PhiEaglesfan712

2014 and 2015 exist. To me, those are the gold standards for winters going forward.

So glad this morning is trash day.

DJF ONI: -0.6 DJF RONI: -1.18

February 2025 PDO is in at -1.4, which is lower than the -1.28 reading in January. I had 2013 as the analog for PDO this year. How Jan/Feb 2025 compares to Jan/Feb 2013: 2025 -1.28 -1.40 2013 -1.10 -1.42

After our first below average temperature winter in 10 years, is a warm March in the cards?

The only time we got those temperatures in March was in 2014 and 2015, and that was early in the month, following historical cold in January and February. Yep, this is not going to happen.

Can you really this year a la nina when Nino 1+2 is at +1.1C, and has been in an el nino state most of the winter?

I'd say 2024-25 is an ENSO neutral, even if it wasn't conventional (like say 2013-14). We basically had a WPAC la nina and a EPAC el nino.

I'd argue the historic benchmark snowfall pattern ended after the January 2016 snowstorm. If not for that snowstorm, then 2014-15 would have been a clear demarcation on when the snowy pattern ended. The pattern started to break down when the super el nino/cyclical +PDO pattern ended in 2016. Though we were still hitting snowfall averages in 16-17, 17-18, and even 18-19, we weren't getting the blockbuster snowstorms (like we were from 3/1/2009 to 1/2016). If not for the late Jan/early Feb 2021 snowstorm, NYC would be working on 9 straight years without a 10-inch snowstorm. PHL hasn't had an 8-inch snowstorm since the January 2016 snowstorm.

The 71/36 rule holds true for the 16th straight year. Average monthly temperature for September and February at PHL since 2009-10: Sep 2009 - 68.0 Feb 2010 - 31.8Sep 2010 - 72.9 Feb 2011 - 37.2Sep 2011 - 71.1 Feb 2012 - 40.9Sep 2012 - 70.3 Feb 2013 - 35.1 Sep 2013 - 67.9 Feb 2014 - 32.1 Sep 2014 - 70.5 Feb 2015 - 25.8Sep 2015 - 74.5 Feb 2016 - 38.6Sep 2016 - 73.5 Feb 2017 - 44.2Sep 2017 - 71.4 Feb 2018 - 41.9Sep 2018 - 72.5 Feb 2019 - 37.1Sep 2019 - 72.5 Feb 2020 - 40.8Sep 2020 - 69.4 Feb 2021 - 34.2Sep 2021 - 71.6 Feb 2022 - 39.7Sep 2022 - 72.1 Feb 2023 - 42.7 Sep 2023 - 71.4 Feb 2024 - 40.1 Sep 2024 - 70.6 Feb 2025 - 35.9

2002-03 was similar to 2009-10, but 02-03 falls short of 1.5 benchmark on most measures, while 09-10 clears the 1.5 benchmark on most (ONI, RONI).

94-95 was a moderate el nino. 14-15 was a borderline warm neutral/weak el nino. If you consider it an el nino, it's just a piggy back of the incoming super el nino of 15-16. (19-20 was another piggy back borderline warm neutral/weak el nino, but the other direction - piggy backing off the previous year's el nino, and led into a la nina the following year.) The only strong/super el ninos in the last 75 years are 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1986-88, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2009-10, 2015-16, and 2023-24.

Not really. We had a strong el nino in 1982-83, then the double-year event in 1986-88, and again in 1991-92. That's 3 el nino events in a 10-year span. Then another 6-year gap between the 1991-92 event and 1997-98 (a 4th in just over 15 years). 2009-10 and 2015-16 is another 6-year gap. The common theme with these strong/super el ninos was either a +PDO (like we had for most of the 80s and 90s) or a flip to +PDO (which is what happened in the years leading up to 2015-16). If we can get a flip to +PDO in the next few years, I think a super el nino in 2027-28 can happen.

The 2010 one should definitely debunk the myth. That was a record warm spring, which was followed by a record warm summer. By the way, that was coming off a record snow season (though that one came to an abrupt end, it was done by the end of February, and as early as mid-February in places Baltimore and south).

The ENSO neutral period that started in 2012 was the last real sustained ENSO neutral period. You could even argue that 14-15 was an ENSO neutral season, as the (super) el nino didn't really form until the season was just about over. If 25-26 stays ENSO neutral, I could see a similar sustained ENSO neutral until the inevitable strong/super el nino forms in 27-28.

If we get this, then the Nino 1+2 is going to be somewhere near +3 for 2025-26. We'd get the warmest year on record for 2026, but we'd correct to a strong la nina in 2026-27 (like in 2009-10 -> 2010-11).

I think ENSO neutral is most likely for 2025-26, though I could see a weak la nina or weak el nino. If we get a non-neutral ENSO state in 2025-26, I get the feeling we'll get a sharp correction and a strong ENSO state in the opposite direction in 2026-27 (see 2006-07 -> 2007-08 and 2022-23 -> 2023-24).

Like this doesn't make any sense. Winter 2020 was a snowless winter. It was pretty much done and over with by the beginning of February. If 2020 is the analog for March, then the winter is done: 2020-03-01 45 25 35.0 -4.1 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-02 63 30 46.5 7.1 18 0 0.04 0.0 0 2020-03-03 60 41 50.5 10.9 14 0 0.12 0.0 0 2020-03-04 59 43 51.0 11.1 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-05 53 38 45.5 5.3 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-06 45 33 39.0 -1.4 26 0 0.35 0.0 0 2020-03-07 47 35 41.0 0.3 24 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-08 60 30 45.0 4.0 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-09 71 39 55.0 13.7 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-10 68 48 58.0 16.4 7 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-11 59 43 51.0 9.1 14 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-12 60 40 50.0 7.8 15 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-13 74 49 61.5 19.0 3 0 0.37 0.0 0 2020-03-14 58 43 50.5 7.7 14 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-15 55 40 47.5 4.4 17 0 0.01 0.0 0 2020-03-16 52 36 44.0 0.6 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-17 57 41 49.0 5.3 16 0 0.03 0.0 0 2020-03-18 59 40 49.5 5.5 15 0 0.08 0.0 0 2020-03-19 56 43 49.5 5.2 15 0 0.93 0.0 0 2020-03-20 79 49 64.0 19.3 1 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-21 67 41 54.0 9.0 11 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-22 47 35 41.0 -4.4 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-23 45 38 41.5 -4.2 23 0 0.80 0.0 0 2020-03-24 58 39 48.5 2.5 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-25 49 41 45.0 -1.4 20 0 0.01 0.0 0 2020-03-26 59 35 47.0 0.2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-27 69 49 59.0 11.9 6 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-28 54 47 50.5 3.0 14 0 1.14 0.0 0 2020-03-29 53 47 50.0 2.1 15 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-30 60 45 52.5 4.3 12 0 0.06 0.0 0 2020-03-31 48 41 44.5 -4.1 20 0 T 0.0 0

The ground was muddy at the parade a week and a half ago. A sign that the drought is beginning to ease. This is later than what we want, but at least the drought isn't going on for months on end like in 2002.

Thing is, the WPAC and the EPAC are so disjointed now. If any type of el nino forms in WPAC, even a weak one, the EPAC is almost certainly going to be in a strong el nino state. For us to have a weak el nino, the WPAC probably has to be near ENSO neutral.

Yeah, the last major snowstorm I remember was in January 2016. We've had some hits from time to time, but we haven't had that Big One in almost a decade now.

We already have a neutral this year. Not in the conventional sense (like our last one in 2013-14), but we had a late developing la nina in the WPAC and an el nino in the EPAC.

That was pretty apparent at the beginning of the month. I was there on the Feb. 1-2 weekend, and we got down to 9F overnight. I knew Boston was in for a cool month.