PhiEaglesfan712

Today is the 40th anniversary of Hurricane Gloria: This was as bad as Sandy, maybe even worse.

I won't be surprised if it verifies. Signature -ENSO/strong -IOD January has very warm anomoly. Here are my top analogs:

We're overdue for a 100-degree heat wave in late August/early September. We haven't had one since 1953.

The last wall-to-wall -EPO -WPO pattern was in 2013-14 and 2014-15, correct?

Where did Sandy develop?

I like 1949-50 as an analog better than 1950-51. (By the way, those years still hold the record for the least snowy 2-year period at PHL.) 50-51 was a very active Atlantic hurricane season. By my calculation, it is the 5th highest ACE season at 227.1413 (Wunderground has it as the 2nd highest at 243). We don't have anywhere near that this year. November 1950 was month of weird extremes. In some places in the east, you had high temperatures in the 80s (at the beginning of the month), and by the 25th, you had low temperatures near 0.

Three of those years rank among the 11 hyperactive (180+ ACE) seasons, with 2 of the Top 3 overall: 1 2005 247.65 3 1893 231.0738 11 2020 180.3725

La nina by itself isn't always bad. Just as a deep -IOD isn't always bad by itself. But those two things in combination almost certainly spells a cooked winter. If you have a la nina, you need a +IOD or near neutral IOD to have a chance. If you have a deep -IOD, you need an el nino or near ENSO neutral. La nina and deep -IOD is just not going to work. Unless you're looking for a blowtorch winter and very little snow.

I'm hoping it stays ENSO neutral. That's probably our best chance for a decent winter. A la nina and deep -IOD combination almost certainly means a blowtorch winter and very low snow totals.

07-08 is one of those rare winters that didn't follow the November/December la nina rule. We got a cold November/December, with a snowstorm on December 5. Instead of a cold and snowy winter, January-April was warm with very little snow.

Oddly enough, while that was happening, we were having the warmest September on record here. September 1881 remains the warmest September on record in some places, like PHL. But many places in the Eastern US had a snowstorm on April 19-20, 1983 (Boston May 9-10, 1977), which is a higher sun angle than September 16.

Yeah, a 1949-50 or 2022-23 snowless type season is not out of the question. Some places could even set a new record low for the least snowy 10-year period in 2025-26. For example, PHL would break the record (set from 1922-23 through 1931-32) with less than 13.4 inches of snow this upcoming winter.

We had a repeat in 2002-03 through 2004-05. 02-03 was a blockbuster winter, 03-04 was cold, and 04-05 had above average snowfall.

2020-21 is my next best analog after 1949-50. I like it because it's more recent, but I the one thing working against it is that 20-21 was near a solar min, and we're now near a solar max.

I'm hoping we stay ENSO neutral. Second-year ENSO neutrals tend to do well. A warmer version of 1993-94 and 2013-14 could be possible.

If we go la nina, I still like 1949-50 as the best analog. I'll even adjust it for climate: Sorry in advance if we get a torch January and a low snow winter.

If 2022 really finished below 100 ACE, then this season is easily a lock for below 100 ACE. 2022 was nowhere near as dead as this season. We're halfway through September, and we're still below 40 ACE. We're probably going to finish below 80 ACE, maybe even below 70 ACE.

I'm pretty sure this 2-year ACE record is going to stand for a very long time. 6 2004 226.94 1 2005 247.65 Even in this era of more storms, we've only had 2 hyperactive ACE seasons post-2005: 8 2017 224.8775 11 2020 180.3725

For PHL, last 6-inch snowstorm was Jan 28-29, 2022. Last 8-inch snowstorm was Jan 22-23, 2016. The 2016 one was probably the last real KU for our area.

I'm pretty sure 2006 had a colder than normal first half and second half of September. It also had a colder than normal first half and second half of October. Then, things really flipped and we had record warmth from November through the first of January 2007 (before the bottom fell out of the thermometer in February 2007).

What about 57-58 and 09-10 (the two very snowy el ninos)? Were the 500mb height anomalies similar when adjusted for climate?

First time since 1992 we have no tropical activity at the peak of the season. That, of course, followed Hurricane Andrew. It's looking more and more like Erin is going to be a one-off, like Andrew.

Not really. If last year was a real la nina, then the Nino 1+2 region would not have been in a moderate, borderline strong el nino state. I wouldn't consider last year a la nina. I would consider it a neutral, albeit not in a traditional sense.

17-18 or 20-21 is probably the best we can do in this new regime, and even those years had a long stretch of warmth/no snow in the middle. Plus, 20-21 didn't even do great along the coastal areas. But a ubiquitously great and long lasting winter in the east (like 13-14 or 14-15) is probably not going to happen.