PhiEaglesfan712

While the highest correlation to el nino may happen 3-5 years after a strong el nino, it is interesting to note that the 1997-98 and 2015-16 super el ninos happened in Year 6 following a strong el nino. I'm looking at you 2029-30 (just kidding). I count at most 6 years that could be ENSO neutral since 1994. For sure, 1996-97, 2001-02, 2003-04, 2012-13, and 2013-14 are ENSO neutral. 2019-20 would be the sixth (though you could make a case for a weak el nino). I don't see a 7th, although 2014-15 would be the closest (depends what you consider the cutoff for the season, and whether the ramp up to the strong event counts). I think all seasons since 2015-16 are a clear el nino or la nina, with the exception of the aforementioned 2019-20.

If the la nina doesn't sustain after this year, I'm pretty sure a pattern change is under way and we flip to +PDO by the next el nino. That said, do you think we go straight to el nino, or do we get a year or two of ENSO neutral first?

PHL Winter Temp/snowfall in strong/super el nino years 1957-58: Temp 33.1 F, Snowfall 41.8 in 1965-66: Temp 32.5 F, Snowfall 27.4 in 1972-73: Temp 36.0 F, Snowfall 0 in 1982-83: Temp 36.5 F, Snowfall 35.9 in (blizzard in February, latest ever snow on April 19-20) 1987-88: Temp 33.7 F, Snowfall 15.0 in 1991-92: Temp 37.6 F, Snowfall 4.7 in 1997-98: Temp 40.4 F, Snowfall 0.8 in 2009-10: Temp 33.8 F, Snowfall 78.7 in 2015-16: Temp 41.3 F, Snowfall 27.5 in (blizzard in January skews the total) 2023-24: Temp 40.1 F, Snowfall 11.2 in

Most recent ENSO event by strength Super El Nino: 2015-16 Strong El Nino: 2023-24 Moderate El Nino: 2002-03 [we're definitely due for one of these, right?] Weak El Nino: 2018-19 (or 2019-20?) ENSO Neutral: 2013-14 (or 2019-20?) Weak La Nina: 2017-18 Moderate La Nina: 2022-23 Strong La Nina: 2010-11

I have been saying that the later the la nina peaks, the stronger it will be. I still think it's possible that we get something similar to 2007-08, which peaked in DJF at around -1.7 on the ONI.

The Philadelphia 76ers have signed Paul George to a 4-year, $212 million contract. Let's see if the Sixers finally get it right in Year 13 of the Process.

I agree that there will be an el nino later this decade. We haven't gone more than 5 years without one since like 1946-47. If we don't buck this trend, then we're bound to have an el nino by 2028-29. If we get a multi-year el nino, I think it will be more like 2014-16 where the first year is a weak el nino, building into a much stronger el nino the second year, rather than 1986-88. Regarding 2025-26, it's not going el nino unless, at the very least, the -PDO pattern flips to a +PDO. If we stay in -PDO, then I can see 2025-26 being anywhere from ENSO neutral to strong la nina.

One reason why there won't be an el nino in 2025-26: Since 1949-50, there hasn't been an el nino 2 years following any strong el nino. Besides, if there were an el nino in 2025-26, then we'd almost certainly have a +PDO pattern. The next el nino won't be until 2026-27 at the earliest, and even that isn't a given.

I think it's just a last gasp of a strong el nino, like June 1998. I wouldn't be surprised if we were at -1.1C on the ONI in 2-3 months. 1998 shows that a late-developing la nina can become a strong la nina.

Imagine if that pattern was in place any time between late December and March. We would have gotten a big snowstorm out of that.

In short, if there's an el nino in 2026-27 (Year 3), it's going to be no stronger than moderate. If there is an el nino in 2027-28 or 2028-29 (Year 4 or 5), there's a good chance it will be moderate or even strong. If there's an el nino in 2029-30 (Year 6), it's going to be a super el nino like 1997-98 or 2015-16. (There has never been an el nino in Year 2 following a strong el nino.)

I think 2003-04 would be a better analog than 2001-02. At least we were coming off a moderate el nino in 2003. In 2001, we were coming off a triple-year la nina. At least in 2003-04, we got a very cold first half of winter and a last hurrah in mid-March (after a warm February and early March).

To be fair, with the exception of the 2014-16 El Nino, we've been in an extended -PDO pattern ever since the spring of 1998 (when the super el nino of 1997-98 dissipated).

At least these upper 90s/100s are balancing out the mid-60s highs of last June 21/22.

Strong el ninos and 3-4 year aftermath (+ Year 5 if 3/4 are not strong el ninos) Bolded are years where strong el nino -> strong la nina transitions happened 1957-58: ENSO neutral, ENSO neutral (Year 5: ENSO neutral) 1965-66: Moderate el nino, weak el nino (Year 5: moderate la nina) 1972-73: Strong la nina, moderate el nino (Year 5: moderate el nino) 1982-83: ENSO neutral, moderate el nino (Year 5: strong el nino) 1987-88: ENSO neutral, strong el nino 1991-92: Moderate el nino, moderate la nina (Year 5: ENSO neutral) 1997-98: Weak la nina, neutral (Year 5: moderate el nino) 2009-10: ENSO neutral, ENSO neutral (Year 5: weak el nino) 2015-16: Weak el nino, maybe weak el nino (Year 5: moderate la nina) Year 3 aftermaths: 2/9 moderate el nino, 1/9 weak el nino, 4/9 ENSO neutral, 1/9 weak la nina, 1/9 strong la nina Year 4 aftermaths: 1/9 strong el nino, 2/9 moderate el nino, 5/9 weak el nino/ENSO neutral, 1/9 moderate la nina Year 5 aftermaths (exclude 1992-93): 1/8 strong el nino, 2/8 moderate el nino, 1/8 weak el nino, 2/8 ENSO neutral, 2/8 moderate la nina FWIW, the 1991-92 and 2009-10 Year 6 aftermaths resulted in the super el ninos of 1997-98 and 2015-16.

According to NWS Mt. Holly, average temperatures today are 2 degrees F warmer than in 1925: 2011 was the last time it passed 100 at Lehigh Valley International Airport. Despite that, the average temperature is still 2 degrees hotter than it was 99 years ago.

EURO got it right last year, but it's been a mixed bag the last 17 years. 9 years were clear misses. 6 years they got right (07, 09, 15, 18, 19, and 23). Two are on the fence, they hinted correctly at la ninas in 10 and 16, but ended up stronger than predicted: ’23 +2.04/+1.92/+1.49 - in range ’22 -0.25/-0.92/-1.03 - miss ’21 -0.30/-0.98/-1.21 - miss ’20 -0.49/-1.27/-1.52 - miss ’19 +0.67/+0.51/+0.24 - in range ‘18 +1.1/+0.9/+0.8 - in range ’17 +0.4/-0.8/-1.1 - miss ‘16 -0.4/-0.7/-1.1 - 50/50 (got the hint of a weak nina, but ended up stronger) ’15 +2.4/+2.6/+2.3 - in range ’14 +1.3/+0.6/+0.5 - miss ’13 +0.6/-0.2/-0.2 - miss ‘12 +1.2/+0.1/-0.1 - miss *’11 +0.1/-1.0/-0.9 - miss *’10 -1.0/-1.6/-1.7 - 50/50 (got the hint of a significant nina, but ended up stronger) *’09 +1.3/+1.0/+0.9 - in range *’08 +0.3/-0.4/-0.4 - miss *’07 -1.1/-1.3/-1.3 - in range

It's way too early to tell. 2026-27 could be a 3rd year la nina, a developing el nino, or even an enso neutral season. Here are the TS/H/M stats for all years 2 following the first year of a multi-year la nina: 1951 (developing moderate el nino): 12/8/3 1956 (3rd year la nina, weak): 12/4/1 1972 (developing super el nino): 7/3/0 1975 (3rd year la nina, strong): 9/6/3 1985 (enso neutral): 11/7/3 1990 (enso neutral): 14/8/1 2000 (3rd year la nina, weak): 15/8/3 2009 (developing strong el nino): 9/3/2 2012 (enso neutral): 19/10/2 2018 (developing weak el nino): 15/8/2 2022 (3rd year la nina, moderate): 14/8/2 Aside from 2012, a lot of average to below average seasons, even the ones that are a la nina. It seems like the enso neutral seasons overperform.

1995-96 and 2005-06 are examples of one year la ninas. Both were well above average hurricane seasons, with the latter setting all kinds of records.

I remember this blocking pattern. If only we can get something like this in winter:

lol, that's a nice blocking pattern in the Eastern US. Imagine if that was in place in any time between late December and March.

This prediction turned out to be wrong, as 2021 was a record breaking warm summer for most of the Western US.

We're finally getting that Eastern ridging pattern of summer 2010-2012.

Here at PHL, 1981-82 to 1984-85 was actually a good stretch. January 1982, 1984, and 1985 all had below zero cold shots and above average snow. (1/19/1994 was the only time in the almost 40 years since that we got a cold shot as bad as January 82, 84, 85.) Also, 82 and 83 had April snowstorms, and 84 had a cold and snowy March.