PhiEaglesfan712

Devils fan here. Don't be too confident about the Flyers making the playoffs next year. I learned this the hard way. After last season, I assumed we were going to take the next step and contend for the Stanley Cup this year. Instead, we got a regression this year. I'm not saying this will happen to the Flyers next year, but they've overachieved this year (like the Devils did last year), so it's possible they could step back next year instead of taking the leap forward to the playoffs.

Here is the analysis for PHL during the same period. The 2010s, on the strength of the first 3 years (2010-2012) broke the record by over one degree from the previous decade. The 2020s are on pace to break that record. 1890s - 51.84 1900s - 52.51 1910s - 52.98 1920s - 53.23 1930s - 53.18 1940s - 52.81 1950s - 52.83 1960s - 51.31 1970s - 53.16 1980s - 52.89 1990s - 53.85 2000s - 54.17 2010s - 55.38 2020s - 55.34 (this will likely increase after 2024) Long term average: 53.16

lol, I don't know what cold spring you're talking about because this one has been several degrees above average. 1996 and 1997 were actual cold springs, not this one. Besides, we're going to get another 80+ degree day on Monday.

If we're using the RONI, then 2010 is the best fit year. Both el nino peaks were about the same, and at the same time. It looks like this year is falling at a faster rate. (Next best fit year would be 1988, but that el nino peaked earlier in the season.) NDJ 2009 1.57 DJF 2010 1.45 JFM 2010 1.09 OND 2023 1.49 NDJ 2023 1.47 DJF 2024 1.21 JFM 2024 0.86 JAS 1987 1.47 ASO 1987 1.43 SON 1987 1.24 OND 1987 1.02 NDJ 1987 0.93 DJF 1988 0.65 JFM 1988 0.30 RONI peaks for the 1988-89 and 2010-11 La Ninas. OND 1988 -1.92 NDJ 1988 -1.93 SON 2010 -1.70 OND 2010 -1.70 My guess is that the RONI peaks around -1.8 in late fall (SON/OND).

I will say this, if there was one thing unprecedented about the 2020-23 La Nina, it's the fact that it maintained the same strength for all 3 years. I can see an ENSO Neutral state lasting for several years, but maintaining a la nina event at -1 to -1.2C for 3 consecutive years should seem nearly impossible. I highly doubt something like that is going to happen again in our lifetimes.

Triple-year la ninas color coded Weak La Nina: Moderate La Nina: Strong La Nina: 1908-09, 1909-10, 1910-11 1915-16, 1916-17, 1917-18 1954-55, 1955-56, 1956-57 1973-74, 1974-75, 1975-76 1998-99, 1999-00, 2000-01 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23

I'd say the 1954-57 (end date may be late 56) la nina event would be the closest comparison to 2020-23. The mid-50's la nina event was preceded by a disjointed triple el nino, with the last 2 years (1952-53 and 1953-54) being very weak. Plus, the third year of each la nina (56-57 and 22-23) dissipated early and transitioned into strong el ninos. Although, it looks like the trend will end, as 2024-25 is likely to be a strong la nina, while 1958-59 was still a weak el nino.

1915-16 to 1917-18 and 1954-55 to 1956-57 can be considered triples as well. Both had strong 2nd year events, surrounded by weaker Year 1 and 3 events. So, 6 triple-year la ninas in over 115 years.

Updated CPC ENSO Probability: It's looking like a late fall/early winter peak.

Back home now from Buffalo. While I didn't get the full experience of the eclipse due to the clouds, I was glad to see one last gasp of snow on Friday. I got to experience the four seasons in less than a week. Friday - Winter, Saturday to Monday - Spring, Tuesday - Summer, yesterday - Autumn

Still in Buffalo, where it is 78. Hard to believe, but that's not a record. It does beat out the 72 from March 4 and 5, and is the average high for July. It never got this hot the 3 days I was here in July 2009.

May 2024 outlook:

Warmth is coming: