PhiEaglesfan712

The Nino 1+2 has been in an el nino for pretty much the last 2 years, ever since the 2023-24 strong el nino started in the summer of 2023. If we were to get a strong or super el nino in ENSO 3.4, the Nino 1+2 is going to really go off the chart like in 1982-83 and 1997-98.

Yeah, they need to like cut that 140 ACE in half. It's shaping up to be a low activity season, like 2013 and 2014. This was my forecast in mid-June: 11 named storms (range 8-14) 4 hurricanes (range 2-6) 1 major hurricane (range 0-2) 51.5 ACE (range 36-67)

The biggest takeaway here is that we didn't even have that record warm in west coast like we did in 2013-14 and 2014-15.

But we all know that an east-based la nina has close to zero chance of happening, with Nino 1+2 being in a solid el nino state. I feel like the next strong/super el nino is going to take 1+2 off the charts, like 1982-83 or 1997-98.

Even New England had the one snowstorm that made the season memorable, on 1/19/2002. Who could forget about the Tuck Rule game? I mean, Raiders fans won't care that the winter of 2001-02 was one of the warmest and least snowy winters in New England, all they'll remember is the one night it snowed that winter and their team getting screwed by that call. Even this year in Philly, we didn't get a snow season. But we did get that memorable snowstorm on that Sunday we played the Rams in the playoffs.

I mean, it was only fitting that the torch winter of 2001-02 ended with an early season heatwave in mid-April, as a cherry on top.

I'd argue the extreme winter warmth started in 2011-12. That's around the time the frequency of record low seasons picked up in Baltimore and DC. Baltimore 2011-2012 0.0 T T T 0.0 T 1.3 0.5 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 2012-2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.4 2.9 0.5 3.2 T 0.0 0.0 8.0 2013-2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 2.9 9.8 14.2 12.1 T 0.0 T 39.0 2014-2015 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.3 0.2 5.9 14.6 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.7 2015-2016 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 30.0 2.6 2.5 T 0.0 T 35.1 2016-2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.7 T 2.3 0.0 T 0.0 3.0 2017-2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 2.2 2.2 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4 2018-2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 7.8 6.1 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.3 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 4.3 5.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 10.9 2021-2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 13.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.4 2022-2023 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.2 T T 0.0 0.0 0.2 2023-2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 9.1 2.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 8.9 3.8 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.7 DC 2011-2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 T 1.7 0.3 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2012-2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.0 0.0 T 3.1 2013-2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.5 6.6 11.2 12.7 T 0.0 0.0 32.0 2014-2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 3.6 9.8 4.9 T 0.0 T 18.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.8 3.1 0.3 T T 0.0 22.2 2016-2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.4 T 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 2017-2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.2 0.2 4.5 T 0.0 0.0 7.8 2018-2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 11.5 3.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.9 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 2.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 2021-2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 T 0.9 0.0 T 0.0 13.2 2022-2023 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.4 T T 0.0 0.0 0.4 2023-2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.8 0.1 T T 0.0 0.0 8.0 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.1 8.3 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.9 However, if you take a closer look at the last 2 years, you'll see an increase in snow. I wonder if this is the start of the tide turning, or if it's just a tease. But it's important to note that Baltimore and DC have seen snow the last 2 years, especially in 2024-25. That didn't really happen much from about 2016-17 to 2022-23.

Maybe in your place it was about normal snowfall, but in most places, especially Philly on southward, it was a well below normal snowfall winter. For Baltimore and DC, it was a Top 10 least snowy winter. Plus, it torched from November-February, with very little snowfall during those months. Only March was colder than average and had above average snowfall. Easily one of the most depressing winters ever. Besides, I'm pretty sure either 2020-21 or 2021-22, depending whether you're inland or on a coast, was better than 2016-17.

16-17 had a very sharp cutoff right around PHL, which had 15 inches of snow that year (which was even below the 18-19 total). DC and Baltimore had about 3 inches of snow the entire winter, which puts it as one of the Top 10 least snowiest winters for those cities. I personally don't want that type of season again. The next time, the cutoff may be further north, and it may make 01-02/11-12 look like child's play.

AMJ ENSO (ONI): -0.1C AMJ RONI: -0.49C June PDO: -2.51

Oh gosh, I hope not. There is nothing more depressing than that combination. I'll take a colder than average January, December, heck even November or October. Even a 2011-12 type winter would be better than this. A colder than average March after an above average Dec-Feb would be a complete waste.

Since 2010, the only summers that were below the 1981-2010 average here at PHL were 2014 and 2023. However, June 2023 was significantly cooler than September 2023, and if you used JAS 2023 instead of JJA, it would have been above the 1981-2010 summer (JJA) average. JJA 2014 (75.7) finished .2F below the 1981-2010 average, and JJA 2023 (75.8) finished .1F below the average. JAS 2023 was 76.1F, which would have been above the 1981-2010 JJA average.

And it was only for a month. It needs to sustain +2.0 for multiple months to be considered a super el nino. That was only done in 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. Plus, the RONI only reached +1.5 at its peak, which is not only significantly lower than the 4 super el nino years (all of the above years reached at least +2.25), but also lower than every strong el nino year (1957-58, 1965-66, 1986-88, 1991-92, and 2009-10). Not to mention, the MEI was only a borderline weak/medium el nino. (Of the strong el nino years, only 2009-10 has a comparable MEI peak to 2023-24.) 2023-24 is a strong, but not super, el nino.

Record high temperatures expected in London, for the start of Wimbledon: https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/45595840/wimbledon-readies-scorching-start-contingencies-place "The previous record temperature for the start of the grass-court major was set in 2001 at 85 degrees. Monday's expected blast of heat could even surpass the tournament record of 96.3 degrees set in 2015." So, it's possible that we could see record highs be smashed by over 11 degrees F.

Taking shape? Haven't we've been in a -PDO for at least the last 5.5 years, since January 2020? 2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.99 2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.71 2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.24 -1.32 -2.64 -2.38 -2.29 -1.81 -2.41 -2.21 2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66 2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03 2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

July 22, 2011 is the gold standard when it comes to widespread triple digit heat. Newark reached 108, and the Lehigh Valley even got over 100 (which rarely ever happens).

The 100-degree drought at PHL is over: https://x.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/1937572239236305000

PHL temp at 10 is 93, one degree warmer than at this time yesterday.

92 at PHL at 10 am. If we go by the 10+10 rule, PHL should top out at about 102 today.

How is this even possible?

I don't think the PDO is similar to last year. We still have a -PDO, but I think we're heading towards neutral PDO as we get towards the winter. Progress isn't linear. Just look at 2013, which drifted back a bit into the negative during the summer: 2013 -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65 2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

It's officially Go Birds season when we see this in the forecast.

No, 1877-78 was the super el nino. 1881 came off a weak el nino, and began a 3-year ENSO neutral period.

Some places were very warm, but it wasn't as widespread: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/mapping/110/tavg/201007/1/rank In fact, 2011 was more widespread than 2010: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/mapping/110/tavg/201107/1/rank