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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    lol, it's not going to snow on Friday. The odds of that happening are about the same as Patriots winning the Super Bowl this year or the PDO flipping to positive this winter.
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    I've hinted on this for a while, but the pattern turns colder starting 12/1, and there's potential for a snow event here on 12/4 or 12/5.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    Looks about right to me. The cold arrives around Dec. 1 (give or take a few days). I see a potential snow event in the East on Dec. 4-5.
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    It's too early to tell, but 2013-14 is in the early lead for best analog 2025-26. I think 2025 will be a generally rising PDO year, and the extended ENSO neutral phase will continue in 2025-26. (+PDO will come in 2026, and a strong el nino will come right after.)
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    I disagree. I see the first third of December being cool, and I think there's a chance of a snow event on Dec 4 or 5. The second third looks warm, and I think it will be back to cool again the final third. (I go to the Eagles game on Dec. 29. I don't think this one will be a torch like the first week of January 2023.) January is likely to be very warm. As I've said all along, the winter comes down to February. I think that final month of winter looks the most promising, but it's way too early to tell.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, I think 2025 will be more of a rise in the PDO, rather than an el nino formation, kind of like 2013. I think the ENSO in 2025-26 will be near neutral like 2013-14 or 2014-15. I think the el nino is more likely to happen in either 2026-27 or even 2027-28. We're probably getting ready to transition from a secular -PDO period to a secular +PDO period (like in the late 70s).
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    December 2013 and December 2014 were above average, and definitely the outlier months of those winters. November 2013 and November 2014 were well below average, and of course, JFM 2014 and 2015 were the coldest post-1978.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    An 01-02 redux is certainly possible, and I think would be the worst case scenario. After all, that was our last drought, and that was near a solar max (like what we have now). December and January are going to be dry. That is almost certain. I think December is the up-and-down month in regards to temperatures. The first third will be cold, the middle third warm, and the final third cooler than average. I see January torching. February is going to determine if we have a quick one-month winter (like January 2022), or if the entire 2024-25 winter is going to torch like 01-02. It's too early to determine, but it's still possible to get a MJO 8/1 mismatch, to counter the -PDO la nina, in February. If we stay MJO 4/5/6 in February, then we won't have much of a winter. 11-12 had that October 29 snowstorm, then the pattern change at the beginning of November, which caused the torch winter. 01-02 was pretty much doomed from the start.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    ikr, November is already shaping up to be one of the warmest on record. If we get lucky, we might get a Christmas miracle like 1998 (that was in a drought, too), but there is no chance of a blizzard happening in December (or a Top 10 snowiest winter like the entire 66-67 season). I personally think December and January will be dry. December could be close to average, and I think January will torch. If something is going to happen this winter, it will be in February, but we'll need a MJO 8/1 mismatch pattern to combat the -PDO la nina (like we had in February 2021 and January 2022).
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    Keep in mind, our last drought started in fall 2001, and we all know what happened that winter. That one torched from the end of October to the heatwave in mid-April. Just about anything would be an improvement over that winter.
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    Many of those months had widespread warmth. In fact, with the exception of February 2019, PHL had a +5 temperature departure (1981-2010 normals) Dec…2015….51.2….+13.8 JAN…2017….38.5…..+5.6 FEB….2017….44.2….+8.5 FEB…..2018…41.9….+6.2 JAN….2020…38.9….+6.0 DEC….2021….45.3….+7.9 JAN….2023….43.3….+10.4 FEB….2023…..42.7…..+7.0 DEC….2023….43.5…..+6.1 Feb 2019 was just barely above average for us, and was in fact the snowiest month of that winter. Come to think of it, 2018-19 was probably the most consistent winter post-2015 here at PHL. 2017-18 and 2020-21 may have had more snow, but 18-19 didn't have the prolonged warmth that Feb 2018 had or the snow shut-off that mid-Dec to Jan 2020-21 had. Plus, Nov 18 and Mar 19 were well below average temperaturewise, making 18-19 the coldest Nov-Mar post-2015.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think 2001-02 is the best measuring stick. That was the mother of all droughts. It went on for months on end until Q4 2002.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    Dare I say, could 1978-79 be a good analog? Like this year, that was a failed la nina near a solar max and a dry fall for most of the Eastern Time Zone. Even the PDO (though not perfect) isn't the worst match, with it being a slight -PDO.
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    I don't know, this feels like the period after the 2010-12 la nina was declared over, and people were in a rush to print out their "2012-13 super el nino" headlines. Because that will grab a reader's eyeballs more than "2012-13 ENSO neutral". I am skeptical of there being any type of el nino in 2025-26. For one, we are in a deeper -PDO than we were in 2012. (It's very rare to have 2 el ninos in 3 years, let alone in this deep of a -PDO.) What I think is more likely is that the PDO retreats towards neutral in 2025, like it did in 2013. It will happen in this order (1) we stay ENSO neutral for an extended period, (2) the PDO turns positive in 2026 or 2027, and (3) we have the el nino. The "2025-26 el nino" headlines will be printed, but I won't be fooled by them like I was in 2012-13. Yes, the el nino will happen before the decade is over, but like in 2012, the ingredients aren't there just yet.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    This drought is going to give 2001-02 a run for its money. I'm not sure if this drought will match that one in terms of longevity, but barring a major rainstorm (and none is in the forseeable future), a drought emergency has to be declared at some point.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    Also, the MEI (if it ever updates) is almost certainly sub -1, and possibly even sub -1.5 This year is going to be the toughest one to classify.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    It's looking like 2025-26 is going to have a 2013-14 setup. Should I start getting my hopes up or is it too early?
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    It looks to me like it will be one month shifted this year, though. I get the feel that DJF 2024-25 is going to resemble NDJ 2021-22, and we're going to get the MJO 8/1 mismatch in February, rather than January.
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    I see the dry pattern continuing in December and January, with the first third of December being colder than average, the second third of December being warmer than average, and the final third of December being cool. December is going to be like November 2021. January will be a torch, like December 2021. The best hope for this winter is for February to end up being an MJO 8/1 mismatch to the -PDO la nina, like January 2022.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, I'm liking my prediction of a cold first third of December, warm middle third, and cool final third of December (in the mid-Atlantic). November 2021 looks like a very good analog month for December. January is going to torch (like December 2021), though.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    Are we getting AS and SO numbers for the MEI today or tomorrow, or has this been discontinued again?
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    I raise you this: https://weather.com/en-IN/india/news/news/2024-11-08-saudi-arabias-al-jawf-desert-region-sees-historic-snowfall-and-hailstorm
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    Almost looks like late 2012. I expect the PDO to move towards neutral in 2025, like it did in 2013. +PDO el nino in 2026-27 or 2027-28?
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    Since the start of the 2010s, 2014 and 2023 are the only summers with below average temperature departures (using 1981-2010 normals) at PHL. Though if you use JAS (which was warmer than JJA), 2023 turns positive. 2010-11, 2013-14, and 2014-15 are the only winters with below average temperature departures, with JFM 2014 and 2015 being the coldest since 1978.
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    I see December being up and down, kind of like November 2021. The first third of the month will be colder than average, the second third warmer than average, and the final third a bit cool. December is going to be mostly dry, so not much snow. I see January being the torch month, like December 2021. If there is going to be the classic la nina, -PDO, MJO 8/1 mismatch month this winter, it's going to be February.
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