PhiEaglesfan712

La nina being basically dead does not mean it's not going to torch. In fact, the last time a la nina dissipated (in 2023), January and February absolutely torched in the East. Remember, the East has been in a cool pattern since August. We are due for a well above average temperature departure month.

We've been in a cold streak for the most part since August. We are well overdue for a well warmer than average month.

I'm not really mad about last night's loss. I'd much rather the loss yesterday than next week. If the Eagles had won last night and lost next week, it would have been all for nothing. At least if the Eagles win next week, then everything is forgiven. It's not like we had a perfect home season to defend. (I'm still a bit annoyed that we lost the last game of the 2017 season to the Cowboys before winning Super Bowl LII, but it's been forgiven.) Besides, we kept the 11-win regular season streak alive, and have a chance to tie 2000-04 next year.

Not sure why you posted it again. You could have waited for the ND update, which is probably next week.

Yeah, I posted on Dec 9 that the MEI updated:

lol, this looks more like an el nino or a +PDO than a typical -ENSO/-PDO.

Yeah, the last time a clipper really worked out was the one in January 2005, which turned into a Nor'easter.

That happens in just about any la nina December in years ending in 5 or 0. 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010 were all very cold and snowy Decembers. Even 2020, which was near normal temperaturewise, had a big snowstorm in the middle of the month.

If we don't have a good snowstorm in January 1-10, we might be waiting a long time for one. Maybe even until next year. Remember, we've had below average temperatures for most of the time since August. It's only a matter of time before it swings back the other way, and we have above average temperature departures. And once we have that, the chances of snow will be tougher.

The January 26-27, 2011 snowstorm compares. That was an overnight snow, but I remember the intense thunder snow keeping me awake.

That was the best weather day of the year. I'm sure everyone enjoyed it, well except MJO812. Bring on 80s and sunny any day over the slop we got this weekend.

That was the last real cold blast in the Eastern US. That was also the only winter in the last decade (since 2015-16) that didn't have a uber warm (+5.0 temperature departure) month in the November-March period. If we don't get a torch month in January, February, or March, we would really be bucking a trend.

I was iced last January, as well as in late February/early March 2015.

A shame how the 2001 season ended. The March snow bust really drags that year down because that's the lasting moment everyone remembers from that winter. If the snow bust happened on December 30 (2000) and the major storm happened in early March 2001, no one would care about the snow bust, and everyone would be talking about how 2001 was a decent winter.

We don't even need to go back that far to get a mean monthly temp of 25. That happened in February 2015, part of a 3-month period (January-March 2015) that was the coldest post-1980.

As I've said all along, 80 and sunny doesn't seem so bad after all.

We also had 25 mean temp in Dec 1989, but then we had 40-41 mean temps in Jan and Feb (1990), and 46 mean temp in March.

Great wall-to-wall winter, actually. Technically, 17-18 and 20-21 also had above average December snowfall.

Never said that about December. I've said these type of years tend to have cool Decembers in the East, but very warm Januarys and Februarys. The beginning of January may be cold, but I can pretty much guarantee you that we won't go all the way through the month cold. That doesn't happen anymore, let alone in a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Even in January 2018, the pattern flipped warmer in the East during the 2nd half of the month.

Problem is this is still a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Those types of winters don't cold all the way through December and January, unless you have a relaxed Pacific Jet (like 2010-11), and we don't have that this year. If it was a +ENSO/+PDO (like 2014-15), I'd be easily predicting a cold and snowy January. I think January will turn warm, at least be a near normal, or even above average temperature departure.

Didn't we get the Boxing Day snowstorm in 2010-11? I thought the saying was November... December is already part of winter.

If we don't get one by January 19, then we're going to have to wait a long time for the next snowstorm. I get the feeling we're going to see above average temperatures by the time we hit mid-January. -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD years don't go all the way through December and January cold. That's something that happens in a +ENSO or +PDO winter.

I can't wait for days when it's 80 and sunny out. March 29 was easily the best weather day of this year.

NYC has not had a 4" snowfall since the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm.

Thing is, 2010-11 had a very relaxed Pacific jet (we haven't had that since 2013-15). That's why December and January went all the way through cold. And the west wasn't really that warm in 10-11 (like we had in 13-14 and 14-15). Without a relaxed Pacific jet, I expect things to torch at some point in January. Coldest case scenario is January 2018, which was near normal. February is going to torch. (Sorry for those who love cold, but that's how -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD years tend to work. You just have to hope that winter returns in March. That did happen in 2017 and 2018, and even to a lesser extent, the last week of March 2011.)