PhiEaglesfan712

I wonder if the MEI has a cold bias since 2021-22. It shows 2023-24 (a consensus strong el nino) with about the same strength as 2006-07 (a weak el nino). Also, 2021-22 and 2022-23 are shown as super la ninas, even though they were only moderate la ninas in the ONI. But if we use the MEI, then 2007-08 is a perfect analog, lol.

So why did 2008-09 work out and produce a decent winter, but not 2022-23? Was it a timing issue or is there something more to it?

2008-09 was essentially 2022-23 if it had panned out:

Other than the -PDO, I really don't see the similarities with 2022. I've settled on 1998 and 2007 being the best fit years, with maybe 2016 as the 3rd analog. This is an el nino -> la nina transitioning year, with a very cold subsurface. I just can't get passed how far apart the subsurface pictures of 2022 and 2024 (it's almost as if they're anti-logs off each other):

Most of 2013-15 didn't really have an ENSO signal. The full-fledged el nino really started to develop in early 2015. So why were those winters blockbusters? Was it the +PDO?

Okay, so next time a 2022-23 pattern comes along, I just have to hope for -AO in September then. This would mean a very warm October and November, but at least we'll get a decent winter. That said, I don't like 2022-23 as an analog for this winter. That one was a ready made la nina that peaked early, dissipated during the winter, and had a warm subsurface. We have the opposite of that here. If I was using an analog year from that triple la nina group, I'd use 2020-21 instead (and even that one isn't the best).

It depends on the context, but the one thing you can rule out is the emergence of a strong/super el nino (these will only form if the subsurface has been warm for several years). If the prior pattern is a la nina, I'd think almost certainly the momentum from that pattern would continue into the following year. There are even some la ninas that continue when the subsurface turns warm. Although if an el nino somehow came from this, I'd think it would be weak because there is no warm water in the subsurface to support a full-fledged el nino.

Not everyone got screwed. The midwest got a good November/December and March/April out of this. Timing is what screwed it up on the East coast. When you break 2022-23 down into 2-month blocks, it gets very interesting. If only May/June was January/February instead.

The way the last week of April, and all of May and June were cold shows that the 2022-23 set-up can work. However, the pattern that came on in March needs to be in place 3-4 months earlier (in November or December) to work. The potential is there for snow with a cold January/February or February/March. We're not going to get snow with a cold May/June.

The CFS is now showing a cold September, as well as a cool autumn:

Moderate vs. Strong la nina composites. Moderate la nina: Moderates without 84-85 and 95-96 (could be a good analog for this upcoming winter): Strong la nina:

Winter peaking moderate vs. strong vs. super el nino composites. Moderate el ninos (this seeems like the sweet spot, if you want a cold and snowy winter): Strong el ninos (hit or miss, for every 1957-58 and 2009-10, there's a 2023-24): Super el ninos (SOL, unless you get that big storm like 1983 and 2016):

I just took a look at those seasons. 1966 perfectly fits the definition of a skew season. This is one where the strongest storm (Inez) and 2nd strongest (Faith) ate up all the ACE, lol. 1968 was a tame season. All 3 of the hurricanes were category 1's. Not to mention, we had a long lull from mid-June to mid-August with no storms, and there were no major hurricanes. Then again, this was a developing el nino season, one that reached moderate strength. 1995 and 2005 have been discussed ad nauseum. 2005 is the mother of all seasons. That one was already hyperactive at this point, as we were already on 'I' (with Irene). We're not going to reach any of those benchmarks this season, lol. (We could reach the 1995 marks, though.)

This is the absolute worst set of la ninas you can use for this upcoming winter, but if you ever have a +PDO la nina winter, here is the analog:

Fall 2024 temperature outlook: Winter 2024-25 temperature outlook: Spring 2025 temperature outlook:

Hypothetically, what could happen if a strong la nina peaked in summer 2025:

I feel like 22-23 would have been more cold and snowy in the East Coast if the set-up was in place a few months earlier. We got the cold, but it was in late April through June. Imagine if the pattern was 3 months earlier. This is the late April rainstorm we got. Imagine if it was in late January, the heart of winter: 2023-04-26 64 43 53.5 -4.9 11 0 0.06 2023-04-27 61 49 55.0 -3.7 10 0 0.05 2023-04-28 56 49 52.5 -6.5 12 0 1.33 2023-04-29 61 49 55.0 -4.4 10 0 0.63 2023-04-30 63 52 57.5 -2.2 7 0 1.51 Or if this happened in March, instead of June: 2023-06-14 77 63 70.0 -3.2 0 5 0.17 2023-06-15 79 59 69.0 -4.6 0 4 0.00 2023-06-16 73 61 67.0 -6.9 0 2 1.04 Of if the record cold summer soltice happened on the vernal equinox instead: 2023-06-21 66 59 62.5 -12.9 2 0 0.18 2023-06-22 68 59 63.5 -12.1 1 0 T 2023-06-23 73 63 68.0 -7.9 0 3 0.56 2023-06-24 82 69 75.5 -0.7 0 11 0.02 2023-06-25 87 68 77.5 1.1 0 13 0.09 2023-06-26 87 67 77.0 0.4 0 12 0.51 2023-06-27 84 66 75.0 -1.9 0 10 1.07

Not really. Dean and Felix didn't prevent 2007 from being a very low ACE season total, despite that year doing close to the climatological normals numberwise (15/6/2).

Individual moderate la nina events. 1949-50 (Yes, this was east-based): 1970-71 (possibly east based): 1984-85 (possibly east based): 1995-96: 2011-12: 2020-21: 2021-22 (Yes, this is east based): 2022-23:

Composite of the ONI moderate la nina years (updated to include the 2020-23 triple la nina):

1998-99 had some moments. It was warm for most of the winter, but we got some good snows in the first half of January and in mid-March. Also, the snow on Dec 23-24, just a few days after we had 60-degree record warmth (and a few weeks earlier, it was in the 70s). That was the White Christmas that came out of nowhere! (We're well overdue for a White Christmas. I think the last one was 2002.)

Hypothetical summer 2025 strong la nina peak:

For the individual ones, it looks like 1975-76 is the closest to an east-based la nina. 1973-74: 1975-76: 1988-89: 1998-99: 1999-2000: 2007-08: The year with the closest to the east-based la nina is the one with the warmest RONI (peaked at only -1.14). All the other years at least got down to the -1.5 mark. I guess to get an east-based la nina, we may need a cold ONI and a warmer RONI, which of course, we're not getting this year.

Here is the composite of all the ONI strong la nina years:

What site did you use to get this? And how far does this go back? I want to see if I can create the other strong la nina years.