PhiEaglesfan712

Late February/early March 2015 comes to mind. Although, things turned warmer as the spring went on. May 2015 was near record warm. NYC Feb 2015: 23.9 -12.0 Mar 2015: 38.1 -4.7 Apr 2015: 54.3 +0.6 May 2015: 68.5 +5.3 I won't be surprised if one of the spring months was near record warm.

No, that was just the snow getting slushy and melting. My sister and I went for a walk on Monday afternoon. Someone didn't clean their pathway, so my sister walked slowly and carefully on it because she didn't want to get her sneakers dirty.

I'm starting to think February 23, 1987 is a good analog for this storm.

The problem with this is that there is limited cold air and the sun angle. It will likely be all rain, that is if we even have precipitation.

There's always next winter. I just hope the PDO turns positive, more so than an el nino.

It feels like curtains on the winter. With the sun angle increasing, it's only going to get tougher to get the cold air necessary for a snowstorm.

These will not verify. The problem is that there is limited cold air, and the increasing sun angle. I guarantee there will be more >60 highs than <40 highs during the first week of March. No way we see a temp of 25 at 1 pm on March 3 in NYC. That's like record low territory.

That's the most recent one. The 3-4 week gets updated weekly (on Fridays), so the next update is on Feb 20 (for March 7-20).

The CPC disagrees, as the first half of March looks warm:

I'm not sure if anyone posted this yet, but the MEI for January was -0.8

I never thought it would be a MA storm, and that's probably is a good thing for NYC and PHL. If this turns out to be a MA storm, then NYC and PHL will get close to nothing.

Yeah, the further south you went, the more disappointing the storm was. Amazing how the snow was pretty much all in the first 10 days. The pattern totally flipped in March, and of course, we had record warm temperatures during the entire spring and summer.

The ones I'm more surprised about are 1995-96, 2003-04, 2010-11, and 2013-14. Those were almost wall-to-wall cold in December-February, and I know all of these winters did 40+ inches in NYC. No way 2018-19 was colder than all of those. If anything 18-19 was near average temperaturewise December-February (though November and March were well below average).

What do you mean by debbie downer? I was saying 4-6 inches for this area. By the way, here was that snowstorm:

Phase 3 is still cold in late February. I think exiting 3/entering 4 is the sweet spot for a snow event, though the pattern should change for the warmer after the event.

I have that as the top analog for this storm. It feels like a last hurrah, and I think it's going to be a historic one in NYC, while PHL gets a good 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA get near nothing.

My top analog is 2/26/2010. Feels like a last hurrah (after a brief warm-up), and I think this will miss just north, with NYC having a historic snowstorm, while PHL gets 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA gets close to nothing, as the winter is pretty much over in those cities.

94-95 being warm and virtually snowless (with the exception of February), despite being a moderate el nino, shows how things were screwed up after Pinatubo. 92-93 was the backloaded winter with the Storm of the Century in mid-March, while 93-94 and 95-96 were wall-to-wall cold and snowy.

We do it again a month later. 1957-58 was a historical snow season. 2009-10 might have beaten it in terms of total snowfall, but the cold and snowy weather lingered a lot longer in 57-58. In 09-10, winter was long over by the time we got to the vernal equinox, and we were already 90 degrees by the first week of April. We didn't get that until at least late June, maybe early July, in 1958.

I said it was coming in March and April. That hasn't changed.

I don't think so. The winter started to flip after Snowmageddon. I believe we had a rain storm the 22nd, and one small snow event on the 26th. After that, it was essentially spring. (By the time we got to the first week of April, we had 90 degree temps on the 6th and 7th, completing one of the most impressive weather flips ever.) I think 2014 had a better chance of the snow staying that long. That was a year that we got snowstorm after snowstorm from the beginning of January to mid-March.

The fact that we even got snow from clippers this year is a step in the right direction. We haven't really had any pan out in the last 20 years before that, since the big one on January 22, 2005 that turned into a Nor'easter. I was starting to think snow from clippers were a thing of the past.

The result is going to define the rest of the season. If we do get the 6-10 inch snow solution, I feel the winter might stay a little longer. If it ends up being rain or nothing, then I think the winter is winding down.

2020 was a warm and essentially snowless winter, which reversed to the mean, and turned cold in April and May. Same with 2023, which turned cold in May and June. We have nothing like that like this year. If we regress to the mean this year, it will be more like 2010, 2011, and 2015. All of those were cold and snowy winters, which turned warm in the spring. Yeah, none of this is going to happen. Polar vortex disruptions don't happen 2 weeks apart this late in the season. We're at best only going to get one of these.

Not going to happen. The first half of March is really the latest it could get potentially snowy. By the time you get to the 2nd half of March, the sun angle is too high. Yes, you could still get a snowstorm in the second half of March (like in 1958 or 2018), but you need a lot of things to come together. Besides, in 1958 and 2018, you had snow events leading up to the big second half of March snowstorm. If we don't get a snow event in the 2nd half of February, it just might not happen. Winter doesn't magically return in the 2nd half of March.