PhiEaglesfan712

1994-95 is a sneaky good analog. Maybe even better than 1997-98. I know 94-95 wasn't as strong of an el nino, but this is the closest match we have with the PDO (-), QBO (+), NAO, AO, and solar.

The season is done. It's almost impossible to get a named storm in November during an el nino. We couldn't even get one in November in 2023, and that season had 20 storms. 2 named storms and another hurricane is wishful thinking, especially in a season that's been very quiet. Maybe in the Pacific basin, but not in the Atlantic.

Every even year this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024) has had record warmth in the early part of November. It looks like the trend will continue this year.

Yes, 2 years ago, it didn't rain during the entire month of October.

I have a feeling that the la nina will be delayed to 28-29, like 88-89. It will still be very strong, but I think there will be a 2nd year of dissipation. 27-28 will probably be a weak to moderate el nino, which peaks early.

This was actually a very easy call. I could see it months ago that we were going to have a warm beginning of November, like 2020, 2022, and 2024.

2007 (with Dean and Felix) probably holds the record for the 2 biggest storms making up the highest percentage of a season's ACE.

000 WTPZ32 KNHC 221446 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 AM CST Thu Oct 22 2026 ...VANCE GETTING STRONGER WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 101.0W ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was re-positioned to near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 101.0 West. Vance is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a slow northwest to north-northwest motion is expected for the next few days. Satellite imagery indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Vance is forecast to become a hurricane tonight and could become a major hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Even the ending of 00-01, with the March snowstorm bust, soured that season. But after 01-02 came one of the best 3-year stretches ever... 1997-98 super el nino was followed by 1998-2000 strong la nina. The 2nd year of the strong la nina (1999-2000) had a good few week stretch in January.

It depends on the place. 2012 was the only real widespread cancellation. 2011 and 2020 some places had, but there were cancellations. Also, remember that 2011 was on a weeknight (Monday) and 2020 on a weekend (Saturday). In my place, 2011 was cancelled, but 2020 went on (albeit a much lower turnout).

Halloween getting cancelled in 2011 and 2012 was perfect timing for me, as I was in my final 2 years of college at Drexel and not a kid. I really despise when college students go all out for Halloween, but I feel bad for the kids that missed out on 2 Halloweens in a row.

What made Sandy an 'unprecedented' event was the timing of the event, not so much the storm itself. It happened in late October, which was well outside of the climatological peak for such an event. Same as why the Ash Wednesday storm (1962) and the Blizzard of 1993 are held in high regard. There are many winter storms like those, but most of them are during the Meteorologic Winter, not in March.

I think the record warmth will be in the early part of November, like the other even years this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024).

November doesn't have to be warm to have a warm December. 2021 and 2023, which were the 2nd and 3rd warmest Decembers in the East (after 2015), were near to slightly below average in November. And don't forget about 2012, which had one of the coldest Novembers in the East (after Hurricane Sandy), before turning warm in December.