we'll see. We really need a -AO to deliver cold air from the -epo and it doesn't look like modeling is quite there yet. Seems like -EPO/+AO/+NAO which would likely just be more of the same but not as torchy. Not a great pattern for snow. Sucks that we're probably going to punt the first half to 2/3rd's of the month with not even a shot of measurable snow in the LR. Hell even flurries seem like stretch tomorrow now.

Same I’ll be happy with mood flakes but I won’t be surprised if we don’t even get that. Just such a dry system, I could totally see that .05 of liquid just falling as virga. At least 2nd half of December may be salvageable if LR guidance is as on point as it was with the crap pattern we are about to enter. Looks like a 2013-14 esque -epo pattern potentially. Much better than the close the blinds look we have coming next week. I would watch the December 28-Jan 2 period as I’ll be in Florida

Here’s the 3k

Euro/UKMET largely nothing for all other than a few mood flakes. That's the direction I'm leaning as well. I'll be surprised if the 1-2" shown on the GFS/12kNAM come to fruition. Just moving too fast and precip doesn't seem robust at all not to mention all the dry air.

Meso's are at range but they seem pretty unenthused by this event. Thinking it will be mostly snow TV for most with maybe some areas seeing a C-1".

GFS looks pretty mild overall. at least 3 days in the upper 50's low 60's from the 06th - 12th. Lots of rain.

Well with Met winter set to begin tomorrow I'm guessing 50-75% of normal snowfall for 95 and 75%-100% of normal snowfall for the NW burbs. I just don't like the way things look heading into december. Looks like a typical nina with a screaming PJ and +NAO/AO. I think most events will be nickel and dime or front end 1-3" over to rain. March is such a crap shoot though so who knows maybe we go gangbusters again like 2018. But DJF is looking rough right now imo

Maybe some flurries tomorrow but not expecting anything that coats the ground. Wish it could look like penn state - Michigan state game tonight. Could be the last snow for a long time though so savor it no matter how small.

Looks like Sunday is off the table now. All guidance has the clipper fizzling out before it reaches us now and the coastal is too far off the coast to have any effect. Oh well.

Sunday continue to trend well, a little worried about it being too warm at the coastal plain though. Still if we even just see flakes I'll be content. Still a lot of time on this one for things to change negatively or positively. I'll invest more if it's still there come Friday.

12z euro for sunday, first clown maps of the season, gotta love it!

I don't know, that pattern looks like it could very easily flip into a +NAO/-EPO regime by mid month which wouldn't be as bad. No use extrapolating that far out when we're seeing such big changes every 24 hours though in the long range. If we do get skunked in Dec though, historically speaking, that's usually a death knell for winter around here in a nina. Almost every single nina that featured a skunked december is a ratter.

Looks like a clipper redevelopment deal, those are notoriously hard to nail down this far out. CMC has something similar just further north as the clipper doesn't dig as far south as the Euro. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Even if we can score a 1-3" type deal with just the clipper, that'd be a nice score before December.

Since I know this area can have quite a range of first accumulating snowfalls with the NW burbs having a better shot than 95 early on, guess the date for your backyard. Levittown, PA - I'm going to guess Dec. 17th. I think it's very unlikely we strike out completely in December.

beautiful day here, currently 72F.

NAO/AO/PNA all trending where we want them to be late month Still early enough in the season though where cold air is likely to be an issue in any event especially in the coastal plain. Regardless, should begin to see some threats appear late month into early December. Can't ask for much more heading into met winter.

4.5"- 6" of snow in my area and it arrived during the afternoon rush hour. My boss at the time was an older gentleman whose wife didn't want him driving in the storm so he hitched a ride with me home since I have a jeep and we only live like 5 mins from each other. Our normal 15 minute commute ended up taking like 2.5 hours. Just absolutely insane traffic due to all of the accidents. Nobody was expecting the intensity of that one.

NAO and AO both look to be trending negative as we head towards the later part of the month. May see some threats begin to materialize then. I think it was @Wentzadelphia who said Dec.5 as the first real threat in these parts and if things keep trending the way they have, that may not be a bad idea. GFS is already throwing out some fantasy material in the day 8/9 time frame even though the CMC and Euro want nothing to do with it. Things are looking pretty good though to begin Met winter though. Definitely could be a lot worse to begin the season. Cold air doesn't seem to be a problem like the beginning of last year though. Seems to be a ton around and lurking nearby towards the end of the month into Dec.

Agree with the quick start, unfortunately December events are typically borderline in these parts so relying on them is a tricky affair. I think a best case scenario for this winter is a 2010-2011 redux. Hot and heavy early on followed by blowtorch city with a possible shot or 2 at the end.

If it means we finally get moderators to kick trolls like Phil Connors out of the sub, then I say merge.

Let's do a little game, choose over/under normal snowfall this winter at your location. Post your normal snowfall then choose if you think you'll be over or under. I average around 23" in a normal winter and I'm taking the under this year. Don't think we'll get a total shutout like 2 years ago but I think we see lots of nickle and dime events and snow to rain. I'm guessing 10-15" with maybe one SECS(4-8" all snow).