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Showing results for tags 'rain/snow'.
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This post is at the seeming urging of multiple models this weekend offering a period of snow to the NYC subforum. Presuming it occurs, it could begin late Thursday the 18th, or it could linger into early Saturday the 20th. The coldest air of the season so far in NYC, may follow on gusty northwest winds next weekend, the 20th-21st. There doesn't seem to be anything definitive per this Jan 14th issuance, except that a period of snow is expected for at least a portion of NYC subforum on Friday with below normal temps. It's a strong positive tilt trough that approaches from the Great Lakes-Ohio Valley late this coming week. Attached the 12z/14 GEFS 500 MB mean left panel and 500 MB ensemble membership right panel. The NWS Sunday 'day' shift ensemble chance of 1/4" or greater snow-ice is attached as well as the 12z/14 EPS 24 hour positive snow accumulation ensembles ending around midnight Friday night. The 18z/14 GEFS was lighter for the same period so I extended the 24 hour positive snow depth ending time to sunrise Saturday whereas the CMCE was faster with the snow so I ended it 00z/20. Overall this Dec-Jan winter, it is my impression the GEFS tends to be conservative forecasting snow, the CMCE more liberal with more abundant qpf as well. I may have to add rain in the tags for the coasts as we draw closer to the proposed thread day... for now the colder solution was favored but uncertainty exists. Title addition 1/17/24 503AM: Event OBS. Tags: added rain/snow mix.
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Ok, remember the last few posts have been about the past, well today's blog is about the future. IN the next 8-10 days periods of cold and rain are possible with a few mix events, but the main event looks to be in the Saturday/Sunday timeframe for New England storm system. Questions remain, but the gist of the future is that a potential coastal storm is looming. Currently models are not far enough south with the low, so it appears it will be a rain event, but with a Greenland block and PNA ridging, cold air looks strong and should push the upper level low to the southwest over time on the model forecasts. We will have to continue to monitor future runs. For now, potential exists for a snowstorm in New England. -
SO the models are showing frigid air entering the northern Plains sometime in the next ten days and that cold air filters into the eastern US by day 13-16, which is the 27th and beyond of October. We could be seeing a change to much colder air eventually as winter gets closer. Most of our storms this winter will be from the Oh Valley to the Mid Atlantic coastal storm tracks, signifying that miller Bs and not Miller As will be the normalcy this winter.
