PhiEaglesfan712

CFSv2 ENSO probability index has 2024-25 challenging 1973-74 and 1988-89 for the strongest la nina ever:

Looks like above average temperatures for my trip to Buffalo:

Don't see below normal temperatures anywhere near here:

List of El Nino to La Nina transition years (bolded are best analog years for 2024-25) 1954: Weak El Nino -> Weak La Nina (followed by Strong La Nina in 1955-56) 1964: Moderate El Nino -> Weak La Nina 1970: Weak El Nino (preceded by Moderate El Nino in 1968-69) -> Moderate La Nina 1973: Super El Nino -> Strong La Nina 1983: Super El Nino -> Weak La Nina (followed by Moderate La Nina in 1984-85) 1988: Strong El Nino -> Strong La Nina 1995: Moderate El Nino -> Moderate La Nina 1998: Super El Nino -> Strong La Nina (repeated in 1999-2000) 2005: Weak El Nino -> Weak La Nina 2007: Weak El Nino -> Strong La Nina 2010: Strong El Nino -> Strong La Nina 2016: Super El Nino -> Weak La Nina (repeated in 2017-18) 2020: Maybe Weak El Nino (preceded by Weak El Nino in 2018-19) -> Moderate La Nina (repeated in 2021-22 and 2022-23)

I feel like we're overdue a strong la nina season. The last was 2010-11, which means we are in the longest stretch without a strong la nina since the 17-year gap between 1955-56 and 1973-74. I just don't want another moderate la nina season. We've just had 3 consecutive ones before the strong el nino.

If we get a strong la nina, then I don't see us having another El Nino until at least 2027-28. There were 4 times we have gone from strong el nino to strong la nina, and each time, the next el nino was at least 3 years later. 1973 - Next el nino was 1976-77 (3 years later, moderate repeated following year) 1988 - Next el nino was 1991-92 (3 years later, strong) 1998 - Next el nino was 2002-03 (4 years later) 2010 - Next el nino was 2014-15 (4 years later, following year would be a super el nino) There have been 8 strong la nina years. Only once, in 1976 (following the 3rd year of a la nina), did we transition to any type of el nino.

Winter's last hurrah is here. After this weekend, we can let go of any hopes for additional snow.

Coming from a strong el nino, this almost certainly means this upcoming winter is going to be a strong la nina.

The last gasp of winter is coming up this week, and it's looking like just sunshine and no snow. The shovels can just about be put away.

2022-23 was a bit weird. Early on, it looked like it was going to dip into a strong la nina (like 1975-76), but it stayed a moderate la nina for the 3rd straight year, then dissipated quickly and transitioned into a strong el nino the following season.

Yes, it's happened in 1973, 1988, 1998, and 2010 - the four years that transitioned from a strong or super el nino into a strong la nina.

Latest CPC ENSO Probability:

The last season in the Top 10 snowiest seasons is incorrect. It should be 2010-2011, which finished with 44.0 inches. PHL_MONTHLY-31.xls

List of strong and moderate la ninas since 1950 (based on Ensemble and NOAA): Strong: 1955-56 (5 - considered Strong by Ensemble, Moderate by NOAA), 1973-74 (6), 1975-76 (5 - considered Strong by NOAA, Moderate by Ensemble), 1988-89 (6), 1998-99 (5 - considered Strong by NOAA, Moderate by Ensemble), 1999-2000 (6), 2007-08 (6), 2010-11 (6) Moderate: 1949-50 (4), 1970-71 (4), 1984-85 (3 - considered Moderate by Ensemble, Weak by NOAA), 1995-96 (3 - considered Moderate by NOAA, Weak by Ensemble), 2011-12 (4), 2020-21 (4), 2021-22 (4), 2022-23 (3 - considered Moderate by Ensemble, Weak by NOAA)

The 2023-24 season is officially a consensus strong el nino, as Eric Webb has updated the Ensemble website, calling it a strong el nino: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html This is in agreement with NOAA: https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm Strong/Super El Ninos since 1950 Super El Nino: 1972-73 (7 - considered Super by Ensemble, but Strong by NOAA), 1982-83 (8), 1997-98 (8), 2015-16 (8) Strong El Nino: 1957-58 (6), 1965-66 (6), 1987-88 (6), 1991-92 (6), 2009-10 (5 - considered Strong by Ensemble, but Moderate by NOAA), 2023-24 (6)

If we were going to get a revisit of 09-10, it would have been this year with the strong el nino, but as they say "no two el ninos are alike". Our last true enso neutral season was 2013-14, a blockbuster snow season (although the year before, 2012-13, was another enso neutral season, but not a great snow season). However, it's unlikely that we're getting that in 2024-25. The most likely scenario is the strong la nina. Good news: The last strong la nina was 2010-11, which followed the strong el nino of 2009-10. We had an above average snow season in 2010-11, and the Atlantic was warm in 2010. 10-11 is one of the best analog years (along with 73-74) for 2024-25.

It was March 2001: https://www.nytimes.com/2001/03/07/nyregion/fickle-storm-no-blizzard-was-more-trouble-for-some-than-for-others.html I was in 7th grade. Saturday was the 3rd, and I remember the talk about the big storm. Here is a map of the potential storm snowfall on The Weather Channel:

Not this year. Strong el nino to strong la nina transitions tend to favor above average temperatures in the spring and summer months in Philly . 2010 is the best example of this. The summers of 1973, 1988, and 2010 were (at the time) record warm summers in Philly (although the heat in 1988 abruptly ended in mid-August and produced a historically cold October).