PhiEaglesfan712

80 degrees on 3/29/2025 was the best model forecast of the year:

Just like I did on 3/29/2025, when in doubt, go the the NWS, which says too warm for snow: Christmas Day A chance of rain before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night A chance of rain after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Night A chance of rain before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Saturday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

The miracle White Christmas in 1998. Temperatures really torched that month, with 2 days in the 70s in the first week, and temps in the mid-60s as late as the morning of the 22nd. Then, temperatures fell throughout the day, leading to the snowstorm on December 23-24, 1998.

I was in North Carolina Christmas weekend in 2021, and it was really warm. I even barbecued the 26th, and have the pictures to prove it:

Oh please, no March 2001. I would not wish that on any snow lover. I'd prefer March 2017 as an analog.

Does this mean an early start to spring?

2000-01 was the most disappointing in my lifetime. I know this one technically ended with above average snowfall, but the epic snow bust in early March left a very sour taste. Oh what could have been if the forecast had even come close to verifying.

Today is the 5th anniversary of the December 2020 snowstorm. This weekend's snowstorm was the biggest December snowstorm since then.

I was too young (about a year and a half), but the weather records show that the January 1990 average temperature was 15 degrees warmer than the December 1989 average temperature. That type of temperature jump is something you see from March -> April or April -> May. You don't see that in the dead of winter. It's like spring began in January that season.

The most obvious ones are the most recent: 2016-17 and 2022-23. In case you forgot, here's what happened the last time a dissipating la nina led into an el nino:

Previous years with similar ENSO/IOD/PDO patterns. They tend to have cool Decembers, but torch in January and February.

January and February are going to torch. 16-17 is probably the best analog. This could be a great snow season if you live in Syracuse. Not so much if you live in Atlantic City.

16-17 was generally a torch in January and February in the Eastern US. It just had a very odd distribution of snow. It was the snowiest season ever in Syracuse (almost 160 inches). But places like Baltimore and DC only got ~3 inches of snow. Talk about a very sharp cutoff. 08-09 is another weird one. Despite how cold October-January was, it would have went below average on snow without the KU on March 1-2.

Looks like it's completely in the center. That's a bullseye if we're playing darts.

World News Tonight got the year of the last December snowstorm wrong. It was in 2020, not 2018: https://x.com/ABCWorldNews/status/2000383451434774960 You would think this would be fact-checked before a major news organization like ABC airs it.

1995-1996 -> That one was a wall-to-wall great winter. 2000-2001 -> Okay winter overall, but left a very sour taste with the huge snow bust in March. 2005-2006 -> Very mild January, but a return to winter in February, highlighted by the snowstorm on the 11th-12th. March is mild. 2010-2011 -> Very cold and snowy January, turns milder in February, although a moderate snowfall happens around President's Day. No more snow after that, but we do get one last hurrah of well below average temperatures in late March. 2020-2021 -> January has no snow and above average temperatures until the last day of the month. February is cold and snowy. March is mild.

It seems like all the la nina/-ENSO years that end in 5 or 0 are cold in December. See 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. The only one one that wasn't cold was 2020, and we got a snowstorm mid-month.

Heck, even Atlantic City is getting snow. That's been hard to come to by the last 7-10 years.

Take it down a little south: This is really the first time since the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm that we got this type of storm track, where there is more snow towards the coastal areas.

Sorry guys, but the MJO isn't going back to phase 8. Get ready to learn phase 5.

If I remember correctly, the eastern end of the storm produced heavy snow, and caused the Metrodome roof collapse. The Vikings game got pushed back, but it wasn't enough to save the Brett Favre streak.

Yeah, we can't leave December without at least an inch or two of snow. Cold and snowless Decembers are the absolute worst. 2022-23 is a very good example. I can't remember a time when a cold and low snow December produced a great rest of the winter season.

88-89 was the strong la nina. 89-90 was a dissipating weaker la nina/cold neutral, and was firmly ENSO neutral by the time the winter was over. The IOD was still at -1.4 on November 24, pretty much comparable to 2016 and 2022, both of which were low snow winters at PHL, and torched in January and February. The mid-March snowstorm in 2017 kept that year from being another below 10 inch snowfall season at PHL, and we all know the disaster that 2022-23 was. Cold and low snow Decembers are the worst combination. They almost always produce torch Januarys and Februarys. Come to think of it, I can't remember a time when a cold and low snow December produced a great rest of the winter.

The yards being muddy is a good sign. That usually means the drought is coming to an end soon.