PhiEaglesfan712

000 WTPZ32 KNHC 221446 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 AM CST Thu Oct 22 2026 ...VANCE GETTING STRONGER WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 101.0W ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was re-positioned to near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 101.0 West. Vance is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a slow northwest to north-northwest motion is expected for the next few days. Satellite imagery indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Vance is forecast to become a hurricane tonight and could become a major hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Even the ending of 00-01, with the March snowstorm bust, soured that season. But after 01-02 came one of the best 3-year stretches ever... 1997-98 super el nino was followed by 1998-2000 strong la nina. The 2nd year of the strong la nina (1999-2000) had a good few week stretch in January.

It depends on the place. 2012 was the only real widespread cancellation. 2011 and 2020 some places had, but there were cancellations. Also, remember that 2011 was on a weeknight (Monday) and 2020 on a weekend (Saturday). In my place, 2011 was cancelled, but 2020 went on (albeit a much lower turnout).

Halloween getting cancelled in 2011 and 2012 was perfect timing for me, as I was in my final 2 years of college at Drexel and not a kid. I really despise when college students go all out for Halloween, but I feel bad for the kids that missed out on 2 Halloweens in a row.

What made Sandy an 'unprecedented' event was the timing of the event, not so much the storm itself. It happened in late October, which was well outside of the climatological peak for such an event. Same as why the Ash Wednesday storm (1962) and the Blizzard of 1993 are held in high regard. There are many winter storms like those, but most of them are during the Meteorologic Winter, not in March.

I think the record warmth will be in the early part of November, like the other even years this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024).

November doesn't have to be warm to have a warm December. 2021 and 2023, which were the 2nd and 3rd warmest Decembers in the East (after 2015), were near to slightly below average in November. And don't forget about 2012, which had one of the coldest Novembers in the East (after Hurricane Sandy), before turning warm in December.

We had 3 great [post-volcanic] seasons (1992-93, 1993-94, and 1995-96). Imagine how much worse it would have been without Pinatubo.

Quite frankly, those things should have been thrown by the wayside after 2005. That decade from 1995-2005, especially the last 3 years (03-05), is a hyperactive stretch that we are unlikely to see again.

2021 and 2023 were warm in October and cool in November before torching in December. Then again, those were -QBO years, with 2021 being a la nina. 2023 was a strong nino. If I remember correctly, 2015 had a very warm late August and September. October was the odd cool month in the bunch.

Yeah, there are years when you just sniff out a warm December. 2015, 2021, and 2023 were pretty obvious. The Weather Channel had these predicted months in advance. This year looks like that way as well. 2026 would make it the 4 warmest Decembers ever in 12 years.

Chalk it up to the law of averages. The previous decade (2006-2015) had none in that area.

If we have a +QBO, then November (at least the beginning of the month) is going to be very warm in the Eastern US. The last 3 +QBO years (2020, 2022, and 2024) all featured record warmth in the early part of November.

Man, that was rough. To add salt to the wound, the following offseason, the Dolphins passed up on Drew Brees and signed a washed Daunte Culpepper. The butterfly effect of this is that Saban left the Dolphins to join the Alabama Crimson Tide, where he created a dynasty.

If this happens, then I like 1983 as an analog for next spring summer (as Nino 1+2 really warmed in the spring of 1983), and 1987-88 as an analog for next fall and winter (robust 2nd year el nino that peaked early in the season).

Why is there even a flight from Atlanta to Tallahassee? That's within drivable distance.

Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion Advisory Number: 10 300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 092046 TCDEP5 Hurricane Simon Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026 An intermittent warm spot in the CDO of Simon has been present since this morning, co-located with a small pinhole-like eye noted in visible imagery. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based primarily on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix, though this is very uncertain due to the very small size of Simon and intensity estimates range from around 65 kt (DMINT) to 97 KT (RCM-1 SAR). The SAR data this morning indicated the system has an RMW near 5 n mi, highlighting how small it is. Simon has continued to strengthen today, although at a slightly slower rate since this morning. Further rapid intensification is still anticipated but the exact timing of when the rate might pick up again is highly uncertain. Small hurricanes like Simon are particularly susceptible to large and rapid fluctuations in intensity. In the short term, no changes of note were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which remains at the high end of the guidance envelope. The main challenge with this forecast is how sensitive it is to the exact track Simon takes over the next 2 days and whether or not it moves inland over the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco. A track slightly east of the NHC official forecast track will cause Simon to quickly dissipate and minimize the threat of wind impacts farther north in Mexico. However, a track just to the west would likely allow Simon to move much farther north as a hurricane. At this time, the difference between these track scenarios is less than the average error of NHC forecasts. Most of the deterministic global models shifted slightly east this cycle, but ensemble guidance indicates both scenarios are still plausible. The NHC track and intensity forecast therefore is largely unchanged and continues to show Simon tracking farther north than it might realistically make it to emphasize that risk. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a Hurricane warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by late today. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 16.2N 104.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 16.6N 104.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 17.5N 105.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 18.6N 105.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.0N 105.3W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 21.4N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 12/1800Z 22.8N 105.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/1800Z 24.6N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Imelda getting retired, but not Idalia, doesn't make sense though: Imelda: Cat 1 (90 mph), 3 fatalities, 2 injuries, $10 million damage Idalia: Cat 4 (145 mph), 12 fatalites (8 direct/4 indirect), $3.5 billion damage Idalia was the stronger hurricane, caused more damage, and had more casulties. If Imelda was retired, Idalia should have been as well.

Of those storms, Lili is probably the best match/analog, as that happened during a high shear/low activity/el nino year. Opal and Dennis happened in low shear/hyperactive years, so they aren't really good matches.

If we care about safety, there should be no games in this area on Saturday. Forget the $$$, common sense and safety should come first. These games can be played on Sunday or even Monday. Sandy made landfall on Monday (10/29/2012), and I didn't leave to go anywhere until Wednesday (10/31).

I'd argue that the 80s slight warming resulted more following the 1986-88 double el nino, rather than the 1982-83 el nino. We still got cold, below zero temps here in PHL in January 1984 and January 1985. Besides, global temperatures didn't really reach new records until 1987/88 (following the latter el nino). After 1988, we still got some cold months (like October 1988 or December 1989), but the frequency quickly declined, and below zero temps became pretty much a thing of the past (save for January 19, 1994). So, we can probably extend the similar climate to about 1985 or 1986.

Idalia should have still been retired. Lesser storms have been retired. Not having a retired storm for 2023 feels wrong. That was probably the most active strong el nino season ever. My guess is that they are probably running out of I names, and they probably won't retire one unless they absolutely have to. Then again, Emily not getting retired after 2005 shows how inconsistent name retirement is.

If Idalia didn't get retired, this one probably won't be either. Idalia got up to high end C4 speed, and this one is barely going to be a C3.

I was originally going to Vermont in late January, but the first Nor'easter happened. I ended up going the weekend of March 7-9, and that point, the winter was just about over. I got temps in the mid-50s/lower 60s each day. I stayed in Manchester, and had to drive up to Weston on the last morning to see some frozen weather.

Duke-GT (and any game in the pathway of the storm) shouldn't be played as scheduled either. Human lives are more important than a football game being played at its scheduled time. You can play the game on Sunday or Monday (or even move it to later in the season, if the teams' schedule allows it). Not ideal, but if it saves lives, it's all worth it.