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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    2020 was a warm and essentially snowless winter, which reversed to the mean, and turned cold in April and May. Same with 2023, which turned cold in May and June. We have nothing like that like this year. If we regress to the mean this year, it will be more like 2010, 2011, and 2015. All of those were cold and snowy winters, which turned warm in the spring. Yeah, none of this is going to happen. Polar vortex disruptions don't happen 2 weeks apart this late in the season. We're at best only going to get one of these.
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    Not going to happen. The first half of March is really the latest it could get potentially snowy. By the time you get to the 2nd half of March, the sun angle is too high. Yes, you could still get a snowstorm in the second half of March (like in 1958 or 2018), but you need a lot of things to come together. Besides, in 1958 and 2018, you had snow events leading up to the big second half of March snowstorm. If we don't get a snow event in the 2nd half of February, it just might not happen. Winter doesn't magically return in the 2nd half of March.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    Nope
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    10 or 46 is probably the most likely outcome, considering how most of the storm tracks have gone this year.
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    Not really, peope were just happy to see any type of snow in March 2017. It pretty much saved the season. Without it, 2016-17 would have been just another BN snowfall season to go along with a torch winter.
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    The Euro shows a COD.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    Thanks for the idea @JTA66
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    Before the season, I called for a BN December (verified), but AN January and February (bust). When I saw the late season was not going to verify, I revised the forecast to BN February (looks better), AN March and April (TBD). AN March seems like a lock if the MJO to phase 6 to begin March verifies.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    NYC Feb 2015: 23.9 -12.0 Mar 2015: 38.1 -4.7 Apr 2015: 54.3 +0.6 May 2015: 68.5 +5.3
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    Those are exactly my thoughts for the rest of the month, though I'm not sure if it rains 2/19-20. It does turn warm to begin March (with us entering MJO Phase 6), and we should get our first 60+ during the first week of March.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    Historical snow seasons have ended early. 2009-10 in Baltimore or DC is a perfect example. Baltimore had 80 inches of snow at this point in 2010 following Snowmageddon, and it didn't really snow again after that. [In fact, it reached 90 during the first week of April.] For NYC, that was 2010-11. It didn't stop snowing, but there was a huge drop off after January. Only 5.8 inches of snow fell after January (with only 4.2 inches after this point).
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    I do have to agree with @NEG NAO's maps of late February. I think there is a small window of opportunity for cold (and maybe a snowstorm) in the final week of February, but this will be like threading the needle. However, it is not going to last, as the MJO is heading towards phase 6 in the last days of February or the first days of March. That's the worst phase for cold and snow. Those hoping for a 3rd act 4/7/2003 snowstorm, I just don't see it in the cards this spring.
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    That's roughly the short window of opportunity, if there is going to be any snow remaining in this season. Once you get back, we're going to be in MJO Phase 6, and that will be all she wrote for this winter.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    I did hint, after a very warm March and April, that May could be a cooler to average temperaturewise and rainy month.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    All those were historical winters: 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.4 2010-2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 0.0 0.0 61.9 2014-2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.3
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    Also March is going to start out in MJO Phase 6. Good luck trying to get a cold/snowy pattern out of that.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    3/2-3/8 and 3/9-3/15 being AN shouldn't really be a surprise. The MJO is going to be in phase 6 to begin March, which is normally a torch phase for early March.
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    That snow event on May 9 showed the wasted potential of 1977. That could have been an all-time season if March and April didn't torch. As it stands, 1976-77 was a record cold fall and winter.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    The first half to 2/3 were warm, with 60s and 70s in the middle of the month. That last week to 10 days were a return to winter, so the month ended NN. April-July 2011 was an absolute torch, culminating with all-time record highs on 7/22.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    Same with me, and yes, March was below average temperaturewise, a continuation of a historically cold February (almost like how this February BN is a continuation of January). But as we know, things even out over time, and May 2015 was near record warm. I'm seeing the same progression here. We don't go months on end BN, like we did in 95-96, with no really good reason.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months. Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean. It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    It seems obvious that the winter is coming to an end faster than anyone wants to admit. The best chance for snow and cold is the next 2 weeks. Once we get to March, I don't see any sustained BN until at least May.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    It was 20 years ago today (Sgt. Pepper taught the band to play)... the February 2006 snowstorm:
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    If the detail about the cold source being minimal is true, especially after the cold streak that just happened, then the winter is just about over. The beginning of March is going to really torch, and by the time we get below average temperatures again (if we even do), it will be too late for snow.
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