PhiEaglesfan712

Something weird is going on this year. I have never seen so many wild temperature swings like this. I hope this doesn't continue into the summer. I don't want it to be 100 degrees one afternoon in June or July, then be near 50 degrees at the same time the next day or a few days later.

The ground is too warm, and the sun angle is way too high, for that. Keep in mind, the latest snowstorm in Philadelphia was on April 19-20, in 1983. If there was heavy sleet right now (which there isn't), it would be historic.

I mean, snowflakes flew on May 9, 2020 and a freeze occurred on May 18, 2023 in some spots. And those were following very warm and nearly snowless winters.

We got that last week. Widespread 80s and 90s in the Northeast US.

How 2026 compares to the strong (but not super) pre-nino composite 1986 09APR1986 -0.8 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 16APR1986 -0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.4 1991 10APR1991 -0.9 -0.3 0.3 0.6 17APR1991 -0.5 0.3 0.7 0.7 2009 08APR2009 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 15APR2009 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 2023 12APR2023 2.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 19APR2023 1.9 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 Matches best with 2023 for Nino 1+2, 1986 for Nino 3, and 1991 for Nino 4.

2009-10 was a west-based el nino, correct? 2010-11 is probably an exception to the strong la nina/SE ridge correlation because we got a really good winter here as well. Was there any ridge that winter?

lol, those were the temps I had when I went to Vermont in early March.

Or could an 86-89 scenario be in the cards? Like a double-year strong el nino in 26-28, possibly peaking off-season (summer of 27), then a flip to a strong la nina in 28-29.

Actually, the earliest last freezes at PHL were recorded this decade, in 2020 and 2025: 2020 Mar-08 (2020) Nov-18 (2020) 2021 Apr-03 (2021) Nov-17 (2021) 2022 Apr-18 (2022) Nov-18 (2022) 2023 Mar-21 (2023) Nov-13 (2023) 2024 Mar-24 (2024) Nov-30 (2024) 2025 Mar-09 (2025) Nov-11 (2025)

50 years ago was the Easter/Patriot weekend heatwave. Widespread 90s from DC to Boston. In Providence, the temperature reached 98, which is higher than any temperature recorded in May (and until last year, when it reached 100 on 6/24, any temperature recorded in June). Many places never got that hot again during the remainder of the spring and summer 1976. In fact, things turned cold early, with a record cool fall and record cold winter in many of these places.

Meh, the blocking patterns weren't great in either 2015-16 or 2023-24. That's why temperatures, outside for maybe a few week window, torched during those winters. 2009-10 was the strong el nino winter this century with the great blocking pattern (of course, until late February).

The only strong el ninos that didn't tip their hand early were 1986 and 2009. Super El Ninos (when they reached el nino threshold for good) 1972 - RONI MAM (0.8); ONI AMJ (0.7) 1982 - RONI MAM (0.6); ONI MAM (0.5) 1997 - RONI MAM (0.5); ONI AMJ (0.8) 2015 - RONI FMA (0.5); ONI SON 2014 (0.5) Strong El Ninos (when they reached el nino threshold for good) 1957 - RONI FMA (0.7); ONI MAM (0.7) 1965 - RONI AMJ (0.6); ONI AMJ (0.5) 1986 - RONI JAS (0.6); ONI ASO (0.7) 1991 - RONI AMJ (0.5); ONI AMJ (0.5) 2009 - RONI ASO (0.6); ONI JJA (0.5) 2023 - RONI JJA (0.6); ONI AMJ (0.6)

If this is true, then the last part of April is going to feature Top 5 record cold. I don't see it happening. April is going to finish with at least a mean temperature of 57. I mean, 2023 ended at 57.6, and that last part of April was really cold. Warmer than normal April should be locked at 100% at this point.

Or in October, when the high school football season is in full swing. Get ready for a lot of mud games

1976 also had the April heat wave. Unlike 2002, it never got that hot again in many places, especially in New England. That year turned cold early, as October 1976-January 1977 was record cold. This year is the 50th anniversary of that Easter/Patriot Weekend heat wave.

Sorry MJO812, but it looks like the cold is short lived:

2015 and 2023 didn't really have that swing. We got borderline cold neutrals/weak la ninas out of those. The 1972-73, 1986-88, 1997-98, and 2009-10 events had the big swing going immediately from strong el nino -> strong la nina. The other way, it doesn't go strong la nina -> strong el nino right away. It seems at least one year is needed in between to make the transition. The closest is 1955-56 strong la nina -> 1957-58 strong el nino and 2007-08 strong la nina -> 2009-10 strong el nino (and that one of course was a quick transition back to strong la nina in 2010-11).

Definitely agree with this. I liked the 2020 format. ~70 regular season games and a 24-team playoff (seed 1-12, Top 4 seeds get a bye in the qualifying round, which seeds 5-12 play, with re-seeding every round). Of course, the NHL is all about profit, so they'll probably not eliminate games. We just have to hope for the next best thing, which is to expand the playoffs.

At least we won't have to wait as long for the next NHL season to start. With the season expanding from 82 to 84 games, the 2026-27 NHL season will start on September 29 and end on April 10: https://x.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/2037514216995787011

With how warm it has been since early March, I'm surprised there were still spots that hadn't reached 80 yet this year. My first 80 was March 10. While a Greenland block means cold May, I highly doubt a -2 to -4 monthly temperature is going to verify. Keep in mind, May 2023 came in at -1.5 and June 2023 at -2.6 at PHL, compared to 1981-2020 normals. We haven't seen that cold at that time of the season since 1985. If this verifies, it would be the coldest at this time of the season in over 4 decades. Probably not going to happen.

I'm not so sure about that. 2015 was a warm summer and especially fall, and there was no nina or -PDO influence. If anything, that was a solid +PDO year.

In strong el ninos, the summer before it is usually cooler, and the summer after it is usually warmer, in the East. The only time that didn't happen was 91-92, which was affected by a major volcano (Pinatubo). [Interesting to note that besides 1991, the only other pre-nino summer that was warmer than average was 2015. Both 1991 and 2015 were borderline warm neutral/weak el nino events. The summers of 1990 and 2014 were considerably colder than the summers of 1991 and 2015.] Pre-strong nino/post-strong nino summer average temps (PHL) since 1970 72-73: pre-nino summer 72 (73.9); post-nino summer 73 (77.1) 82-83: pre-nino summer 82 (73.0); post-nino summer 83 (75.7) 86-88: pre-nino summer 86 (75.3); post-nino summer 88 (77.1) [summer 87 during the el nino was 76.5] 91-92: pre-nino summer 91 (77.9); post-nino summer 92 (74.0) 97-98: pre-nino summer 97 (74.2); post-nino summer 98 (75.7) 09-10: pre-nino summer 09 (75.1); post-nino summer 10 (79.6) 15-16: pre-nino summer 15 (77.7); post-nino summer 16 (78.8) 23-24: pre-nino summer 23 (75.8; although JAS was 76.1); post-nino summer 24 (78.5)

Funny how my early February long-term forecast verified: People were mad about it, but I could see the cold was on borrowed time. We had 3 months of solidly below average temperatures. Were people really expecting it to last a 4th or even 5th month? I can't remember the last time a cold pattern lasted that long. The last time we even had 3 months of solidly BN temperatures was January-March 2015, and you saw what happened in April and May. This March and April are mirroring the warmth of April and May 2015, as I thought would happen.

I find it funny how those freak May snowfalls (in 2002 and 2020) happened after winters that were very warm and pretty much snowless.

93 and 95 were the worst heatwaves ever. Those summers had wall-to-wall heat, with not really much relief. 2010 and 2012 were just as bad, but improvements in the infrastructure made it easier for us to be equipped to handle the heat than it was during the mid-90s summers.