PhiEaglesfan712
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About PhiEaglesfan712

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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KPHL
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Greater Philadelphia Area
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As long as it's not 50 degrees in the daytime soon thereafter, I'll be okay with this.
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
This has to be the most bipolar spring ever, in terms of temperature. I've never seen so many temperature swings in my lifetime. We've seen it go from 30s to 80s and back, 40s to 90s and back, etc. I don't mind temps in the 70s, 60s, or even 50s, as long as it's consistent. I just don't like the 40-50 degree swings we've been getting this year. -
If we get a 90-degree day in May, this spring would be the first ever to get an 80 in March, and a 90 in both April and May, correct?
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Oh what could have been if winter didn't disappear and March and April in 1977. It was already a big snow year as it was, but it could have been even bigger if March and April didn't absolutely torch. More recently, there was a snow on May 9, 2020 (as well as a freeze on May 18, 2023). Those events happened after very warm and low snow winters.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1998-99 was the first year of a double-year strong la nina. 1997-98 was the super el nino year, and yes, that one was a record low snow year. 1982-83 was a classic backloaded el nino winter, with the blizzard in February and late freeze/snow event on April 19-20. -
Yeah, barring a major volcanic event happening really soon (like Pinatubo did in mid-June just before a robust el nino), I think most of us can agree that there will be another baseline temperature jump coming.
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2009-10 is a perfect example that proves that a strong el nino winter can be cold and snowy.
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The thing is, the warmer pre-strong/super el nino summers in the Eastern US (1991 and 2015) were preceded by borderline warm neutral/weak el nino winters. We did not have that this year, like in 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023. All of those years had cooler summers.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
91-92 would have probably had a big global temperature jump if not for Pinatubo. It was the 3rd robust el nino in 10 years, and coming off the heels of a temperature jump from the 86-88 el nino. But my guess is that if Pinatubo never happens, 97-98 still has a temperature jump, but not as drastic. 97-98 not only had the super el nino, but the exiting of a cooling period from a major volcano to enhance its temperature jump. -
Forget the 1-8 formatting, we have a better chance if the NHL expands the playoffs, preferably to 24 teams (like in 2020), and seed 1-12.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
If that's the case, then I guess you're pretty much certain on a flip to +PDO. Probably going to mean an AN temperature winter, but I'd take my chances of this (both 1982 and 2015 had a major snowstorm), rather than a deep -PDO robust el nino like 1972 or 2023. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The PDO being in the slightly negative/neutral range gives me hope. The PDO was like that in 2009-10. It just comes down to blocking pattern. If we can get a blocking pattern like 09-10, then maybe, just maybe, we could get a great winter out of this. 09-10 I believe was also a strong +PMM winter, too: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/data/pmm.data -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
April PDO -1.48 (actually lower than March's -1.43 PDO). This is a huge surprise, especially if we're heading towards a super el nino. 1972 (-1.70), 2009 (-2.23), and 2023 (-3.08) are the only strong/super el ninos that had a lower PDO in April. 1972 and 2023, of course, stayed negative, while 2009 went towards a neutral PDO. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Also, a late widespread freeze/snow event in the Eastern US, as far south as North Carolina on April 19-22: -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Stop exaggerating. This is nowhere near the coldest spring in 40+ years. March and April were well above average. Top 10 warmest, in fact. Almost half of the springs since 1980 were colder than this year's March and April. And you're lying if you say you've never run the heater in May before. (Does May 9, 2020 ring a bell?) Also, we're not getting a year with "no summer". Keep in mind, the last significantly cold summer in this area was 2009. The most recent cool summers, like 2014 and 2023, are very near the 1981-2010 averages.
