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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    In retrospect, 2018-19 wasn't that bad of a winter, considering the one that followed it. 18-19 was a nickels and dimes winter in the mid-Atlantic, but it was probably the one that provided the most consistent cold shots/snow of all the winters post-2015. Yes, 2017-18 and 2020-21 had more snow, but both of them either had an extended warm period (February for 17-18) or snow shutoff (late December-end of January 20-21). 18-19 is still the coldest Nov-Mar period in PHL post-2015. 1/31/2019 was the last time I really had to layer up. If you want to see an all-around disaster winter, there's 2019-20.
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm particularly looking at December 2-4 here in the Philly area.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    The MEI has been updated. AS was -0.6 and SO was -0.5 I certainly wasn't expecting that, but the la nina is cooked. (Although we got an offical weak la nina on the MEI.)
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, I don't see that Thanksgiving snowstorm coming to fruition. However, I think we are primed for a widespread snow event during the first week of December.
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    The Weather Channel has been very good at predicting crappy (torch) winter months in recent years. They nailed Decembers 2015, 2021, and 2023 in advance. For what it's worth, they have January torching. I think February is going to be the best month for winter weather.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    Cold beginning of December is pretty much locked at this point. The question now is whether any part of the Eastern US can capitalize on this winter.
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    I highly doubt a deep freeze will happen, but I see colder than average temperatures during the first third of the month. There's a very good chance for a snow event during this time frame. However, it will turn warmer than average for the middle third of December. I can see cooler than average temperatures during the final third of December. However, I am not sure of a Christmas snow event. The last White Christmas at PHL was in 2002, and the last snow event near Christmas was December 26, 2010.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    As I have said all along, the first third of December will be colder than average for most of the Eastern US, while the middle third of December will be warmer than average. I think the potential is there for a snowstorm somewhere on Dec. 4 or 5.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    2002-03 to 2009-10 was a weird stretch of 4 one-year el ninos in 8 years. 2002-03 - Moderate el nino 2003-04 - ENSO neutral 2004-05 - Weak el nino 2005-06 - Weak la nina 2006-07 - Weak el nino 2007-08 - Strong la nina 2008-09 - Weak la nina 2009-10 - Strong el nino
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    Not really. That winter was a unicorn, one-of-a-kind. November 1989 was already cold, and it snowed on Thanksgiving (it's still the most recent Thanksgiving snow for PHL). December 1989 was record cold. Then, all of a sudden, the pattern changed and January 1990 was 15 degrees warmer than December 1989. That jump is bigger than the normal March-April or April-May jump. The first third of December is going to be cold, but the middle third should be above average temperaturewise, and overall, December 2024 should be near average. January 2025 is going to be warm like January 1990, but I still think February 2025 will be cold and snowy.
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    I don't want to put my exact location. What I can tell you is that it's still too early to pinpoint exactly where the snow will be. My gut says the mid-Atlantic. However, I can tell you that the first ten or so days of December is going to be below average for most of the Eastern US.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    The last case that fits this criteria was late November/early December 2020. 2020 11 29 -0.95333 0.77863 6 1.2308950 2020 11 30 -1.06396 0.66050 6 1.2523063 2020 12 1 -1.11400 0.51679 6 1.2280341 2020 12 2 -1.10499 0.36181 6 1.1627164 2020 12 3 -1.04231 0.21018 6 1.0632901 2020 12 4 -0.93507 0.07536 6 0.9381018 I'll take my chances with MJO 6. This is what kicked off December 2020 and February 2021.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    lol, it's not going to snow on Friday. The odds of that happening are about the same as Patriots winning the Super Bowl this year or the PDO flipping to positive this winter.
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    I've hinted on this for a while, but the pattern turns colder starting 12/1, and there's potential for a snow event here on 12/4 or 12/5.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    Looks about right to me. The cold arrives around Dec. 1 (give or take a few days). I see a potential snow event in the East on Dec. 4-5.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    It's too early to tell, but 2013-14 is in the early lead for best analog 2025-26. I think 2025 will be a generally rising PDO year, and the extended ENSO neutral phase will continue in 2025-26. (+PDO will come in 2026, and a strong el nino will come right after.)
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    I disagree. I see the first third of December being cool, and I think there's a chance of a snow event on Dec 4 or 5. The second third looks warm, and I think it will be back to cool again the final third. (I go to the Eagles game on Dec. 29. I don't think this one will be a torch like the first week of January 2023.) January is likely to be very warm. As I've said all along, the winter comes down to February. I think that final month of winter looks the most promising, but it's way too early to tell.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, I think 2025 will be more of a rise in the PDO, rather than an el nino formation, kind of like 2013. I think the ENSO in 2025-26 will be near neutral like 2013-14 or 2014-15. I think the el nino is more likely to happen in either 2026-27 or even 2027-28. We're probably getting ready to transition from a secular -PDO period to a secular +PDO period (like in the late 70s).
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    December 2013 and December 2014 were above average, and definitely the outlier months of those winters. November 2013 and November 2014 were well below average, and of course, JFM 2014 and 2015 were the coldest post-1978.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    An 01-02 redux is certainly possible, and I think would be the worst case scenario. After all, that was our last drought, and that was near a solar max (like what we have now). December and January are going to be dry. That is almost certain. I think December is the up-and-down month in regards to temperatures. The first third will be cold, the middle third warm, and the final third cooler than average. I see January torching. February is going to determine if we have a quick one-month winter (like January 2022), or if the entire 2024-25 winter is going to torch like 01-02. It's too early to determine, but it's still possible to get a MJO 8/1 mismatch, to counter the -PDO la nina, in February. If we stay MJO 4/5/6 in February, then we won't have much of a winter. 11-12 had that October 29 snowstorm, then the pattern change at the beginning of November, which caused the torch winter. 01-02 was pretty much doomed from the start.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    ikr, November is already shaping up to be one of the warmest on record. If we get lucky, we might get a Christmas miracle like 1998 (that was in a drought, too), but there is no chance of a blizzard happening in December (or a Top 10 snowiest winter like the entire 66-67 season). I personally think December and January will be dry. December could be close to average, and I think January will torch. If something is going to happen this winter, it will be in February, but we'll need a MJO 8/1 mismatch pattern to combat the -PDO la nina (like we had in February 2021 and January 2022).
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    Keep in mind, our last drought started in fall 2001, and we all know what happened that winter. That one torched from the end of October to the heatwave in mid-April. Just about anything would be an improvement over that winter.
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    Many of those months had widespread warmth. In fact, with the exception of February 2019, PHL had a +5 temperature departure (1981-2010 normals) Dec…2015….51.2….+13.8 JAN…2017….38.5…..+5.6 FEB….2017….44.2….+8.5 FEB…..2018…41.9….+6.2 JAN….2020…38.9….+6.0 DEC….2021….45.3….+7.9 JAN….2023….43.3….+10.4 FEB….2023…..42.7…..+7.0 DEC….2023….43.5…..+6.1 Feb 2019 was just barely above average for us, and was in fact the snowiest month of that winter. Come to think of it, 2018-19 was probably the most consistent winter post-2015 here at PHL. 2017-18 and 2020-21 may have had more snow, but 18-19 didn't have the prolonged warmth that Feb 2018 had or the snow shut-off that mid-Dec to Jan 2020-21 had. Plus, Nov 18 and Mar 19 were well below average temperaturewise, making 18-19 the coldest Nov-Mar post-2015.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think 2001-02 is the best measuring stick. That was the mother of all droughts. It went on for months on end until Q4 2002.
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    Dare I say, could 1978-79 be a good analog? Like this year, that was a failed la nina near a solar max and a dry fall for most of the Eastern Time Zone. Even the PDO (though not perfect) isn't the worst match, with it being a slight -PDO.
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