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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, a drought was well overdue. Prior to the drought beginning in September 2024, it had been over 20 years since we had one (the previous one ended in fall 2002).
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    Get ready for 30C minimums in November and December.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    We've pretty much, more or less, stopped gaining daylight at this point. The sunrises and sunsets are just shifting a little bit later each day, but we aren't really gaining or losing daylight. At least not enough for anyone to really notice. We are in the period of maximum daylight.
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think 95-96 was the last time we had a solid +PDO la nina. Oddly enough, it followed the -PDO el nino in 94-95. I wonder what caused the inverse correlation of those years. Mind you this was at the end of a 20+ year +PDO period (the transition from +PDO to -PDO took place in between the super el nino and strong la nina in 1998). Maybe we do get something similar this time around, a -PDO el nino in 26-27, followed by a +PDO la nina in 27-28. Then, one final -PDO event, before the transition to +PDO.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    I really got lucky this weekend, with the rain and storms on Thursday and last night. Fridaty and Saturday were perfect, and I got late night swims in.
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    If the PDO doesn't turn positive, I think the el nino stays below +2C, and 94-95 is our best analog. PDO should flip if we get above +2C, and definitely if it's above +2.5C. There has never been a +2.5C el nino that had a -PDO. Definitely not the best winter, but we could get something out of one month (most likely February).
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    If we're having an el nino that's supposedly going off the charts, then I don't expect the PDO to repeat the pattern of the last 2 years. If a record-breaking el nino can't flip the PDO, then it's time to start getting concerned that the -PDO is going to be permanent. Quite frankly, if a record-breaking el nino doesn't break the -PDO, I don't know what will.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    KOQN Airport's max and min needs to be fixed. 19 should be the max value, and 9 the min.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    The severe thunderstorm threat is over, correct?
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    Same here. I'm home alone, and hopefully the thunderstorms are out of the way before sunset, so I can go on a late night swim. Tomorrow is perfect weather. Can cut the grass and go for a late night swim home alone.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    It's interesting that the QBO has swung wildly every year this decade: 2020-21: solid +QBO 2021-22: solid -QBO 2022-23: solid +QBO 2023-24: solid -QBO 2024-25: solid +QBO 2025-26: solid -QBO 2026-27: solid +QBO?
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    Okay, I guess this means it will correct itself in the other direction next year, and 2027 will have a cooling that rival years like 1998 and 2010.
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    To be fair, many thought it would be a cooler June, due to this being a pre-strong nino summer. Such Junes/summers are notorious for being cooler, like 1972, 1982, 1997, 2009, and 2023. The only real exceptions to this rule were 1991 and 2015, and both were preceded by a warm neutral ENSO winter. That wasn't the case this year.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    And if we wanted go back one more year, I'm sure Feb 2015 had a +10 departure somewhere in the West. I feel like 2011-12 was the tipping point. I just checked the departures, and there were places in North Dakota that maintained the +10 departure for 4 months straight, from December 2011 to March 2012.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    The correlation didn't work for December 2021. That was a -ENSO/-QBO, and that December was an absolute blowtorch.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    The 3 el ninos in the 82-92 period were all robust, though. The 88-89 la nina happened after the 2nd event. That's the only time really that robust el ninos were so close to each other. It will be interesting to see, after this el nino event, if the same pattern follows, and get such a strong la nina.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    72-73 was followed by a strong la nina (part of a triple la nina), and preceded by a double la nina: 1970-71 - moderate la nina 1971-72 - weak la nina 1972-73 - super el nino 1973-74 - strong la nina 1974-75 - weak la nina 1975-76 - strong la nina
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    72-73 is the only super el nino that followed a double la nina. From the strong group, you have 09-10 following a double la nina, with 57-58 and 23-24 following a triple la nina. Of course, 72-73, 86-88, 97-98, and 09-10 were all followed by strong la ninas, with 72-73 and 97-98 followed by a triple la nina, and 09-10 followed by a double la nina. Even 15-16 was followed up by a double dip la nina, although both years were weak la ninas.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, almost all el ninos do that, with the obvious exception of 1986-88 (which peaked in between seasons, in the summer of 87). However, the earlier the peak/fall off, the more likely for a strong la nina the following year. Just look at 1973, and the aforementioned 1988, for example. Those years got very close to, or even breached, -2.0C.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    We're definitely overdue a strong la nina. The last time we had 2 robust el ninos back-to-back was the series that began with the 82-83 super el nino (when we had 3 in a decade). After the 2nd el nino (86-88) followed a strong la nina (88-89). I have a feeling that we're going to have a strong la nina after this strong/super el nino event. 82-83: super el nino => 23-24: strong el nino 83-86: -ENSO event => 24-26: -ENSO event 86-88: strong el nino => 26-27 (or 26-28): robust el nino 88-89: strong la nina => 27-28 (or 28-29): strong la nina???
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    I saw this Early 2026-2027 Snowfall Insight on LinkedIn:
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    1991 is the only one of the high-end el nino events that really compares. There was a heat wave at the end of May, and that really set the tone for the entire summer. 2015, to a lesser extent, but we didn't have the warmth in June, but rather in the back half of the summer into September. Both of those years had a borderline warm neutral/weak el nino leading up to it. We didn't have that in the lead up to this year. I expected this summer to be a textbook pre-nino summer that was cooler than recent summers, like 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023. If we can't get even get a cool summer in this setting, I wonder what it will take to get one. (Short of a major volcanic eruption, like Pinatubo in 1991, which caused 1992 to be notably colder, I probably don't see it happening any time soon, if not ever.)
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    Not really, there is something called seasonal lag, which is why the hottest days on most years are deep into July, sometimes in early August. Besides, the days have noticeably stopped getting longer, especially on the morning side. At night, it is still getting light later. By around June 13-14, most places in this area will have seen their max daylight (it might still be technically getting longer by a second or two, but that's junk change when you have 15 hours of daylight), and that will go on until about June 26-27.
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    May 2026 PDO: -1.76 MAM 2026 ONI: +0.5 MAM 2026 RONI: -0.1 Eric Webb finally updated his page: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html He considers 2025-26 to be a weak la nina, and 2024-25 to be a 'maybe weak la nina' (borderline cold neutral/weak la nina), and lowered the strength of 2011-12, 2021-22, and 2022-23 to weak la nina (had previously been considered moderate), and upgraded 1892-93 to a strong la nina.
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