PhiEaglesfan712

Is this men's tennis or women's tennis?

An el nino of +1.0C is almost certainly not going to happen in 2025-26. I think the only time we got an el nino of that strength with a cold subsurface the previous summer was 1994-95, when the subsurface in summer of 1993 looked like this:

I remember September 2020 being on the cool end. Did we also have stronger MJO 5-6 region forcing that year?

I highly doubt an el nino is going to form in summer 2025, especially considering the subsurface was cold this summer. Plus, we are still in a deep cyclical -PDO pattern. An el nino is very unlikely to form under those conditions. Maybe if next summer the subsurface is warm and we have an ENSO neutral or dissipating la nina conditions in late winter/early spring 2026, I might entertain the thought of an el nino forming for 2026-27. El ninos just do not pop up overnight. Their conditions are built under the surface over time. Sometimes, the conditions stay there for several years before they unleash their fury (just look at the years leading up to 1957-58 or the 3 years before 2015-16). You'll know when an el nino is coming, and sometimes years in advance. The conditions for an el nino aren't close to being there.

It would probably have to be an east-based la nina like 2021-22, but the mismatch happening in December, rather than January. ACY would hit a snow jackpot in December in this case, but nothing for the rest of the season.

Can my winter look like this instead:

The sample size of official heat waves in April is really small: 1976, 2002, and 2009. This certainly rings true for 1976 and 2009, but not 2002 (which was a very hot summer). Although each of those followed up with a very cold and snowy winter. Coincidentally enough, each of these years were a developing el nino.

Another reason for the low number of named storms this year is the SSTa configuration. It mirrors quiet non-el Nino years like 1970, 1973, and 2013:

I was thinking you were going to say a weird date outside of the season like October 2, 2019.

At this point, I bet we don't even reach the 140 ACE of 2016.

I'm still salty about Idalia not getting retired. Lesser storms in the past have gotten retired. I guess the WMO changed the criteria and made it harder for storms to be retired. If Idalia didn't get retired, I highly doubt Debbie or Ernesto will. I think only really big storms, like Beryl, will be retired going forward.

This would mark the first time in 27 years that not a single named storm, those with winds of at least 39 mph, has developed in the Atlantic between Aug. 21 and Sept. 2.

I think we've been in a record -PDO cyclical pattern since the beginning of 2020: 2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.59 -0.99 2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.68 -1.84 -2.01 -1.81 -1.96 -0.94 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.71 2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.10 -2.25 -1.33 -2.62 -2.39 -2.29 -1.82 -2.41 -2.21 2023 -1.25 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.98 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66

If we are really flipping to a -AMO, then I guess a flip from the secular -PDO to a secular +PDO period is going to soon follow. When we flipped to +AMO in ~1995, the secular +PDO period (which began in 1976) soon flipped to a secular -PDO following the next el nino -> la nina transition in 1998. That winter we get the -AMO, +PDO, and el nino combination (especially if it's moderate) is going to be a fun and wild one.

I feel like an east based la nina is the only way we're going to salvage the snow season for those living in coastal areas, like ACY. Aside from 2010-11 (which was a widespread blockbuster winter), ACY has underperformed in central-based la nina years. 2020-21 is a very good example of this. Even in ENSO neutral years like 1992-93 and 1993-94, ACY got less than half the snow of PHL and significantly less than Allentown. (In 1993-94, ACY only got a tenth of the amount of snow as Allentown 7.8 in vs. 75.2 in.) The east-based la nina years, 2017-18 and 2021-22, are really the ones where ACY outperformed relative to the region.

I think timing, more than anything, is what killed 2022-23, especially in the mid-Atlantic. By the time the pattern became more favorable, the sun angle was too strong (here in the mid-Atlantic) and the torch winter had already happened. But hey, we did get our coldest June since 1985! Just the fact that May and June were really cold shows the potential of what could have been with better timing. If that favorable pattern had begin to form in late November/December, rather than late February/March, that's a near guaranteed blockbuster winter for most of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

Winter precipitation composite for moderate -PDO la ninas since 1949-50:

December 2022 finished below average temperaturewise here at PHL, making it 2 out of 3 months with a negative temperature departure (along with October 2022). However, I could tell a change was underway during the final 2 days of December. The first week of January was really warm and pretty much set the tone for the rest of the winter. (It was warm more often than not until the last week of April.) I went to the Eagles game that January 1 (we lost to the Saints, in an otherwise outstanding season) and it felt like spring. The climatology shows 57/39, but it easily felt a lot warmer that day, and I didn't really need a coat.

2008-09 la nina (winter) vs. 2022-23 la nina (peak and winter):

Yeah, 07/08 stunk in terms of snowfall in the PHL area. The only saving grace was the winter wasn't overly warm. We even carved out a below average temperature November and a snowfall in early December. The weaker back half of the la nina (08/09) was better. At least we got a cold October-January, a November snowfall, and two 8-in snowstorms (on February 4 and March 1-2) when the temperatures moderated out. I guess that's how 2022-23 could have looked like if things were in place better.

I never really liked the 2022 analog for this year. For one, we don't have a carry over la nina [and one the MEI had as a super la nina] from last season (which dissipated as the season went on). Secondly, the subsurface was warm in 2022, which is the complete opposite of what we have now. I think 2007-08 is the best analog, but the two biggest questions are (1) will the la nina develop, and (2) if it does, will it be an east-based la nina? If the answer to 1 is no, then a blend of 92-93 and 93-94 might come into play. (Pinatubo really skewed 92-93, especially the summer of 92.) Here is the 92-93 and 93-94 blend: If both 1 and 2 are yes, then we might look into years like 2017-18 and 2021-22. If 1 is yes and 2 is no, then I think the 2007-08 analog is probably the best with what we have to work with, though you could use years like 1998-99 or 2016-17. 2022-23 just doesn't work with the setup we have right now. Maybe for 2025-26 if we do end up getting a la nina that peaks in the summer.

If you're a snow lover, this probably isn't the best. We got both in 2011, and that winter (2011-12) ended up being an absolute torch. Of course, we got Sandy the following year, and 2012-13 was another below average snow season.

Off the bat, we can remove 83-84 and 95-96 (we don't have a +PDO) and 13-14 (that was a multi-year ENSO neutral state, and we're coming off a strong el nino). I'll keep 10-11 and 20-21 as outside chances, and only if this remains a central based la nina. Both are first year la ninas, and 10-11 is coming off a similar ENSO state as this year (strong el nino). If this year is an east-based la nina, then 10-11 and 20-21 can be thrown in the trash. Of course, if this becomes an east based la nina, then 17-18 becomes a good analog, as does 21-22.