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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    I thought we had one in late June 2012, just ahead of the early July 2012 heatwave.
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    I feel like if the PDO doesn't reverse, especially with how big of an el nino we are expected to have, we are pretty much in a permanent -PDO. We haven't had a +PDO winter now since 2015-16, which was more than a decade ago, and is unprecedented. Even in previous predominant -PDO periods, we got a +PDO in there somewhere. Also, if we don't reach 175 ACE this year, it would be sixth straight year that we don't reach the threshold. Here is a list of longest periods with no hyperactive (175+ ACE) seasons: 1. 1962-1994 (33 seasons) 2. 1894-1925 (32 seasons) 3. 1934-1949 (16 seasons) 4. 2006-2016 (11 seasons) 5. 1927-1932 (6 seasons) [2026 would tie this streak, which began in 2021] The thirteen hyperactive (175+ ACE) seasons are: 1893 1926 1933 1950 1955 1961 1995 1998 2003 2004 2005 2017 2020
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    As I said, I'm going to wait until the fall before taking this seriously. If the strong winter signal is still there in September/October, then you know it's going to be a cold and snowy winter. 2009-10 was the last time a strong winter signal held in the fall during a developing strong el nino. Contrast that to 2015-16 and 2023-24, when there was no strong winter signal in the fall months.
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    It depends on how early the el nino dissipates. If it peaks earlier than normal (in the fall, rather than winter), then we might get a robust la nina that challenges 1973-74 and 1988-89 (both of these, of course, followed robust el ninos).
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    Very low, less than 0.001%. Our strongest el ninos (namely 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16) ended up between 2.5-3C. 5C is way off the charts.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    All I know is that if we get a 5.0 and the PDO stays negative, then we're likely in a permanent -PDO.
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm surprised 2015 didn't hold the record. It rained heavy in the morning and later in the day.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    Last summer was as frontloaded as you can get temperaturewise. The highest temperature was reached in June, and the summer was pretty much over on July 31.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    An interesting trend with the QBO this decade, with it wildly swinging back and forth from +QBO to -QBO each year): 2020-21: +QBO (11.15) 2021-22: -QBO (-26.34) 2022-23: +QBO (12.89) 2023-24: -QBO (-25.86) 2024-25: +QBO (13.78) 2025-26: -QBO (-26.92) 2026-27: +QBO? (2027-28: -QBO?) (2028-29: +QBO?)
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    1982-83 was a classical backloaded winter in the mid-Atlantic. In addition to the February blizzard, there was a snow/freeze event on April 19-20. Places as far south as North Carolina got a hard freeze.
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    Do you know what is causing the wild temperature swings this spring and summer? This is like the 5th month in a row, dating back to March, where we have set a new temperature swing record.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    The last 3 days were perfect Eagles weather. 103, 102, and 101 degrees.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    If the Eastern US is going to be cold in a strong/super el nino, I feel like the record warmth will have to be centered around the PNW or southwestern Canada. (2009-10's record warmth was centered around southwestern Canada, which had an effect on the 2010 Winter Olympics.) The fact that there is a warm signal in southwest Canada is promising.
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    PHL at 101 at 4 pm. This is the first time PHL has ever reached 101 on 3 consecutive days.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    June 2026 PDO: -1.75 AMJ 2026 ONI: 1.0 AMJ 2026 RONI: 0.5
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    PHL has reached 100 for the 2nd straight day.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    Barring a major volcano, I'm almost certain next summer in the Eastern US is going to smash the average temperature record, even if the hottest day won't reach the highs of 2011 and this year, especially if we transition to a strong la nina. I'm almost sure that if Pinatubo didn't happen, 1992 would have been another record warm summer in the East, along with the rest of the 1991-95 period.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    PHL is at 101 Reading 102 ABE reached 100 (first 100 since July 22, 2011)
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, NWS Mt. Holly no longer has to tweet about Lehigh Valley Airport not reaching 100 degrees since 2011. They can just focus on tweeting that average temperatures are ~2F warmer now than in 1925.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    That's probably right. PHL's heat index was 129 and dewpoint 82.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    Now, it's time to see if ABE or Wilkes Barre-Scranton get to 100. ABE last hit 100 on July 22, 2011, and Wilkes Barre-Scranton last hit 100 on July 15, 1995.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yep, triple digits is a sure bet for almost all of the region. Today is going to rival 7/15/1995 and 7/22/2011.
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yep, CPK is going to hit 100 today, as is almost the rest of the region. This is going to rival 7/22/2011.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    Even December 2001 was near record warm, so the cold period was really 2002-2010. Heck, you could even make the argument the cold period for December ended in 1989. Decembers from 1990 forward average 4 degrees warmer than the Decembers from 1960-1989 here at PHL.
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    Official low at PHL was 80 per the 6-hour obs. We're going to challenge the 83 set in the 2010 and 2011 heatwaves.
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