PhiEaglesfan712

What day does the parade take place if all these storms pan out?

I'm pretty sure we all scored big during the second half of February 2015. I've never seen the bottom fall out of the thermometer like this: 2015-02-14 32 18 25.0 -10.6 40 0 0.04 1.3 0 2015-02-15 21 9 15.0 -20.8 50 0 T T 1 2015-02-16 17 3 10.0 -26.0 55 0 0.02 0.3 T 2015-02-17 28 13 20.5 -15.7 44 0 0.24 3.4 4 2015-02-18 32 11 21.5 -15.0 43 0 0.00 T 3 2015-02-19 23 8 15.5 -21.2 49 0 0.00 0.0 1 2015-02-20 18 2 10.0 -26.9 55 0 0.00 0.0 T 2015-02-21 34 9 21.5 -15.6 43 0 0.76 4.8 T 2015-02-22 47 33 40.0 2.6 25 0 0.28 0.0 4 2015-02-23 37 13 25.0 -12.6 40 0 T T 1 2015-02-24 25 7 16.0 -21.8 49 0 0.00 0.0 1 2015-02-25 38 15 26.5 -11.6 38 0 0.00 0.0 T 2015-02-26 32 26 29.0 -9.3 36 0 T T 0 2015-02-27 31 22 26.5 -12.1 38 0 T T T 2015-02-28 32 16 24.0 -14.8 41 0 0.00 0.0 0 Of course, this carried over into March: 2015-03-01 32 21 26.5 -12.6 38 0 0.52 0.4 0 2015-03-02 40 29 34.5 -4.9 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-03-03 34 25 29.5 -10.1 35 0 0.61 0.1 0 2015-03-04 43 33 38.0 -1.9 27 0 0.49 0.0 0 2015-03-05 40 20 30.0 -10.2 35 0 0.78 7.5 T

If the January RONI is really at -1.3, then you can pretty much kiss any chance of an el nino next year goodbye. That's already approaching 2021-22 territory: OND 2021 -1.23 NDJ 2021 -1.24 DJF 2022 -1.21 JFM 2022 -1.21 FMA 2022 -1.28 MAM 2022 -1.34 2005-06 and 2008-09, both of which went el nino the following year, never went below -1 on the RONI.

Classic backloaded el nino winter. Cool September and October, then warm November, December, and most of January. The bottom fell out of the thermometer in February, our coldest this side of 1980 (until the historically cold February 2015). Then, after the Valentine's Day and St. Patrick's Day storms, we had our wettest April on record, including a wintry mix event on April 16.

Yeah, I'd rather have the Super Bowl win, even if it means a snowless rest of the winter. The Super Bowl is forever, whereas the snow from the storm will eventually melt.

I'm pretty sure Philly would wait for a sunny day to have the parade. Last time, it rained on the traditional Wednesday (the 7th), so the parade was held on Thursday the 8th instead. 2018-02-07 50 25 37.5 3.1 27 0 0.82 0.2 T 2018-02-08 36 27 31.5 -3.0 33 0 0.00 0.0 0

It wouldn't surprise me if 2025's PDO takes a similar path to 2013. Like we did at the end of 2024, there was a big PDO rise at the end of 2012 (before leveling out): 2012 -1.85 -1.35 -1.66 -1.01 -2.12 -1.63 -2.40 -2.60 -2.99 -1.22 -0.66 -1.31 2013 -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65 -1.09 -1.04 Of course, as we know, the leveling out was followed by the rise (and eventual flip to +PDO) in 2014: 2014 -0.57 -0.42 0.30 0.36 1.27 -0.28 0.25 0.34 0.76 1.43 1.35 1.86

If the last 2 storms happen, when are we going to have our parade for the Eagles Super Bowl victory?

In my trip to Boston this weekend, my valet ticket number was 033-041, which was the final score of Super Bowl LII, which the Eagles won. I guess is this a good omen that the Eagles will win the Super Bowl.

ikr, we had SSWs in Feb 1979 and Dec 2001/Feb 2002. Before the 1979 SSW, we had record cold and snowy weather. Afterwards, the pattern turned a lot warmer for March 1979, which was well above average temperaturewise. 2001-02 ended up being a record warm winter despite the 2 SSWs.

And then the abrupt end to winter. March 2010 was several degrees above average, and the first week of April was summerlike. A taste of what was to come, as the warmest summer on record followed.

It got down to 9F in Boston this morning. Yep, winter is not going away any time soon.

I'm up in Boston this morning. Currently 9F.

Mean temperature is 30.4F, or -2.5 departure of 1981-2010 normal.

January 2025 is the coldest January since 2014 at PHL. It is also the coldest month since February 2015.

January 2025 is the coldest January at PHL since 2014, holding off 2015 by a half-degree. It is also the coldest month since February 2015.

It's never to early to prepare for life post-Eagles Super Bowl victory/parade. Looks like we're getting an early jump on spring, as the first half of March looks very warm.

Early look for mid-March:

Our most recent Super Bowl Sunday snowstorm:

What effects will this have on our parade in a few weeks?

You can see the script playing out: Brandon Graham winning a 2nd Super Bowl title in his final game, while Carson Wentz watches on the sideline as his former team wins the Super Bowl quarterbacked by his former backup.

We do have precedent for that, and not too long ago. In 2022, we had a la nina that peaked in between seasons. 2021-22 RONI: JAS 2021 -0.71 ASO 2021 -0.92 SON 2021 -1.06 OND 2021 -1.23 NDJ 2021 -1.24 DJF 2022 -1.21 JFM 2022 -1.21 FMA 2022 -1.28 MAM 2022 -1.34 AMJ 2022 -1.22 MJJ 2022 -0.98 JJA 2022 -0.90

I don't think we got an official la nina in 1996-97. 1995-96 was the la nina, which of course was an epic snow season. 1996 also had snow events in March and early April. That said, those were +PDO years, and neither year is good analog for this year. Of course, in spring 1997 brought the super el nino that ended up being the finale of the +PDO era.

The GFS shows a possible snowstorm in the Feb 9-11 timeframe. After that looks like great weather for a parade.

If we're going to have an el nino next year, then the la nina has to retreat very soon. Both 2005-06 and 2008-09 la ninas reached peak values in DJF. 2005-06 RONI OND 2005 -0.50 NDJ 2005 -0.84 DJF 2006 -0.93 JFM 2006 -0.88 FMA 2006 -0.65 MAM 2006 -0.41 2008-09 RONI OND 2008 -0.60 NDJ 2008 -0.79 DJF 2009 -0.89 JFM 2009 -0.84 FMA 2009 -0.67 MAM 2009 -0.42 If you want the PDO to change any time soon, it's probably best to root for a continued la nina or ENSO neutral season in 2025-26. A flip to el nino after a late peaking la nina has historically flipped back to strong la nina in year 2 (see 2007-08 and 2010-11). I'm almost sure we aren't going +PDO if we have a strong la nina in 2026-27.