PhiEaglesfan712

About 2-3 weeks from now, we'll have the earliest sunrise, and we stay constant daylight for about a few weeks before starting the downward trajectory in late June. As we roll further into July, it becomes more noticeable.

It was a strong el nino, so you really can't prevent the warm-ups in between. Although, we did get consistent cold and snowstorms in February. (But the winter ended abruptly, as the snow stopped in Baltimore and DC in mid-February, and north of Baltimore by the beginning of March.) However, 2009-10 is the absolute best case for a strong el nino. It's like the modern day 1957-58 (that one also had warm-ups in between storms). Everyone got a good winter, with the exception of the PNW (the Vancouver Olympics were affected by record warmth and a lack of snow) and maybe the Midwest (ask @michsnowfreak, strong el ninos are never good there).

I keep finding it odd that 2009-10, as a strong el nino, ended up as the coldest CONUS winter of this era. Pretty much every other strong el nino since 1972-73 (with the exception of 1991-92, which was affected by Pinatubo) produced a baseline jump in temperature. Even 1982-83, which had El Chichon. So what caused 2009-10 to be such a cold winter CONUS? There had to be some underlying reason here (like was there a volcano in late 2008/2009?) Otherwise, it should have been a warm CONUS winter at the very least, and possibly produced a baseline jump like the other strong el ninos.

What's impressive about the 2014 and 2015 cold outbreaks is that they didn't really get going until after the new year, and they went on for 2-3 months, not really letting up until the end of March.

11-20 November 2019 (T15 coldest with 3 other years) 21-30 April 2018 (29th coldest) November 2018 (25th coldest famous for the mid-month snow event) June 2023 just missed out at T31 coldest

The fact that we're having a 2nd nor'easter since April 11 makes me more confident that the WPAC jet is changing and that a 2013-14 winter is coming in 2025-26. We have all the other pieces in place. If the WPAC jet cooperates, a cold and snowy winter is almost certain in the Eastern US. [Imagine if the April 11-12 and this event had happened in January/February.]

2018-19 was a nearly identical winter to 2016-17. Both were C to C- winters, with a lot of nickel-and-dimers, but no real snowstorm. Both are notable for having their most notable storm outside of the DJF period (18-19 in mid-November, and 16-17 in mid-March). 18-19 did have its moments of cold (November and March were well below average, and DJF was only about +1, +2 above average), while 16-17 was a blowtorch pretty much all winter (with the exception of March).

Most recent event by ENSO state Strong el nino: 2023-24 (super el nino: 2015-16) Moderate el nino: 2002-03 Weak el nino: 2018-19 (possibly continued into 2019-20?) ENSO neutral: 2024-25 (event currently in progress) Weak la nina: 2016-18 Moderate la nina: 2020-23 Strong la nina: 2010-11

In a warming climate, I think a 2009-10 type year in the future is going to be near impossible. We're never going to get a strong el nino produce such a cold winter in the CONUS. Just look at 2015-16 and 2023-24, which were record breaking warm winters in the CONUS. If we are to get a cold winter in the CONUS in the future, it will almost certainly be a la nina year, and most likely a strong one (like 2007-08 or 2010-11).

I'm not really surprised about 2013-14, as that was a very warm winter out west (same with 2014-15). 2010-11 was the one that surprised me. I thought it would make it, especially as a strong la nina year, and not really having the extreme warmth out west of a 13-14 or 14-15. 2009-10 making the list is more impressive to me, considering that was a strong el nino. Usually, strong el ninos are warm CONUS, as you can see with 2015-16 and 2023-24 taking the #1 and #2 spots. Regarding 1981-82, the bulk of the snow and cold were in January and that April event. February and March were rather quiet.

1976-77 was dry, but one that turned very warm during the spring. 1978-79 was a very wet winter, but that followed a very dry fall. 1979-80 and 1980-81 were very dry winters. 79-80, I think, is the least snowy winter in Boston.

We had that event with Pinatubo, but its effect was minimized by a strong el nino in 1991-92. If we had a strong la nina that year, like 2007-08, we would have had a -0.7, -0.8 cooling event.

Now, here is the cold winters of the 1970s (1976-77, 1977-78, and 1978-79). Notice that, unlike 2013-14 and 2014-15, we don't have a warm west coast:

A reminder, as cold as the winter of 2013-14 and 2014-15 was in the Eastern US, some areas in the West Coast, particularly California, recorded its two warmest winters during that time:

Not really, it was warm through most of the country. Only the Pacific coast saw below average temperatures, and it wasn't by much:

The thing about the -10, -15 temperature departures in the Eastern US in February 2015 is that it was balanced out by similar positive temperature departures in the Western US:

It was only really 2010 to about 2015/16. After the January 2016 storm, those tracks pretty much stopped. And even then, we had a 2-year period with record low snow (namely 2011-12 and 2012-13) in the middle of all this. So, it was really only about 4 or 5 seasons that really skew the average.

Yeah, I don't recall any blizzards in 16-17. That one was a very low snowfall season, especially south of Philly. If I remember correctly, places like Baltimore and DC got like 3 inches of snow, putting it on par with low snowfall years like 11-12 and 12-13.

Reminded me a lot of 6/16/2023 (another Friday): Remind me next time the 16th of a month falls of a Friday and there's a chance for rain in the forecast, to bring my own lunch to work.

2013-14 and 2014-15 called and says this isn't true. Those years show that we can get good winters in a +1.5C world, even if it is fewer and further between.

The sun is finally out for the first time since I've returned home.

The further south, it is more noticeable earlier. For example, Charlotte hasn't seen a 10-inch snow season since 2003-04, or even an above average snow season since 2013-14.

If this happens, then I think we'll know for sure if the low snow cycle since the post-mid 2010's el nino is here to stay. We'd be heading into a similar pattern as 13-14, 14-15, and 15-16, years which set multiple cold and/or snowstorm records. If we don't get any notable cold and/or snowstorm during such a regime, then it's safe to say that we've reached a point of no return. At that point, we'd have over a decade of evidence, as well as a favorable pattern, which resulted in low snow.

lol at this one getting unpinned before the 2023-24 thread. 2011 was a record wet August and September and 2013 was a record wet summer. Plus, that summer pretty much ended in late July.