PhiEaglesfan712

The sun is finally out for the first time since I've returned home.

The further south, it is more noticeable earlier. For example, Charlotte hasn't seen a 10-inch snow season since 2003-04, or even an above average snow season since 2013-14.

If this happens, then I think we'll know for sure if the low snow cycle since the post-mid 2010's el nino is here to stay. We'd be heading into a similar pattern as 13-14, 14-15, and 15-16, years which set multiple cold and/or snowstorm records. If we don't get any notable cold and/or snowstorm during such a regime, then it's safe to say that we've reached a point of no return. At that point, we'd have over a decade of evidence, as well as a favorable pattern, which resulted in low snow.

lol at this one getting unpinned before the 2023-24 thread. 2011 was a record wet August and September and 2013 was a record wet summer. Plus, that summer pretty much ended in late July.

Back home now. Miserable and drizzling at the airport and at home. But I can confirm that it never rains in California.

Highs today Downtown LA - 74 Long Beach - 70 LAX - 71 I will return home tomorrow.

Highs today Downtown LA - 90 Long Beach - 83 LAX - 78

I'm on vacation, so I'm posting obs from where I am. I'll be back home Tuesday night. Has it rained since I've been on Thursday?

Highs today Downtown Los Angeles - 99 Long Beach - 95 LAX - 81 All are record highs.

Today's highs Downtown LA - 91 Long Beach - 89 LAX - 71

Today's highs Downtown LA - 81 Long Beach - 78 LAX - 69

I'm heading off to California, and will be back on Tuesday. If I post, it will be the weather conditions at LAX until then.

1988 was actually one of the warmest summers on record at that point. Coincidentally, October 1988 was one of the coldest on record. If the 32 low in July is true, I'd be willing to bet they got a sub-zero low during that October.

The one for PHL is much harder to break. If I remember correctly, the record HI was set three days after my 7th birthday, on 7/15/1995. The high that day was 103, and I believe the HI was 129 and the dewpoint was 82 (which was even higher than the low of 81 that day). That day was just the perfect storm of the heat and humidity coming together. I can't see it ever being broken. We'll either need a very humid 101/102 degree day or a day when the thermometer reaches 108, which is 2 higher than the all-time PHL record (like it did in Newark in 2011).

I really hope not. We're already getting lows in the 80s here in PHL. I can't imagine living through lows of 90 and highs near 110.

FMA 2025 ENSO (NOAA): -0.2 FMA 2025 RONI: -0.68 April 2025 PDO: -1.18

Are you sure this is a warm phase: 2003 1.45 1.23 1.01 0.36 0.21 -0.42 0.37 0.63 -0.17 0.74 -0.23 -0.60 2004 -0.55 -0.21 -0.15 -0.00 0.61 -0.11 0.04 0.24 0.02 -0.72 -1.22 -0.64 2005 -0.15 -0.01 0.70 0.28 1.36 0.85 0.11 -0.42 -0.99 -2.00 -1.89 -0.10 2006 0.54 0.38 -0.74 -0.54 -0.37 0.21 0.39 -0.85 -1.54 -0.46 -0.81 -0.42 2007 -0.69 -0.71 -1.10 -0.46 -0.29 -0.07 0.43 0.09 -0.97 -2.33 -1.46 -0.87 This looks like a neutral period to me, kind of like 2016-19.

PHL finishes April with a 56.6 avg temp, which is 2.6 degrees above the 1981-2010 average. PHL is on track for a 5th straight spring with well above average temperatures. For the 2024-25 season, PHL finished with 8.1 inches of snow, which is the 7th time in 9 years (dating back to the 2016-17 season) that PHL finished with below average snowfall. 2017-18 is the only season in that timespan that had slightly above average snowfall, while 2020-21 had near average snowfall.

With April over, PHL officially finishes the 2024-25 season with 8.1 inches of snow. This is the 7th time in 9 seasons (dating back to 2016-17) that PHL has finished below average in snowfall. 2017-18 was the only season in that timespan that finished slightly above average in snowfall (and that was due to a record snowfall in March), while 2020-21 finished near average in snowfall.

People are misusing the word cycle. It's meant to describe a short-term pattern. Like the 2014-16 +PDO period is a cycle. The word to describe a long term pattern is secular. Like the 1976-1998 +PDO pattern is a secular pattern. So, 2014-16 was a +PDO cycle in the secular -PDO pattern that started in 1998. Just like in the stock market, 2003-07 was a bull market cycle in the secular 2000s bear market. Or the 1987 stock market crash was a bear market cycle in the 1983-1999 secular bull market.

This happened too late to help the mid-Atlantic region. We didn't really see the full effects of this until May/June, which was the coldest in my area since 1985. If only this happened a few months earlier...

I know it's way too early, but 2013-14 is the one year that stands out as the best analog wrt QBO, PMM, PDO, still elevated solar/geomag activity, etc. The last piece in the puzzle is the WPAC jet. If we can get that back to the favorable state that we had 2009 and 2013 (that storm a few weeks ago is the first promising step), then I really like our chances at our first blockbuster winter since prior to the mid-2010s super el nino.

Today is the last day in the PHL climo that the record high temp is below 90. After today, you'll have to wait until September 29 to find a record high under 90.

Second or later year of ENSO neutral (since 1949-50) - PHL 1960-61 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 28.9F DJF; 49.1 in snow 1961-62 (3rd year of ENSO neutral): 30.5F DJF; 29.2 in snow 1962-63 (4th year of ENSO neutral): 28.3F DJF; 20.5 in snow 1967-68 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 32.6F DJF; 15.9 in snow 1981-82 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 31.2F DJF; 25.4 in snow 1993-94 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 33.0F DJF; 23.1 in snow 2013-14 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 33.0F DJF; 68 in snow 2014-15 (3rd year of ENSO neutral?): 32.6F DJF; 27 in snow All much colder than normal. Most of the years produced near normal snowfall, with 2 of them (1960-61 and 2013-14) producing blockbuster seasons.