PhiEaglesfan712

Man, that was rough. To add salt to the wound, the following offseason, the Dolphins passed up on Drew Brees and signed a washed Daunte Culpepper. The butterfly effect of this is that Saban left the Dolphins to join the Alabama Crimson Tide, where he created a dynasty.

If this happens, then I like 1983 as an analog for next spring summer (as Nino 1+2 really warmed in the spring of 1983), and 1987-88 as an analog for next fall and winter (robust 2nd year el nino that peaked early in the season).

Why is there even a flight from Atlanta to Tallahassee? That's within drivable distance.

Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion Advisory Number: 10 300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 092046 TCDEP5 Hurricane Simon Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026 An intermittent warm spot in the CDO of Simon has been present since this morning, co-located with a small pinhole-like eye noted in visible imagery. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based primarily on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix, though this is very uncertain due to the very small size of Simon and intensity estimates range from around 65 kt (DMINT) to 97 KT (RCM-1 SAR). The SAR data this morning indicated the system has an RMW near 5 n mi, highlighting how small it is. Simon has continued to strengthen today, although at a slightly slower rate since this morning. Further rapid intensification is still anticipated but the exact timing of when the rate might pick up again is highly uncertain. Small hurricanes like Simon are particularly susceptible to large and rapid fluctuations in intensity. In the short term, no changes of note were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which remains at the high end of the guidance envelope. The main challenge with this forecast is how sensitive it is to the exact track Simon takes over the next 2 days and whether or not it moves inland over the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco. A track slightly east of the NHC official forecast track will cause Simon to quickly dissipate and minimize the threat of wind impacts farther north in Mexico. However, a track just to the west would likely allow Simon to move much farther north as a hurricane. At this time, the difference between these track scenarios is less than the average error of NHC forecasts. Most of the deterministic global models shifted slightly east this cycle, but ensemble guidance indicates both scenarios are still plausible. The NHC track and intensity forecast therefore is largely unchanged and continues to show Simon tracking farther north than it might realistically make it to emphasize that risk. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a Hurricane warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by late today. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 16.2N 104.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 16.6N 104.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 17.5N 105.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 18.6N 105.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.0N 105.3W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 21.4N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 12/1800Z 22.8N 105.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/1800Z 24.6N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Imelda getting retired, but not Idalia, doesn't make sense though: Imelda: Cat 1 (90 mph), 3 fatalities, 2 injuries, $10 million damage Idalia: Cat 4 (145 mph), 12 fatalites (8 direct/4 indirect), $3.5 billion damage Idalia was the stronger hurricane, caused more damage, and had more casulties. If Imelda was retired, Idalia should have been as well.

Of those storms, Lili is probably the best match/analog, as that happened during a high shear/low activity/el nino year. Opal and Dennis happened in low shear/hyperactive years, so they aren't really good matches.

If we care about safety, there should be no games in this area on Saturday. Forget the $$$, common sense and safety should come first. These games can be played on Sunday or even Monday. Sandy made landfall on Monday (10/29/2012), and I didn't leave to go anywhere until Wednesday (10/31).

I'd argue that the 80s slight warming resulted more following the 1986-88 double el nino, rather than the 1982-83 el nino. We still got cold, below zero temps here in PHL in January 1984 and January 1985. Besides, global temperatures didn't really reach new records until 1987/88 (following the latter el nino). After 1988, we still got some cold months (like October 1988 or December 1989), but the frequency quickly declined, and below zero temps became pretty much a thing of the past (save for January 19, 1994). So, we can probably extend the similar climate to about 1985 or 1986.

Idalia should have still been retired. Lesser storms have been retired. Not having a retired storm for 2023 feels wrong. That was probably the most active strong el nino season ever. My guess is that they are probably running out of I names, and they probably won't retire one unless they absolutely have to. Then again, Emily not getting retired after 2005 shows how inconsistent name retirement is.

If Idalia didn't get retired, this one probably won't be either. Idalia got up to high end C4 speed, and this one is barely going to be a C3.

I was originally going to Vermont in late January, but the first Nor'easter happened. I ended up going the weekend of March 7-9, and that point, the winter was just about over. I got temps in the mid-50s/lower 60s each day. I stayed in Manchester, and had to drive up to Weston on the last morning to see some frozen weather.

Duke-GT (and any game in the pathway of the storm) shouldn't be played as scheduled either. Human lives are more important than a football game being played at its scheduled time. You can play the game on Sunday or Monday (or even move it to later in the season, if the teams' schedule allows it). Not ideal, but if it saves lives, it's all worth it.

If that's the case, then there's no way they play the Georgia-Alabama game as scheduled.

If it was September, maybe. But we're now in October, so I think at most, only one more named storm. There's no way we get 3 more named storms after this point, especially in an el nino. Recent history says this will probably be the last storm of the storm. In the last 15 years, several seasons ended with the last active storm being the biggest (Sandy in 2012, Iota in 2020, and Melissa last year come to mind).

My guess is that they might be running out of 'I' names. They didn't retire Idalia either (after 2023). I think you need a Cat 4+ to retire an 'I' name now. Then again, nothing will ever beat the f-up of not retiring Emily.

No surprise here. It's quite common for September or even early October to be the warmest time of the year on the California coast.

Don't forget about 2002-03 to 2004-05. That was an epic 3-year stretch. Also, after 2009-10 and 2010-11, you had (after 2 lean years) 2013-14 and 2014-15 to complete the Big 4.

Yeah, the right call was to go for it. What was wrong was the play call. The Eagles had total control of the game up until that point.

Yeah, 1961 was the last real hyperactive (175+ ACE season) until 1995. With very few exceptions, the 1962-1994 period was relatively quiet in the Atlantic. Of course, the Blizzard of 1993 was preceded by the devastating Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (although the rest of that season was very quiet).

And here I thought that back in 2013, when we had a season with no hurricanes greater than C1 strength, that something like that would never happen again.

Not really. You had low activity seasons in 2006 (after setting the one-year, 2-year, and 3-year ACE records in 2003-05) and 2013 (after 3 seasons of 19 storms in 2010-12). Both of the years that followed (2007 and 2014) also had low activity/ACE seasons. So, 2027 could be another low activity season, even if we get a la nina (keep in mind, 2007 was a strong la nina).

I thought the historic storm was in March 1993, not in December 1992. I always remember the winter of 1992-93 this way: (1) my youngest sister being born (December 29, 1992), then (2) her baptism (late January 1993), and finally the snowstorm (mid-March 1993). I don't remember the storm happening first (in December 1992). I found this storm (which was right before my sister was born), but it appears further south: https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=128

Delays weren't too bad. My flight from PHL took off last night about 30-45 minutes delayed, but still made the destination ahead of the scheduled time. This storm wasn't that bad, at least it won't be mentioned in the same breath as Sandy or the Blizzard of 1993 in the future.

Don't overthink this one. Just look at the Ash Wednesday storm and the Blizzard of 1993, both of which happened in March, outside of the Meteorological winter months. If it happens in January, we probably get something worse than those.

I'm surprised they haven't called a ground stop yet at PHL. I know they did so for Sandy. Does anyone remember if there was one for the Blizzard of 1993?