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I'm sure a few of us have been watching a disturbance on the models the past week or so, which has been pretty cluttered with differences in the strength and location of shortwaves, and any phasing as we move into the weekend. Over the past 12-18 hours, the data seems to have started to trend toward a possible impactful event across Iowa, and western Illinois, including the potential advisory, or even warning criteria snow events in spots Saturday night into Sunday. Right now, the GFS, Bamms, RPM are hinting at warning level snows possible in a few stripes, in Iowa, and across the Ohio River, with advisory level snows possible for the QC metro and areas nearby. The latest 12z NAM seems to be trending in that direction as well. The shortwave in question is just now entering the Pacific Northwest currently, so hopefully we will have a much better idea, on if this system will be as wet as possibly being indicated by the GFS and other Hi-res guidance by this afternoon's 12z & tonights 00z runs. Feel free to chime in with your thoughts and opinions. Personally, it would be a nice birthday surprise for me, but I know others are all aboard the spring train! I kinda am, myself, but I do like a fresh coat of white! Lol
Ok, remember the last few posts have been about the past, well today's blog is about the future. IN the next 8-10 days periods of cold and rain are possible with a few mix events, but the main event looks to be in the Saturday/Sunday timeframe for New England storm system. Questions remain, but the gist of the future is that a potential coastal storm is looming. Currently models are not far enough south with the low, so it appears it will be a rain event, but with a Greenland block and PNA ridging, cold air looks strong and should push the upper level low to the southwest over time on the model forecasts. We will have to continue to monitor future runs. For now, potential exists for a snowstorm in New England.
SO the models are showing frigid air entering the northern Plains sometime in the next ten days and that cold air filters into the eastern US by day 13-16, which is the 27th and beyond of October. We could be seeing a change to much colder air eventually as winter gets closer. Most of our storms this winter will be from the Oh Valley to the Mid Atlantic coastal storm tracks, signifying that miller Bs and not Miller As will be the normalcy this winter.