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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    Update: Storm is out of the way. The football season has officially begun!
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, I can confirm, as there was a massive delay with the Battle at the Beach high school football games in Ocean City. All the games starting after 1 got moved back an hour.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    Looks like the storms today missed us. They went south, affecting the Battle at the Beach high school football games in Ocean City: https://x.com/Mtrible/status/2093371539525657029
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    Lots of la nina years on this list. 1955 and 2007 were developing strong la ninas; 2011, 1974, and 1989 were exiting strong la nina years; 1971 and 2021 were also moderate la nina years.
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    At the end of the day, the winter of 2025-26 was a warmer version of 2014-15. The 10+ departures in the West were much more widespread, and the cold in the East wasn't as strong or as long.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    Name changes are more common than you think. Just look at all the pro sports stadiums. You don't realize it, but their name changes hand often, and sometimes silently. As they say, in this country, if you pay enough...
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    In New Jersey, the high school football season now starts in late August. It has since 2018. I think that's why school now starts in late August, rather than after Labor Day.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    Jolene, Jolene, Jolene, Jolene... In honor of Dolly
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    Funny thing is that wouldn't be true because 13 years ago was 2013, which was a very quiet season. All storms that year were either TS or C1. All of the notable hurricanes came during the active seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012, which were 14-16 years ago.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    Now that everyone's convinced that the el nino won't peak as high, watch the 5C peak in February run verify.
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    Imagine if that purple, late-blooming one that peaks near 5C verifies.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    The March 1993 superstorm, 93-94, and 95-96 were the fruits of Pinatubo's temporary global cooling.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    I was in the spa on Friday night, and my sister asked me why the spa doesn't stay consistently hot. It was at that moment that my understanding of the el nino/la nina cycle truly clicked. My answer was that it requires an extra amount of energy to maintain that heat. The same way that it requires extra heat to maintain an el nino. It was at that point that I realized why an el nino doesn't last, and ENSO neutrals/la ninas are more natural, lasting states. Then, she said that at hotels (where spas are maintained at continuous heat), there is a warning that you should not stay more than 15 minutes. It was at that point that I realized that if the earth was in a continuous el nino state, it would not really be habitable. (Like you'd have to leave the continuous warm spa after 15 minutes, you'd have to leave continuous earth to cool off after a certain period of time.)
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm not sure if anyone pointed this out yet, but we're experiencing a very rapid upwelling of cold water in the western Pacific Ocean, which is literally pushing the warm Kelvin wave onto the South American continent. As a result, the warm water in the east is sinking deeper. This is why we are in for a strong la nina in 2027-28 or 2028-29 (depending on how quickly the current el nino dissipates) - like in 1998-2000, which immediately followed the 1997-98 el nino. As you can see, the strong la nina years of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (which correspond to the dark blue strips in 1998 and 1999) was the result of the last upwelling. Also, our last strong la nina was in 2010-11 (which corresponds to the dark blue strip in 2010). If we don't have a strong la nina following this el nino event, it will be the longest gap between strong la ninas since prior to the 1955-56 event.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    I finally got the IRI links to work:
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    That early part of September 1997 must have been record cold in the Northeast US. All I remember is that early September 2015 and early September 2023 were really hot.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    Same pattern as June and July: Very warm first half of the month, only to be offset by a cooler second half of the month. I wonder if this continues, and things turn warmer to begin September.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    The fact that 1999 was the driest summer, I will always believe that if Floyd never happened, we would have had a continuous, multi-year drought from about spring 1998 through fall 2002.
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    The super el nino years 1972 and 1982 appear in the wettest composite. 1957 is the only robust el nino that appears in the driest. Interesting to note that a lot of the driest years produced some very cold/snowy winters.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    The answer to this question will determine if there is a backlash, strong la nina or a carryover el nino in 2027-28. If it peaks early, then it will have a head start to a developing a strong la nina (just look at the transition to la nina in 1988). If it peaks in the climo window, we'll probably have a slower decay, and have a carryover el nino in 2027-28, before we go la nina in 2028-29.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    1988 was a hot summer, but came to an end in mid-August. The last 90-degree day at PHL was on 8/17. That one turned cold so fast, and produced one of the coldest Octobers of all time, even colder than 1976.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    Winter 2025-26 was like winter 2014-15. Record breaking warmth out west, and cold in the East. It's almost impossible to have a cold CONUS winter like 2009-10 and 2010-11 anymore. When there is historic cold on one side of the country, you can almost bet the other side is having widespread record warmth. There is an increase of +10 temperature departure months starting in late 2011/early 2012.
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    At least by this point, the cold signal was gone. (This was the case in 2015-16.) By the time you went into the fall runs, those regions were showing above average temperatures for DJF on almost all models. By the time you got to October and November in 2015 and 2023, it should have been apparent that December was going to torch. The cold signal still being there has to bring hope to those want cold and snow. I always keep coming back to the point that the last strong el nino that showed a cold signal this deep into the season produced the coldest CONUS winter in the 21st century.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    That composite almost looks like 2009-10 in North America. That was the one that produced record warmth in Western Canada, which had an effect on the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver.
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    Some years are missing, like 1995 and 2007. December 1994 and 2006 were very warm (actually the November-January period was near record warm), while February 1995 and 2007 were the outlier cold months.
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