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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    Jan 2004 was very cold as well. At least where I live, it rivals some of the cold Januarys of the 1980s (1982, 1984, 1985).
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think February will be near normal temperaturewise, at least to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast (the Southeast might torch). The first 10-15 days will give good snow to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. I think March is the month when the mid-Atlantic and Northeast will have the +5 torch.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    All I know is that 2001-02 was way worse than this winter. That was a dry torch that never really had a chance, which is why we got a drought emergency that went on for months on end. At least this winter is cold, and there is hope for snow. Heck, we even got a normal precip departure in December.
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think a hybrid of Feb 2018/Feb 2019 is what we're probably going to get. Feb 2019 (though not a la nina year) was even more extreme with the heat being contained to the south. I think we get something like this temperaturewise (with a more active storm track like Feb 2018):
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think a torch in the SE is possible for February, but I don't see it in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast. In fact, I think the first 10-15 days of the month will be favorable for snow in these areas. The February monthly temp departure will be close to normal in these areas, and maybe below in some areas of northern Vermont, NH, and Maine. I think it turns warmer for these areas during the 2nd half of February, leading into the inevitable torch during March/first part of April.
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    This looks realistic. PHL can't seem to get over the 8-in hump since the Jan. 2016 snowstorm. Also, this looks good if the Eagles have a game that weekend. We could just Saquon in the snow.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    I only bailed on it because the MEI increased in AS/SO (from -0.7 to -0.5). If that hadn't happened, I would have not bailed on the la nina, but there was evidence that the la nina was potentially coming to an end. Speaking of the MEI, it came in at -0.9 for ND, the lowest so far this season.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, I'd like to see more Februarys like this or 2015. Having winter in most recent years (since 2015-16) be basically over by the Super Bowl, or sometimes not even starting at all (like 2019-20 and 2022-23), have become very tiring.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    I feel like this is going to come down to the wire, like the summer of 2023, which held off by one-tenth of a degree to officially finish with the first below average summer since 2014 (and breaking the 8-year streak of above average summers) before torching the first week of September. I feel like February will be close to average, and we're going to get a torch during the first week of March.
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    05-06 probably belongs there as well. That one was late-peaking as well (like 08-09), and unlike 16-17 (which was early-peaking and had returned to ENSO neutral by this point in the season).
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    The problem with 2008-09 is that I don't see a flip to a strong el nino next year. I think 2021-22, which remained a la nina, looks like the better analog.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    Why? Is it because there is no record warmth to be found this winter?
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think the 2nd half of Jan and 1st half of Feb are going to be more active, in terms of precipitation. I get a feeling one of these periods will be above normal temperatures and the other below normal temperatures. The BN portion will give us the snowy period, and the AN portion the rainy. The next 7-10 days following the 1/6 snowstorm will be cold and dry.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    The NOAA ONI for OND is -0.4; the SON ONI has been revised from -0.2 to -0.3 The OND RONI comes in at -0.92 Also, December PDO comes in at -2.08, a +1.06 jump from November's -3.14
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    13-14 was another one, and that was an ENSO neutral season.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    Kenny Pickett has always been an average to below average quarterback: https://x.com/NoFlagsFilm/status/1874531661259641030
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm hoping the very warm pattern starts around mid-month, rather than in February. At least if the warm pattern starts in mid-January, there is still time to get a cold pattern on the back end of winter. If the warm pattern starts in February, then the winter is basically cooked.
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    Amazing how immediately after those storms, the snow just shut off. We got a smaller event here on 2/26/2010, but places south, like Baltimore and Wash DC, got shut out on that one. Things turned warmer in March, and by the first week of April, it felt like summer.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    I hope you mean 2021-22 and 2018-19, and not 2022-23 and 2019-20. At least the former two, while not the best, had some snow. The latter two had less than one inch of snow, and we don't need another one of that.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    Much has been made about the 9 straight above average winters, but the last real cold summer was in 2009. I know 2014 and 2023 were technically below average, but even those were by a few tenths of a degree. Not to mention, 2023 only finished below average because of the coldest June since 1985. Replace June with September, and JAS 2023 finishes above the JJA average. So, 2014 is the only year in the last 14 that didn't have a 3-month period that finished above the summer average, and that was by 0.2 degree.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    Our last region-wide warning event was the January 2016 snowstorm, correct? I know it we didn't get it in 2021 (the coast was outside of the warning zone) or 2022 (north and west of PHL was outside of the warning zone).
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    Better to have the regression during the 2nd half of January than in February. Because if the pattern changes in February, many times it never really comes back. 1977, 2010, and 2011 are all good examples.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    This is actually an improvement from some of the things this user posted during the fall. As recently as November 16, this user was posting this: Record warmth looks likely to start December
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm not surprised. I see January 17-31 being warmer than average and February 1-14 colder.
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