PhiEaglesfan712

Wait, I thought the Nor'easter was in mid-March 1993, not December 1992. I was 4-and-a-half, but I remember my sister being born (12/29/92) and then baptized (in January 93) first, before the huge snowstorm, which I think happened on 3/13/93 (when she was 2.5 months old). I do remember my mom telling me about a storm the night before my sister was born (12/28/92), but it missed us well to the south. I think NC got an ice storm, and the Delmarva area might have gotten snow.

We just had 2 nor'easters this past spring (April 11-12 and May 21-22).

Look on the bright side: At least we had more rain this October than last October. I still can't believe that we recorded 0 precipitation for an entire month.

But those storms prove that last winter wasn't a no-chance winter. We've had many of those in the last 15 years (like 11-12 or 22-23). Last winter was more like 20-21. The difference is the storm tracks aligned perfectly for NYC in 20-21, not so much last winter. But the tracks were still there. Also, 20-21 proved that NYC can still have good winters post 18-19. Or was that luck, and is NYC doomed to never have a great winter 20-21?

DC and Baltimore had some good snowstorms in January. That hasn't happened in a long time. Even Philly got a good storm in on 1/19 (otherwise we have a different Super Bowl winner because the Rams probably win that day). While December was wet, February was not. At least in my area. It really didn't turn wet until 3/5, and by that time, temps had turned above average and winter was pretty much over. But there was a good storm track on 2/20. It just went too far east, and places like Norfolk and Virginia Beach got a major snow event. I chalk up 2024-25 as just bad luck for NYC. I mean, you had major snow events in places like Baltimore, DC, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach. It's been a long time since that happened.

All I know is that when drought guy posts, I expect the exact opposite to happen in my area. Yes, he made this prediction on page 3 of thread on 9/19: 1. Being a neutral year, we are in for a real cold and snowy winter which will definitely help the groundwater tables. See lots of northeaster's and the potential freezing rain/sleet events early in December. (Yep, this winter is cooked. I expect a warm winter with very little snow.)

Baltimore getting 80 inches of snow in ~2 months (from December 5 to February 10) is crazy. Almost as crazy is how the snow season abruptly ended. They got only one-tenth of an inch more for the rest of the season, on 2/15. (March was well above average temperaturewise, the temps reached 90 by April 6.) Makes me wonder what the potential would have been if it had continued to snow deep into March, like in 1957-58.

PHL average winter temps 1985-86 and before: 34.1 1986-87 to 1996-97: 35.6 1997-98 to 2014-15: 35.9 2015-16 to present: 38.7

It's too early to tell if 2023-24 produced this 'new and larger temperature jump'. After all, the first year following the strong el nino (2024-25) produced the coldest winter in most of the East since 2014-15 (before the 2015-16 super el nino). And who knows, 2023-24 might be the precursor to another strong el nino (in 2026-27 or 2027-28), like 1982-83 was to 1986-88. (I'd argue the 1986-88 event caused the first warming because we still got below zero temps in PHL between the 1982-83 and 1986-88 el ninos, namely in 1983-84 and 1984-85... After the 1986-88 el nino, below zero temps in PHL were almost a thing of the past.)

A good, long blocking pattern in late November or December would be nice. We need the cold to be there in January and February, not May and June.

I think you meant 1979-80 for the record lowest season. 78-79 was a record cold and very snowy February. 79-80 checks out as a record low snow season in the Boston area.

JAS ONI (NOAA): -0.3 JAS RONI: -0.63

Of course, those mid-90s seasons (especially 92-93 and 93-94) were aided by the temporary cool down in climate due to Pinatubo in 1991.

Once the average seasonal snowfall drops below 4 inches (about the current average in Charlotte) in places like Baltimore and DC, then I know we've reached the point of no return. At that point, snowy winters might be a thing of the past. It might not happen with the 2001-30 averages, but it's certainly possible in the 2011-40 averages.

That is one that didn't really follow the early season la nina rule. We got the snowstorm on Dec 5, which would have normally meant a great snow year, but the season fell apart instead. The rest of the winter had very little snow, aside from the Feb 22 event, with January-April slightly above average temperature.

Yeah, 24-25 was, in terms of la nina, what 14-15 and 19-20 was for el nino. All are borderline cases, depending on threshold. At least with 14-15 and 19-20, you generally had a basewide warm neutral, maybe weak el nino (depending on what your threshold is, 0.4, 0.5, 3-trimonthlies, 5-trimonthlies, etc). With 24-25, you had a la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2. Heck, the 1+2 in 24-25 may have had a warmer anomoly than the warm neutral years of 14-15 and 19-20. 24-25 might be the hardest year to classify. Whether you consider it neutral or la nina, it really doesn't fit either in a traditional sense. No other year in history had a 3.4 and 1+2 as disjointed as 24-25.

12-13: ENSO neutral 13-14: ENSO neutral 14-15: warm neutral/weak el nino 15-16: super el nino 16-17: weak la nina 17-18: weak la nina 18-19: weak el nino 19-20: warm neutral/weak el nino 20-21: moderate la nina 21-22: moderate la nina 22-23: moderate la nina (but dissipating) 23-24: strong el nino 24-25: ENSO neutral I count 5 la nina years, 3 el nino years (2 strong ones), 2 borderline warm neutral/weak el nino years, and and 3 ENSO neutral years. If you want to make it 15, then you've got your 7 la nina years.

I'm not so sure. The PDO in 16-17 was essentially an anti-analog of 13-14. If anything, it may be a reason why it torched from November-February. The PDO is too far negative to be in transition. At best, we might have a 12-13 type deal. Maybe if it continues to rise through the spring, then we could call 26-27 a transition year, like 76-77 or 13-14.

With this being a -ENSO and strong -IOD, there is a much higher than normal potential for a very warm January. That's what happened the last 2 times we had that combination, and it continued into February. December is probably the best chance for snow and cold this winter, although 16-17 was saved by a snowstorm in mid-March. But it seems like the winters are ending earlier post-2020, and you can't count on a snowstorm anymore. Heck, snow seems hard to come by since the end of the mid-2010s el nino.

And don't forget about the 8 in 5 years between Isabel (in 2003) and Dean/Felix (in 2007). [We still need 2 more between now and next year to tie that one.] That's 20 Category 5 hurricanes since 2003, which is about one per year.

Hyperactive hurricane seasons (180+ ACE) by decade: 1890s (1) - 1893 1900s, 1910s (0) 1920s (1) - 1926 1930s (1) - 1933 1940s (0) 1950s (1, possibly 2) - 1950, 1955 (maybe) 1960s (1) - 1961 1970s, 1980s (0) 1990s (2) - 1995, 1998 2000s (2) - 2004, 2005 2010s (1) - 2017 2020s (1) - 2020 Arranged by gap 33 years - (1961-1995) 32 years - (1893-1926) 16 years - (1933-1950) 11 years - (2005-2017) 10 years - (1950-1961*) 6 years - (1926-1933) 5 years - (1998-2004) current gap (2020-present) is 4 years, likely to become 5 at the end of the season 2 years - (1995-1998; 2017-2020) 0 years - (2004-2005) * - gaps become 4 years (1950-1955) and 5 years (1955-1961) if 1955 is counted Arranged by 10 ACE 180-190 (2) - 2020 (180.3725), 1998 (181.8838) [1955 is 178.585] 190-200 (1) - 1961 (196.95) 200-210, 210-220 (0) 220-230 (5) - 2017 (224.8775), 1926 (225.7788), 2004 (226.94), 1950 (227.1413), 1995 (227.5513) 230-240 (2) - 1893 (231.0738), 1933 (235.785) 240-250 (1) - 2005 (247.65)

All of the cold and pretty much most of the snow was confined to month (January). December was really warm. Come to think of it, 2021-22 was a warmer, modern version of 1984-85.

Mud football games are fun. My sister played in one during her senior year of high school as a running back. The next door neighbor was a junior in high school, and the running back of the other team. No one was able to stop either of them that day. My sister's team ended up winning. Who won your game? (Oh, and I bet you if Drought Guy was around when Gloria was happening, he'd be talking about how a drought was around the corner...)

I'd say the unlucky pattern started after the 15-16 el nino. The only real KUs since then were the January 31/early February 2021 and late January 2022 ones, and even those didn't bullseye my area. It was a combination of things that caused it, but you could start to see the cracks forming as early as 11-12. 13-14 and 14-15 were the last real sustained winters. 17-18 was a good cold season, but you had two random record warm months, in October and February.

Today is the 40th anniversary of Hurricane Gloria: This was as bad as Sandy, maybe even worse.