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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    Thing is, 2023-24 was a strong el nino. Those type of years are wild cards. You never really know what you're going to get with them. You might get a cold and snowy year like 1957-58 or 2009-10, or one that is very warm like 2023-24. Comparing it with the previous 3 years (all moderate la ninas) would be like comparing apples to oranges. La nina years tend to be much more predictable when you know the other surrounding factors.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    2007 was like this until the mudstorm in late October (probably prevented 2007-08 from being a full-fledged drought). That year had a 90-degree day in late September and an 89-degree day on October 8. October ended up as the warmest on record. November and December were cooler than average. January-April 2008 were warm, but nothing out of the ordinary (2-3 degrees above average each month). Overall, a well below average snowfall season.
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    It sucked that the 12/22 block was the short term one and the 3/23 one was long term. It just took too long for all the pieces on the latter block to come together. If the 3/23 block happened in 12/22 instead, and developed the way it did, late January through March would have been cold and snowy during the parts when it wasn't dry.
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    Anti-1986/1987 analog: vs. 2007: Starting from the Dakotas/Texas and all the way eastward, this is nearly a perfect match.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    I don't know if I said this before, but anti-2007 gets us an el nino:
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    December 2016 was the cool month of the winter here at PHL. Almost reminded me a lot of December 2007. January and February 2017 were a lot warmer than average.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, most of this fall is going to be dry, just as in my analog years of 1998 and 2007: We just have to hope for a mudstorm in late October like 2007. Otherwise, we'll have our first drought in a really long time.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    Isn't it common for last year la ninas to die early on? It happened in 1950-51, 1956-57, and to an extent 2022-23. None of those years were good snow years at PHL (all finished below 8 in of snow). Even with the snowy February, 1971-72 finished with just over 12 in of snow at PHL.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    I just have to hope for a mudstorm in late October, like 2007, or we're probably going to have a drought in the mid-Atlantic.
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, we got a record warm October, then the mudstorm happened the last weekend of the month. If not for the mudstorm, we probably would have had a drought during the 2007-08 winter. Of course, November and December were cooler than average. Then, January-April were above average, but nothing really out of the ordinary.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    More likely 2026-27 or even 2027-28. El ninos don't form that quickly. Remember, they were hyping up an el nino in 2012-13, but it didn't form until 2014-15.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    Imagine the cold and snow in the winter following this modoki el nino: I don't think this will happen next summer (as CanSIPS is showing), but I think something like this could form a year or two down the road (in 2026-27 or 2027-28). We'd probably be in +PDO and -AMO. The blob in the North Pacific looks eerily similar to 2013-14 and 2014-15.
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    Of course, 1957-58 is one of those rare cases where everything came together oh so perfectly during a stronger el nino winter:
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    In fall 2011, when I was a student at Drexel, I read this book for one of my classes: I remember somewhere in the book where they talk about the winter of 1957-58 being very snowy and cold.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm a huge tennis fan. Tomorrow is a big sports day for me. Fritz-Tiafoe, then the Eagles play their opener.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, the AMO/PDO flip is going to look something like 2012-16. If something is underway, I think 2024-25 would be the 2012-13 stage. Next summer/fall is when the PDO would be starting to flip. The flip will be apparent by the summer of 2026. Crazy as it sounds, I think we could get the modoki el nino the CanSIPS was showing, but maybe for 2026-27, and that would be the lead up to the super el nino event in 2027-28. Only difference is that the PDO/AMO doesn't flip back like it did in 2016-17.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    Actually, since 2012 (the uber warm 2015 skewed everything): For what it's worth, all of these Decembers were warm: Of course, January-March in those years were cold (not so much 2013, which was a bit cooler than average especially February and March, but 2014 and 2015 were historically cold): FWIW, the warmer Novembers since 2012 (aside from 2015) were 2016, 2020, and 2022. All of those years were central-based la ninas.
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    We just need a mudstorm like late October 2007.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    CFS showing a cool November for the midwest and most of the East (this bodes well for a good winter):
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    Is this men's tennis or women's tennis?
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    An el nino of +1.0C is almost certainly not going to happen in 2025-26. I think the only time we got an el nino of that strength with a cold subsurface the previous summer was 1994-95, when the subsurface in summer of 1993 looked like this:
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    I remember September 2020 being on the cool end. Did we also have stronger MJO 5-6 region forcing that year?
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    I highly doubt an el nino is going to form in summer 2025, especially considering the subsurface was cold this summer. Plus, we are still in a deep cyclical -PDO pattern. An el nino is very unlikely to form under those conditions. Maybe if next summer the subsurface is warm and we have an ENSO neutral or dissipating la nina conditions in late winter/early spring 2026, I might entertain the thought of an el nino forming for 2026-27. El ninos just do not pop up overnight. Their conditions are built under the surface over time. Sometimes, the conditions stay there for several years before they unleash their fury (just look at the years leading up to 1957-58 or the 3 years before 2015-16). You'll know when an el nino is coming, and sometimes years in advance. The conditions for an el nino aren't close to being there.
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    It would probably have to be an east-based la nina like 2021-22, but the mismatch happening in December, rather than January. ACY would hit a snow jackpot in December in this case, but nothing for the rest of the season.
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