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Found 25 results

  1. My latest snowfall map and Cape Cod could likely gust past 80mph tomorrow
  2. My latest snowfall map and Cape Cod could likely gust past 80mph tomorrow
  3. A major nor'easter/blizzard is imminent. Blizzard of 2017 is on its way. The northern piece of energy has made a US landfall over NW US at 18z yesterday afternoon or evening and this is the energy that we have been waiting for a sampling of and now that we got models adjusted stronger with the southern vort max and northern vort max. Now there are three jet streams involved. The northern jet stream (AKA Arctic jet stream), southern stream (Pacific Jet) and the sub-tropical jet which situates over the gulf of Mexico, providing the system with a GOM low pressure center and moisture. Ok lets get down to the gist of the models. Models are somewhat different still in their handling of QPF, and storm track as well as intensity and they differ on degree of phasing between all three jet streams. The models have trended stronger with the pacific jet stream energy disturbance over the northern Plains now. this swings southeastward, and depending upon how far south it gets will help determine which model is correct as well as which storm track is correct. On water vapor imagery, one can see a distinct area of vorticity spinning in the atmosphere, this is our southern stream (Pacific jet ) disturbance. With its own moisture source from the Pacific and the Rocky Mountains not doing much to stop the moisture from entraining into the Northern PLains is dumping a good to decent amount of snowfall over the northern Plains towards Detroit, MI. this energy is being forced to the southeast by a large arctic jet gyre or upper level low pressure system diving southward into the Great Lakes tomorrow morning. This trough carries our southern stream disturbance up the east Coast combining with the GULF OF MEXICO energy and low pressure center combined to bring a singular coastal low pressure center that will be rapidly deepening as it head north-northeastward up the East Coast. This earlier phase now expected to happen by most guidance models, is actually allowing the system to track more offshore rather than up the NYC harbor. Benchmark track or Cape Cod track is the final question that needs to be answered. I am going with a forecast mix of the GFS/EURO/NAM models. Using the NAM for QPF output based upon the GFS progressiveness bias in these circumstances in which the storm is allowed to slow down due to the phasing of jets in which the large upper level low phases into the southern stream disturbance and slows it down before departing. I think the low will move from the benchmark to about just east of ACK and CHH producing a mix of rain/snow for coastal Cape Cod and Islands therefore I have Nantucket in the 0-4" range and Harwich to Bourne in the 8-12" range, Chatham will likely see less with 4-8" of snow. the GFS produces a ton of moisture but it falls over the ocean, this is bound to move over land, but where will help determine who gets how much, for now I will leave the 18-24" isolated 30" amounts in banding in the position it is in now. Temperatures tonight will be in the low teens once again. Tomorrow afternoon highs will be near 30F and lows will be near 20F, I don't see how a low 40s ocean warms an arctic air mass with a northerly component to the wind field over Cape Cod, but regardless my forecast carries a mix over Cape Cod therefore only about 8-12" will fall before the changeover. Thunder snows and intense snowfall rates will be likely before the changeover occurs if it does at all. the GFS is all snow except for about a changeover briefly of about .2" of QPF as rain. That shouldn't matter much. the other aspect to this storm is the wind damage and blizzard conditions. I think blizzard conditions are likely even for Cape Cod and the NWS will likely issue a blizzard warning for us instead of a winter storm warning. Hurricane force winds are likely for Cape Cod, Cape Ann and Nantucket and all along the NH and Maine immediate coastline. Also Downeast ME sees only a few inches given that the low tracks west of them bringing in warm air off the ocean from the southeast. Thank you
  4. 12z NAM rolling into the station, not much use at this stage however, but fun to look at

  5. Who wants to go on a 9 hour road trip to visit my grandmother and watch a historical potential blizzard impact the BUF region? I will pay for the trip, I just need someone who wants to drive a car and myself to the city of Buffalo where we can take video and witness the rare power of mother nature. Any takers
  6. Thought it would be good to keep the obs thread decluttered - post your photos, videos, etc here.
  7. I created a website where you can save radar images of snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, or hail. http://geocities.ws/radarchive
  8. Hurricane force winds, blizzard conditions, epic weather that only lasted 2-3 hours across the Cape and Islands poured fear into the residents minds that the end of the world was indeed today. The horror stories of my sister being caught in a movie theater with no power, my brother being caught in a microburst where the winds were unmeasurable, my dad caught in a wind storm that brought every tree you could think of into the road he was driving along, then of course my epic two plus hour bus ride from Bishop Stang in No. Dartmouth, MA where the weather was pedestrian during the early afternoon, soon began to turn to the more wilder side as the rain turned to sleet just as I was embarking on the worst afternoon of my life. Moments upon leaving Stang, the sleet turned to a wind driven snowfall where it started accumulating rapidly the further east I went. Traffic along route 25 in Wareham and then route 3 along the Canal went towards a standstill traffic wise as the first sign of snow snarled up traffic badly. My dad and siblings whoever was with him trying to pick me up at the bus stop was amazed at all the trees that fell down into the roads. Luckily I didn't face the microburst as I was behind the surface low and tropopause fold, and now I am waiting to witness those winds again, maybe in a hurricane, but an extratropical low will be just fine as well.
  9. I created a website where you can save radar images of snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, or hail. http://geocities.ws/radarchive
  10. All continues to be quiet on the western front.....as expected so far...Good luck to everyone this winter!
  11. Please use this thread for obs for the upcoming storm....Thanks!
  12. I wanted to create a thread that could compare the two monster blizzards that have struck Cape Cod in the last ten years. From 2005 to 2015 winters in these two years has brought Cape Cod travel to its knees. I remember both of them vividly. Both winter storms appeared in the 7-10 day range while losing them between days 3-7 while bringing them back within 48 hours. Models have poorly figured into these two beasts final accumulation totals. Below are attached two photos, both of the two blizzards at their most intense moments. While the January 2015 blizzard is much more matured at its most intense pressure moment, the January 2005 Blizzard developed an eye like feature as well at this moment depicted in the image below. While the two blizzards developed differently, the results were very much similar. They both passed over the 40n/70w benchmark and they at their most intense sub 980mb at that time. Winds were both fierce in the two blizzards with gusts over 78mph in the 2015 blizzard while gusts over ACK were 86mph in the 2005 Blizzard. The 2015 blizzard dove much further southeast into a position over the Outer Banks at H5 while the 2005 Blizzard dove as far south as Chicago, IL. One was more amped than the other, but not by much. The 2005 Blizzard had a much stronger deformation band and stronger end of the storm mode. Both storms had a duration of 24 hours, while the NAO remained positive in both events. The PNA was positive in both events, while the AO was negative providing the very cold air in both events. Temperatures failed to reach 32F in both events as storms that pass over the benchmark producing their own cold air mass normally do not warm the surface layer over the Cape and Islands unless you live on the island of Nantucket, MA. The Blizzard of 2005 brought more snow to ACK than the 2015 Blizzard, likely due to the presence of a strong warm front in the vicinity of ACK. Models poorly handled the westward progression of both systems as local network meteorologists forecasted a changeover to rain for areas east of Hyannis, the NWS did a better job with the 2005 Blizzard forecasts while they pooped on the Cape Cod forecasts for the Blizzard of 2015. With their initial amounts forecasted for the 2015 blizzard was 4-6" at CHH, we ended up with 30" of snow. The Blizzard of 2005 produced more snowfall at Harwich, MA then the 2015 Blizzard, but they both belong on my wall of fame for the strongest winter storms ever to hit Cape Cod, MA, especially for the Outer Cape Cod. I will have more on my personal experiences later on in the replies.
  13. I have written a piece on what I currently see occurring with the weather patterns and how they will transition into winter. The forecast needs some slight tweaks here and there, but overall I tried to keep it as simple as I could so that people could understand it. http://weather.st/blog/winter-of-2015-2016-whats-the-verdict/ Now I realize there are quite a few people out there who will scream and throw eggs in my general direction for even putting this up, but be rest assured it is not a panic cry, or a hype job. And for those who are going to ask, "Where did you get this data from?" I took the time to mention in the article where the sources were coming from, and that analogs plus climatology had quite a bit to do with formation of the projection, not to mention trends over the past few years in storm tracks. Thanks! Please post your own forecasts as well here, I would love to see them!
  14. Since I failed miserably in the First Freeze Contest, I need redemption. All you have to do is copy and fill in the form below, and I will keep track of predictions and participants. Guess to the nearest tenth of an inch, as in 25.2". Winter 2014-2015 Total Snowfall- BWI: IAD: DCA: RIC: Tiebreaker- DCA Greatest 24hr Snowfall: I wanted to do something interesting for the tiebreaker, so I decided it would be to guess DCA's greatest 24hr snowfall this season. Please enter by Dec. 1st. *This contest is not for DJF. It is for NDJFMA. It's not really a winter prediction, but more like a snow season prediction.
  15. I would like to know where I can find an archive of GFS Extended Range MOS where I can simply type in the station ID ("KITH") and select a certain date and time.
  16. Where can I find a map or table that display's each US state's highest 24 hour rainfall total?
  17. Hello. I am currently a junior at Cornell University. I will be in the CICS Program at the University of Maryland this summer. It is a program where undergraduate students conduct research with a NOAA EMployee or College Professor. I would like to stay with other students who are also in the CICS program. Are any of you interested in this program this summer? If not, do you know anybody who is interested?
  18. EDIT: Have arrived in Davis, West Virginia - Tucker County. Blizzard warning has been issued. Snow should start on Monday afternoon. ==== Do any of you have suggestions for the absolute best areas for up-slope snow in West Virginia? I am not familiar with the area - at all. Looking for thoughts and suggestions. Thanks!
  19. Guidance has come into agreement tonight with the evolution of an impressive leeside upper low over the Plains on Monday with an associated potentially sub 995 hPa surface low with a now apparently favorable track for a Southern Plains/Ozarks (particularly OK as of now) winter event. This may also trigger strong convection along the Gulf Coast of Dixie Alley possibly moving north to an extent depending on the movement/position of the warm front.
  20. Decided I would create a thread specific to this considering the magnitude of this storm. Right now, I'm definitely thinking at least a high 3, possibly a 4 given the widespread 20-30+" totals, similar to Jan. 2005 and Feb. 1978. While the totals were not as extensive west of the NYC metro (NYC/N NJ still got into 10-20" totals thanks to that intense band that swept through last night), the SNE ones appear more impressive in aerial coverage than those two storms possibly, it was really a crush job for almost the entire region. Long Island totals should also magnify it. In large portions of CT, this is likely a solid second to 1888 (although there might be some competition with Jan 2011 in some areas).
  21. Significant winter storm expected to develop on saturday in se CO and move ne to the Northern Great Lakes area on monday. Still some timing/strength differences but most models are in agreement with the track of the storm with heavy snow & wind for parts of Nebraska ne to n Wisconsin.
  22. It's that time...the 35th anniversary of the January 25-27, 1978 blizzard. Links to some NWS write ups: CLE: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cle/wx_events/Blizzard78/blizzard/blizzard78.html DTX: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/stories/blizzard1978.php IND: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=blizzardof78 IWX: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/program_areas/events/historical/blizzardof1978/index.php Reanalysis images.
  23. Global guidance continues to suggest a low amplitude phase along the west coast and a deepening trough ejecting into the plains sometime on the 28th as some sort of Colorado Low taking the classic track from CO then curving NE into the northern plains. Teleconnections are weak on this, but it does seem probable a storm will emerge the Rockies...and the GOM will be wide open with significant moist fluxes. All global guidance also suggests significant room for growth in the height field...so it doesn't seem probable anything ejecting will be squashed by the northern stream. Big differences come in terms of latitude of the ejecting trough. ECMWF would eject the upper lead anomaly near the Panhandles of TX/OK while CMC/GFS/UKMET suggest a northern CO ejection. Makes a rather huge difference both in terms of rapid intensification, GOM feed (farther S would suggest greater moisture transport), how fast the cyclone occludes, etc. Resultant differences equate to a historic storm across southern MN (12z ECMWF) to a significant storm across portions of N MN and Nodak (0z CMC), 0z GFS somewhere in the middle.
  24. 12Z Euro gives us a redeveloping low off of the coast just in time for the cold air!