PhiEaglesfan712

2015 and 2023 didn't really have that swing. We got borderline cold neutrals/weak la ninas out of those. The 1972-73, 1986-88, 1997-98, and 2009-10 events had the big swing going immediately from strong el nino -> strong la nina. The other way, it doesn't go strong la nina -> strong el nino right away. It seems at least one year is needed in between to make the transition. The closest is 1955-56 strong la nina -> 1957-58 strong el nino and 2007-08 strong la nina -> 2009-10 strong el nino (and that one of course was a quick transition back to strong la nina in 2010-11).

Definitely agree with this. I liked the 2020 format. ~70 regular season games and a 24-team playoff (seed 1-12, Top 4 seeds get a bye in the qualifying round, which seeds 5-12 play, with re-seeding every round). Of course, the NHL is all about profit, so they'll probably not eliminate games. We just have to hope for the next best thing, which is to expand the playoffs.

At least we won't have to wait as long for the next NHL season to start. With the season expanding from 82 to 84 games, the 2026-27 NHL season will start on September 29 and end on April 10: https://x.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/2037514216995787011

With how warm it has been since early March, I'm surprised there were still spots that hadn't reached 80 yet this year. My first 80 was March 10. While a Greenland block means cold May, I highly doubt a -2 to -4 monthly temperature is going to verify. Keep in mind, May 2023 came in at -1.5 and June 2023 at -2.6 at PHL, compared to 1981-2020 normals. We haven't seen that cold at that time of the season since 1985. If this verifies, it would be the coldest at this time of the season in over 4 decades. Probably not going to happen.

I'm not so sure about that. 2015 was a warm summer and especially fall, and there was no nina or -PDO influence. If anything, that was a solid +PDO year.

In strong el ninos, the summer before it is usually cooler, and the summer after it is usually warmer, in the East. The only time that didn't happen was 91-92, which was affected by a major volcano (Pinatubo). [Interesting to note that besides 1991, the only other pre-nino summer that was warmer than average was 2015. Both 1991 and 2015 were borderline warm neutral/weak el nino events. The summers of 1990 and 2014 were considerably colder than the summers of 1991 and 2015.] Pre-strong nino/post-strong nino summer average temps (PHL) since 1970 72-73: pre-nino summer 72 (73.9); post-nino summer 73 (77.1) 82-83: pre-nino summer 82 (73.0); post-nino summer 83 (75.7) 86-88: pre-nino summer 86 (75.3); post-nino summer 88 (77.1) [summer 87 during the el nino was 76.5] 91-92: pre-nino summer 91 (77.9); post-nino summer 92 (74.0) 97-98: pre-nino summer 97 (74.2); post-nino summer 98 (75.7) 09-10: pre-nino summer 09 (75.1); post-nino summer 10 (79.6) 15-16: pre-nino summer 15 (77.7); post-nino summer 16 (78.8) 23-24: pre-nino summer 23 (75.8; although JAS was 76.1); post-nino summer 24 (78.5)

Funny how my early February long-term forecast verified: People were mad about it, but I could see the cold was on borrowed time. We had 3 months of solidly below average temperatures. Were people really expecting it to last a 4th or even 5th month? I can't remember the last time a cold pattern lasted that long. The last time we even had 3 months of solidly BN temperatures was January-March 2015, and you saw what happened in April and May. This March and April are mirroring the warmth of April and May 2015, as I thought would happen.

I find it funny how those freak May snowfalls (in 2002 and 2020) happened after winters that were very warm and pretty much snowless.

93 and 95 were the worst heatwaves ever. Those summers had wall-to-wall heat, with not really much relief. 2010 and 2012 were just as bad, but improvements in the infrastructure made it easier for us to be equipped to handle the heat than it was during the mid-90s summers.

Yeah, I think we will have near normal temperatures the last week of April/early May, but I can't see a 2023-redux (which turned cold in late April and all the way through June) happening.

2002 was a very warm summer, but the 02-03 event was a moderate, as it didn't quite peak at above 1.5 on the ONI/RONI. 2009 wasn't warm, and in fact, one of the coldest June/July. 2015 was slightly warmer than normal, but 2016 was much warmer. 2014 was the cool summer, and you could technically count that as the pre-nino summer if you consider 14-15 (borderline warm neutral/weak el nino) as part of the el nino event. Almost all 1.5+ peak seasons have warmer post-nino summers than pre-nino summers, with the exception of the Pinatubo case in 91-92.

Yeah, it had to have either been 96 or 97. Both were really cool summers (followed 3 very hot summers). JJA averages (PHL) 1993: 78.2 1994: 78.4 1995: 78.6 1996: 74.0 1997: 74.2

Summer 2023 was a delayed summer. It was one of those rare ones where September was warmer than June. While JJA fell a tenth or two below the 1981-2010 average, the JAS temperature finished a tenth or two above the 1981-2010 JJA average. Plus, the early September heatwave helped drive up the 90-degree numbers for 2023. Also, I'm not sure where the narrative of record rainfall and flooding events going into the summer of 2023 came from, but aside from the April 28-30 rainstorm, that spring was pretty much dry here, with May 2023 being a record dry May. It really didn't get wet until about mid-June.

General rule is that pre-strong nino summers are colder and post-strong nino summers are warmer in the East. It wasn't 1995 (that was one of the warmest summers on record, as was 1993 and 1994). However, both 1996 and 1997 were cooler summers (1997 was a pre-nino summer). It must have been one of those years. The only time the rule didn't hold was when the pre-nino summer of 1991 was very warm, and the post-nino summer of 1992 was cool. However, we had a major volcano in 1991 (in Pinatubo), and that screwed things up. 91-92 behaved more like the reverse of the way a strong el nino would normally. Global temperatures actually cooled, as the effects of Pinatubo canceled out a robust el nino. Pre-strong nino/post-strong nino summer average temps (PHL) since 1970 72-73: pre-nino summer 72 (73.9); post-nino summer 73 (77.1) 82-83: pre-nino summer 82 (73.0); post-nino summer 83 (75.7) 86-88: pre-nino summer 86 (75.3); post-nino summer 88 (77.1) [summer 87 during the el nino was 76.5] 91-92: pre-nino summer 91 (77.9); post-nino summer 92 (74.0) 97-98: pre-nino summer 97 (74.2); post-nino summer 98 (75.7) 09-10: pre-nino summer 09 (75.1); post-nino summer 10 (79.6) 15-16: pre-nino summer 15 (77.7); post-nino summer 16 (78.8) 23-24: pre-nino summer 23 (75.8; although JAS was 76.1); post-nino summer 24 (78.5)

The difference is that we had record warmth in 2023 starting in January. I mean, we had to regress to the mean at some point. We had more blocking in late April, and that pattern lasted through May and June, and gave us our coldest May/June in many years. I don't expect that this year. It's likely May will be a lot closer to normal, but we aren't getting -2/-3 monthly temperature departures like May and June 2023.

What helped was a major volcano (Pinatubo). This caused global temperatures to drop temporarily, making it favorable for cold and snowy winters in 92-93, 93-94, and even 95-96. If not for that, then global temperatures would have broken records in 1992, following a 3rd robust el nino in a decade (after 1982-83 and 1986-88). But the cooling period was over by the 1997-98 super el nino, the fourth robust el nino in just over 15 years. Unless there is another Pinatubo this summer, I expect global temperatures to shatter another record (following a 2nd robust el nino in 4 years), making it unlikely we have another cold and snowy period like 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96.

Weeklies, by the way:

There's only been one: 1916-17 (and this was part of a triple la nina, which began in 1915-16 and ended in 1917-18). That was when global temperatures were at a minimum in the post-Industrial Revolution era. Of course, 1916-17 and 1917-18 are some of the coldest CONUS winters on record, and I believe the super la nina had a hand in it. The closest we've come since then were in 1973-74 and 1988-89, and both immediately followed robust el ninos (the super el nino of 1972-73 and double el nino of 1986-88, respectively). Classic cases of "sometimes the strongest el ninos are followed by the strongest la ninas". I feel like if we get a strong/super el nino, this time around it's going to be followed by a strong la nina, like in 1973, 1988, 1998, and 2010.

April 1976 was well above average in most of New England, and above average in New York, eastern PA, and NJ. This is still Boston's warmest April on record. Although, April 2010's warmth is much more widespread for the Eastern US.

Yeah, 50 years ago was the Easter/Patriot weekend heatwave:

May and June that year was really cold. I don't think it reached 96 in those months (I know it did in July and September). Of course, there was the freeze on May 18.

Who knows, maybe we'll get a nice rainstorm/mud season in October this time, when the high school football season is in full swing.

Same thing with the strong la ninas. 1916-17 was the only one in the first 100+ years post-1850. (Coincidentally, 1917 was the year when global average temperature hit a minimum.) Since then, we've had strong la ninas in 1955-56, 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89, 1998-2000, 2007-08, and 2010-11.

Eric Webb's list has 1877-78, 1888-89, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 listed as super el ninos. Those are the only years when both the ONI and RONI were above +2C.