PhiEaglesfan712

Not really, the MEI peaked at -1.14 in the offseason of 2012-13 and 2013-14. It does seem pretty odd, though, since the RONI and ONI both were in the -0.4 range during that time, and neither season produced a la nina on the MEI.

My drought's been over since March 5. As has been for the last 5 months, I was right again, and drought guy was wrong.

No, thank you. My area is fine, and hasn't been in a drought since about March 5. (I told you after the Eagles Parade, when I saw mud, that the drought was almost over. Lo and behold, three weeks later, we got the rain event that was the beginning of the end of the drought.) I don't want a hurricane. I'd be okay with some T-storm events (like 7/31, and that wasn't long ago), but a hurricane would be overboard, and probably put my area in a flooding situation.

The variance should be less than last year. We won't have a clear la nina in 3.4, and a clear el nino in 1+2. 2024-25 was one of the most unconventional ENSO seasons ever. I think we will have a much more conventional ENSO neutral across the board in 2025-26, akin to 2013-14.

I'm glad to inform you that the drought in my area ended around March 5. Although August has been dry, my area has experienced above precipitation for the previous 5 months (March-July).

Yeah, that one had a very sharp cutoff (like most of the storms that winter). I had to be more north/east for this. 16-17 was almost like 07-08. Yeah, there were some places north that had a good snow season, but south of a certain point, it absolutely sucked. The snowstorm in mid-March made the season toals respectable, otherwise it would have finished right around the 07-08 total.

Uh, the blizzard was in mid-March, not in February. That month of February 2017 was a torch, and there was very little snow, let alone a blizzard, lol. And even then, the 3/14/17 snowstorm was more of a thing NYC and north, places south of Philly got next to nothing.

I disagree about the classification between the two being 'basically negligable'. 2022 started out as a (continued) moderate la nina from 2020-21/2021-22, but dissipated as the season went on (by the end of the winter, we were at an ENSO neutral). We didn't really have a dissipating la nina in 2013-14 (the la nina event dissipated in spring 2012), just a textbook cool ENSO neutral.

That was the year when we started to see a shift to the warmer storm tracks. We weren't getting snow in southern places, like Baltimore or DC. 16-17 felt more like 07-08, 11-12, and 12-13 rather than the great 09-10/10-11/13-14/14-15.

I hope we get a good blocking pattern in November/December. The pattern that's in place early in a -ENSO/-PDO winter usually sets the tone for that winter. If we don't get a good blocking pattern early, the winter is toast.

Yeah, if it was early June, I would have entertained the thought of an active Atlantic hurricane season. But we're now in early August. If we were going to have an active hurricane season, we would have seen something by now. (Even last year we had Beryl.) Instead, we are at about 2.5 ACE. Yes, I can see a big storm like Hurricane Andrew hitting at some point in the season, but that will be an outlier on the season, just as Andrew was in 1992 (another year that was very active in the Pacific, not so much in the Atlantic). For the most part, the Pacific is going to be active, and the Atlantic will be rather quiet. We're close to halfway on the hurricane season. The tiger isn't going to change stripes at this point in the season. 155 ACE has very low probability, and would be like if the Rockies made the playoffs this year.

It could probably be that Nino 1+2 has been in an el nino state, even after the 2023-24 el nino ended. My guess that will stick at least through the next official el nino. If we get a strong or super el nino in the coming years, Nino 1+2 will really go off the charts (like in 82-83 and 97-98).

I do think a destructive storm like Hurricane Andrew is possible, but I feel like the general pattern this year is an active Pacific and a quieter Atlantic. This has a 1992 feel to it.

lol, 155 ACE has zero chance of happening. We would have to almost match 2005 the rest of the way to make that happen. We all know that's not going to happen. If anything, they need to adjust lower. We might have an active August (or maybe even one big storm), but the pattern isn't going to suddenly flip and make this August-October/November somewhere close to the most active ever.

I get the feeling there will be no in-between this winter. We'll know early on (in December, or even November) if this winter is going to be a cold and snow fest (like 13-14) or if it's going to be an absolute blowtorch with very little snow (like 11-12).

I'm hoping for a good early season blocking. At least the trickle down effects of that block will happen in January and February, a time when it can snow. A good late season blocking isn't going to save us. (2023 is a good example. Not a great early season block, but a very good late season one. By the time the cold pattern was in place from that block, it was May and June. The cold was impressive, as we didn't get that type of cold during that time of the year in nearly 40 years, but it isn't going to snow in June.)

One +0.4F change after a strong el nino may not seem like a big difference, but each one adds up. In the last 40 years, there has been a temperature jump following (1) the 86-88 el nino, (2) the 97-98 el nino, (3) the 15-16 el nino, and (4) the 23-24 el nino. If the temperature jumped +0.4F each time, we're talking about a +1.6F change over 40 years. That's big. We may even have another strong el nino in 26-27 or 27-28, which could create another temperature jump. If that happens, then that's 3 temperature jumps in about a dozen years.

Last cold winter month, yes. But there have been really cold months since JFM 2015, albeit in other seasons, like April 2018, November 2018, November 2019, and June 2023.

2013-14 and 2014-15 came after low ACE seasons. Low ACE season is pretty much locked unless we get a Hurricane Andrew, and even then, we'll probably still finish below average in ACE. (1992 finished with 76 ACE despite having Hurricane Andrew.) I feel like the hand has been dealt. The East Pacific is having a very active year, while the Atlantic has been very quiet. It's August now, and that's probably not going to suddenly shift gears at this point. (If the Atlantic was going to get active, we would have seen it by now. Even 2004 got started with Alex late in July. We're already past that, and this season has been completely blank.) The question now is if the Atlantic will get that big storm (like Andrew in 1992) or if we're going to get shut out (like in 2013).

At this point, we're going to need a Hurricane Andrew to even come close to 100 ACE. Absent of that, <70 ACE is pretty much a lock. The 2025 hurricane season has shown its hand. The difference between last year and this year is that the Pacific is very active. Also, at this point last year, we already had Hurricane Beryl. It feels like 2013 all over again. People just kept waiting for the season to turn active that year, and it never did.

The JRA-3Q dataset is not updated for June 2025 so the MEI V2 will be late this month.

Did the strong -IOD break up the +PDO? It's no surprise that winter torched because it was pretty much an anti-log of 2013-14.

My ranking of the winters since 2016-17 1. 2017-18: This is probably #1 on most lists. This was the only one that provided the cold and snow. A record warm February kept this from being colder than average. 2. 2020-21: February made this winter. Plus, this winter didn't have a uber warm month. 3. 2024-25: This one didn't have the snow, but it's the only one that had the consistent cold. Again, no uber warm month in this winter. 4. 2018-19: Not much snow in from late November to mid-February, but snow events in mid-November and late February/early March kept the season's snow totals respectable. Plus, like 2020-21 and 2024-25, no uber warm month. 5. 2021-22: Like 2020-21, was a one-month winter (January). However, we had a near record warm December, and winter was pretty much done when January was finished. 6. 2016-17: March kept this winter from being a 2019-20, 2022-23, or 2023-24 type winter. November-February torched with very little snow. 7. 2023-24: Snow events from mid-January to mid-February kept this from being at the very bottom. This winter featured a lot of record warmth, especially in December and March. 8 & 9 (tie). 2019-20 and 2022-23: This is as bad as you can get. There wasn't much of a winter.

I'd say starting with the 16-17 winter. The last real ubiquitous snowstorm was the January 22-23, 2016 event. Even when we had that great 17-18 winter, the storms were capped at 8 inches at PHL and 10 inches at NYC. The only one since the 2016 snowstorm that went over those thresholds in NYC is the late January/early February 2021 snowstorm, and even that one didn't do well in coastal areas. (The January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm did well in the coastal areas, not so much west of 95.) Something happened after the super el nino that's capping the potential for a ubiquitous snowstorm.

Believe it or not, 1983 is already below average (compared to 1981-2010 and 1991-2020). 1999 is slightly above average on 1991-2020 (it will be close on whether it stays above 2001-2030).