PhiEaglesfan712

I remember those great December 5 storms during the 2000s. Three when I was in high school (2002, 2003, and 2005), and another when I was in community college (2007). Of course, 2005 was the Eagles infamous 42-0 loss on MNF.

Finally changing your tune, huh? I told you there wasn't going to be a snowstorm on Christmas and the drought wasn't ending any time soon.

3 out of 4 times, it turned out to be correct. Winter never returned after December 2019, December 2022, and February 2024. (To be fair, I was one who bailed on the extremely cold/snowy February 2024. I thought the snow mid-January would become a cold/snowy 2nd half of winter like 2006-07, but when February started out warm, I knew the analog was toast.) The only one that turned out wrong was December 2021, which of course, had the famous mismatch in January 2022.

I had Torch January predicted back in early September. That's the one thing I haven't wavered from in my winter forecast. December was always going to be a tough month to predict. I had a feeling it was going to start out cold, but I've waffled back and forth on when the warm-up will be.

Torch January was the easiest thing to predict for this winter.

Most of the region is in a drought (the worst since 2001-02). But no, there isn't going to be a snowstorm anywhere near Christmas. Models are showing a warm-up during the 2nd half of December.

The winter of 2013-14 itself wasn't a +PDO, but was one that trended in that general direction. 2014-15 was the +PDO winter, as was the super el nino of 2015-16. 2016-17 was pretty much the opposite of 2013-14, in regards to the PDO.

Didn't we get one in 2015?

I feel like this month is the November 2021, rather than January 2022. It seems like a cool, but dry month. I feel like we're going to get a torch next month, and February will be another cool, but this time snowier, month. 2021-22, if shifted by a month, looks like a fairly good analog to me: November 2024 = October 2021 December 2024 = November 2021 January 2025 = December 2021 February 2025 = January 2022 This winter will end up having a similar temperature profile as 2005-06.

Possible snow event Wednesday night/Thursday morning. December 4-5 usually is a sweet spot for the first snowfall at PHL. See 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2007. Eagles 10-2

2005-06 looks like a very good analog. November 2005 perfectly fits the temperature/precipitation profile of this November. 2005-11-01 70 44 57.0 4.8 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-02 60 43 51.5 -0.4 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-03 67 40 53.5 2.0 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-04 67 44 55.5 4.3 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-05 72 47 59.5 8.7 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-06 74 45 59.5 9.0 5 0 0.06 0.0 0 2005-11-07 62 47 54.5 4.4 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-08 65 44 54.5 4.7 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-09 69 53 61.0 11.6 4 0 T 0.0 0 2005-11-10 69 43 56.0 6.9 9 0 0.29 0.0 0 2005-11-11 49 38 43.5 -5.3 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-12 58 33 45.5 -2.9 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-13 65 41 53.0 4.9 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-14 67 50 58.5 10.7 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-15 71 53 62.0 14.6 3 0 T 0.0 0 2005-11-16 76 45 60.5 13.4 4 0 0.78 0.0 0 2005-11-17 46 33 39.5 -7.3 25 0 T 0.0 0 2005-11-18 40 29 34.5 -12.0 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-19 48 29 38.5 -7.6 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-20 59 34 46.5 0.7 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-21 51 40 45.5 0.0 19 0 0.41 0.0 0 2005-11-22 48 36 42.0 -3.2 23 0 0.62 0.0 0 2005-11-23 37 29 33.0 -11.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-24 51 24 37.5 -7.1 27 0 T T 0 2005-11-25 34 22 28.0 -16.3 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-26 42 25 33.5 -10.5 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-27 53 31 42.0 -1.6 23 0 T 0.0 0 2005-11-28 69 47 58.0 14.7 7 0 T 0.0 0 2005-11-29 69 57 63.0 19.9 2 0 0.53 0.0 0 2005-11-30 63 39 51.0 8.2 14 0 0.17 0.0 0 Then, it flipped to very cold to start December, which lasted for most of the month, until it turned mild towards the end. 2005-12-01 46 36 41.0 -1.5 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-02 42 31 36.5 -5.7 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-03 35 26 30.5 -11.4 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-04 39 29 34.0 -7.6 31 0 0.28 0.6 T 2005-12-05 36 30 33.0 -8.3 32 0 0.03 0.7 1 2005-12-06 37 26 31.5 -9.6 33 0 0.17 3.3 4 2005-12-07 34 23 28.5 -12.3 36 0 0.00 0.0 2 2005-12-08 32 20 26.0 -14.5 39 0 0.00 0.0 1 2005-12-09 36 25 30.5 -9.7 34 0 0.48 2.2 2 2005-12-10 35 22 28.5 -11.5 36 0 0.00 0.0 1 2005-12-11 40 25 32.5 -7.2 32 0 0.00 0.0 T 2005-12-12 39 25 32.0 -7.5 33 0 0.00 0.0 T 2005-12-13 28 17 22.5 -16.7 42 0 0.00 0.0 T 2005-12-14 24 15 19.5 -19.5 45 0 0.00 0.0 T 2005-12-15 47 17 32.0 -6.7 33 0 0.55 0.2 T 2005-12-16 53 34 43.5 5.0 21 0 0.63 0.0 0 2005-12-17 42 28 35.0 -3.2 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-18 42 29 35.5 -2.5 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-19 39 23 31.0 -6.7 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-20 36 19 27.5 -10.0 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-21 34 23 28.5 -8.8 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-22 38 26 32.0 -5.1 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-23 51 30 40.5 3.7 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-24 55 30 42.5 5.9 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-25 55 27 41.0 4.6 24 0 0.40 0.0 0 2005-12-26 47 41 44.0 7.8 21 0 0.02 0.0 0 2005-12-27 47 36 41.5 5.5 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-28 52 30 41.0 5.2 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-29 49 43 46.0 10.4 19 0 0.30 0.0 0 2005-12-30 48 34 41.0 5.6 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-31 40 33 36.5 1.2 28 0 0.11 0.0 0 January turned out to be a torch: 2006-01-01 45 31 38.0 2.9 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-02 45 28 36.5 1.6 28 0 0.92 0.0 0 2006-01-03 45 36 40.5 5.8 24 0 0.45 0.0 0 2006-01-04 43 35 39.0 4.4 26 0 T 0.0 0 2006-01-05 51 37 44.0 9.6 21 0 T 0.0 0 2006-01-06 43 32 37.5 3.2 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-07 36 22 29.0 -5.2 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-08 46 34 40.0 6.0 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-09 60 37 48.5 14.6 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-10 50 36 43.0 9.2 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-11 53 34 43.5 9.8 21 0 0.37 0.0 0 2006-01-12 58 39 48.5 14.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-13 59 35 47.0 13.5 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-14 60 32 46.0 12.6 19 0 0.53 0.2 0 2006-01-15 34 25 29.5 -3.8 35 0 0.02 0.2 T 2006-01-16 32 20 26.0 -7.3 39 0 0.00 0.0 T 2006-01-17 50 27 38.5 5.3 26 0 0.03 0.0 0 2006-01-18 64 35 49.5 16.3 15 0 0.72 0.0 0 2006-01-19 52 33 42.5 9.3 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-20 57 36 46.5 13.4 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-21 61 37 49.0 15.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-22 46 31 38.5 5.4 26 0 0.03 0.0 0 2006-01-23 43 35 39.0 5.9 26 0 1.04 0.0 0 2006-01-24 47 32 39.5 6.4 25 0 0.09 T 0 2006-01-25 41 33 37.0 3.8 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-26 36 27 31.5 -1.7 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-27 44 23 33.5 0.3 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-28 59 30 44.5 11.2 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-29 55 33 44.0 10.6 21 0 0.13 0.0 0 2006-01-30 62 37 49.5 16.1 15 0 T 0.0 0 2006-01-31 46 41 43.5 10.0 21 0 0.01 0.0 0

The Eagles have had quite a few in the last 20 years. The NFC Championship win over the Falcons, the 49ers game in 2009, and the LeSean McCoy game against the Lions in 2013. The Vikings game in 2010 should have never been postponed. But as Ed Randell said, we've become a 'nation of wusses'.

Possibly in late January, but most of the month is going to be warm. I don't see a 2010-11 or 2017-18 type winter.

Yep, the pattern turns back to colder in February. As I said all along: cool December, very warm January, and cool February.

Zero percent chance of this happening. The winter of 2002-03 was close to once in a lifetime. Climate has changed a lot between then and now. We haven't had a clipper since January 22-23, 2005 (that was nearly 20 years ago). Besides, the winter of 2002-03 came at the end of a yearlong drought. The current drought is barely a month old, and in fact, we're closer to where we were heading into the winter of 2001-02. There's a better chance at a 01-02 redux than a 02-03 redux.

I think we're more likely to get a 05-06 or 20-21. I still have hope for a cold and snowy February.

Looks like we will be in MJO 7 for the first half of January, MJO 8 for the second half of January, and MJO 1/2 in February.

Does the Bills game still get played on Sunday night, or will it get postponed?

Our best chance is a snow event the first week of December, a la 2005 or 2007. I feel like the snow will be shut off for a while after that. For sure, the second half of December and most of January is going to be very warm. We just have to hope it flips back in late January or February (2006 and 2021 are good examples).

To be brutally honest, if the global tropics were averaging +4.5C, I'd be more worried about if the planet was still habitable. For sure, where I currently live would be in the Atlantic Ocean if we reached that point. If the planet was still habitable, I'd probably have moved to West Antarctica by that point. (And if the global tropics averaging +4.5C and Nino +2.3C scenario happened while I am still living, I'd probably be looking at Eric Webb's Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index to see if he classified it a strong el nino or a strong la nina.)

But 1992 gives us a precedent for strong/borderline super el nino event not going la nina though, correct?

For the record, I'd gladly take a 1992-93 type winter. That one was backloaded (of course, highlighted by the Blizzard in mid-March), with January being the very warm month. In this 2024-25 climate, I highly doubt we get a blizzard of that magnitude in mid-March. It would probably fall down as mostly rain. That's probably the winter version of Hurricane Sandy.

But we do have a similar precedent for this with 1992 not going la nina (even if it was affected by Mt. Pinatubo, and the global temperatures are ~1C warmer now than in 1992). 1991-92 was a similar el nino strength as 2023-24 (maybe even stronger).

There seems to be a shift with the recent strong el ninos. The 2015-16 and 2023-24 el ninos didn't drop below -0.5C. (This is the first time that two consecutive strong el ninos didn't drop below -0.5 since the 1957-58 and 1965-66 el ninos.) That differs from the 1972 to 2011 period, when all strong el ninos (+1.5) dropped below the -0.5C threshold, except 1991-92. 1957-58 -> no 1965-66 -> no 1972-73 -> yes (strong la nina 1973-74) 1982-83 -> yes 1986-88 -> yes (strong la nina 1988-89) 1991-92 -> no 1997-98 -> yes (strong la nina 1998-2000) 2010-11 -> yes (strong la nina 2010-11) 2015-16 -> no 2023-24 -> no