PhiEaglesfan712

The end to this winter/beginning of this spring is eerily similar to 2010. It just ended abruptly in mid/late February, then we have a warm March, and a heat wave in early April. The absence of a definitive ENSO state in 2024-25 is definitely helping this behave like the previous ENSO state, which was a strong el nino.

My phone is saying 78 on Saturday, 69 on Sunday, and 75 on Monday to end out the month. It's going to be very warm. The only question is how warm?

Or we could find a way to keep CJGJ. Because since he entered the NFL: 2019-2021 (No CJGJ) - No playoff wins 2022 (CJGJ) - Super Bowl appearance 2023 (No CJGJ) - Late season collapse 2024 (CJGJ) - Super Bowl Champions 2025 (No CJGJ) - ?

Nah, this has been par for the course in the 2020s. PHL didn't have a trace of snow in March in 2020, 2021, and 2024. If this holds, it will be the 4th time in the first 6 years of this decade with no trace of snow.

If we get a SSW in the coming days, we're looking at something similar to 2010: https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1903446063169581452

As the old saying goes, if the football field is muddy, then the dry period is nearing its end. Good example was the last week of October 2007, the local high school football field was muddy, and the dry period ended soon thereafter. By the way, here is the lastest drought monitor from NWS Mount Holly:

Whether an el nino or la nina develops in 2025-26 depends on whether the WPAC warms (this makes an el nino more likely) or the EPAC cools (this makes a la nina more likely). The JMA is showing an EPAC cooling in the coming months:

The trolling game from @RedSky and @Ralph Wiggum have been on point this year, but #teamsnow will again have their day... By the way, there won't be any snow this month. So for anyone holding out hope, it's time to let it go.

We all knew that wasn't the case when the February 20 snowstorm fell apart. That pretty much marked the end of winter.

I hate to burst your bubble, but it's going to be way too warm for snow. The NWS predicts highs in the mid-to-upper 60s on Thursday.

@GaWxAre we ever going to unpin the 2023-24 el nino topic, and pin this one?

The difference is that 1955-56 was a strong la nina (in fact, it ended a near 40-year drought of strong la ninas, dating back to the very strong la nina of 1916-17). We didn't have a clear ENSO state this year (the WPAC was in a la nina state and the EPAC was in an el nino state). Since 1955-56, we've had 7 strong la nina events (including the 1998-2000 double), and haven't gone more than 18 years without a strong la nina. We are currently in the longest strong la nina drought since 1955-56 and 1973-74, and that would be exceed if we don't get a strong la nina by 2028-29.

1917-18 was the last of a triple la nina, and it piggy backed off the very strong la nina of 1916-17. Explains why global temperature bottomed out in 1917, and why many locations have a coldest winter in 1916-17 or 1917-18. (Global temperatures in 2024 was over 2C warmer than 1917. It's no surprise many of those same locations have a warmest winter of 2023-24.)

It's recycle night here.

2024-25 is the first below average winter at PHL using 1981-2010 since 2014-15. Below average winters and summers since winter 2009-10 (using 1981-2010 averages): Winters: 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2024-25 Summers: 2014 (by 0.2F), 2023 (by 0.1F, but the JAS average is above the summer/JJA average)

I think we need to unpin and close the 2023-24 el nino thread (don't know why that one is still pinned), and merge the 2025-26 ENSO threads into one and pin.

I see more similarity to 2013 than 2014:

It was overcast at 2:10/2:15 this morning, so I didn't even bother to go out and see the eclipse.

March CPC ENSO update:

The JF 2025 MEI comes in at -0.8C.

I walked through mud during the Eagles parade. 2001-02 was probably the last cold season I remember where there was no mud at all. The weather was so warm and dry that fall/winter, we had outdoor recess almost every day, even through the dead of winter.

Even lower than spring 2002?

March is going to end up solidly above average. We already have a +4 temperature departure for the month so far, and at least the next few weeks looks well above average.

I'm not so sure if it's the jet pattern or the deep -PDO. Even when we had the favorable jet pattern, there were 2 years when we had a deep -PDO (11-12 and 12-13). Those were two of the least snowy winters in the mid-Atlantic.