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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yep, the pattern turns back to colder in February. As I said all along: cool December, very warm January, and cool February.
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    Zero percent chance of this happening. The winter of 2002-03 was close to once in a lifetime. Climate has changed a lot between then and now. We haven't had a clipper since January 22-23, 2005 (that was nearly 20 years ago). Besides, the winter of 2002-03 came at the end of a yearlong drought. The current drought is barely a month old, and in fact, we're closer to where we were heading into the winter of 2001-02. There's a better chance at a 01-02 redux than a 02-03 redux.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think we're more likely to get a 05-06 or 20-21. I still have hope for a cold and snowy February.
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    Looks like we will be in MJO 7 for the first half of January, MJO 8 for the second half of January, and MJO 1/2 in February.
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    Does the Bills game still get played on Sunday night, or will it get postponed?
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    Our best chance is a snow event the first week of December, a la 2005 or 2007. I feel like the snow will be shut off for a while after that. For sure, the second half of December and most of January is going to be very warm. We just have to hope it flips back in late January or February (2006 and 2021 are good examples).
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    To be brutally honest, if the global tropics were averaging +4.5C, I'd be more worried about if the planet was still habitable. For sure, where I currently live would be in the Atlantic Ocean if we reached that point. If the planet was still habitable, I'd probably have moved to West Antarctica by that point. (And if the global tropics averaging +4.5C and Nino +2.3C scenario happened while I am still living, I'd probably be looking at Eric Webb's Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index to see if he classified it a strong el nino or a strong la nina.)
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    But 1992 gives us a precedent for strong/borderline super el nino event not going la nina though, correct?
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    For the record, I'd gladly take a 1992-93 type winter. That one was backloaded (of course, highlighted by the Blizzard in mid-March), with January being the very warm month. In this 2024-25 climate, I highly doubt we get a blizzard of that magnitude in mid-March. It would probably fall down as mostly rain. That's probably the winter version of Hurricane Sandy.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    But we do have a similar precedent for this with 1992 not going la nina (even if it was affected by Mt. Pinatubo, and the global temperatures are ~1C warmer now than in 1992). 1991-92 was a similar el nino strength as 2023-24 (maybe even stronger).
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    There seems to be a shift with the recent strong el ninos. The 2015-16 and 2023-24 el ninos didn't drop below -0.5C. (This is the first time that two consecutive strong el ninos didn't drop below -0.5 since the 1957-58 and 1965-66 el ninos.) That differs from the 1972 to 2011 period, when all strong el ninos (+1.5) dropped below the -0.5C threshold, except 1991-92. 1957-58 -> no 1965-66 -> no 1972-73 -> yes (strong la nina 1973-74) 1982-83 -> yes 1986-88 -> yes (strong la nina 1988-89) 1991-92 -> no 1997-98 -> yes (strong la nina 1998-2000) 2010-11 -> yes (strong la nina 2010-11) 2015-16 -> no 2023-24 -> no
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    I don't consider 2023-24 a super el nino. The RONI never reached 1.5 and the MEI only had one bimonthly at 1 (basically a weak el nino like 2006-07). 1991-92 has a better case for a super el nino, as it reached +2 on both the RONI and MEI. If included, 1992 would be a precedent year (since it never went to la nina, and in fact stayed an el nino on the MEI until 1995).
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think rapidly increasing climate change is a huge factor in the difference between the 2005-2014 -PDO cycle compared to the current -PDO cycle. Keep in mind, 2009-10 and 2023-24 had similar ENSO states, yet 2009-10 was a cold and very snowy winter, while 2023-24 was a very warm winter. I think the Earth being 0.5C warmer in 2023-24, compared to 2009-10, is a huge reason for the differences.
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    August 21, 2017: United States total solar eclipse Week 14: Eagles star QB Carson Wentz suffers season-ending injury against the Rams in LA. Eagles win Super Bowl LII April 8, 2024: United States total solar eclipse Week 12: Eagles star DE Brandon Graham suffers season-ending injury against the Rams in LA. Eagles win Super Bowl LIX confirmed!
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    I don't think we'll get a 89-90 scenario. November 1989 was cold, and it was already snowing by Thanksgiving. I think we'll more likely get another 2005-06 or maybe a 2020-21. Both were warm Novembers that turned cold at the beginning of December. Both years had a warm period in the middle of the winter, but reverted back to being colder and more snowy in February.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    Funny, NWS Mt. Holly posted about this in June: https://x.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/1797327260162396478 Weather still happens. Climate change is an average. The average temperature has gone up 2 degrees since then, so these readings from 1925 would likely be about 2 degrees higher if the same heat wave happened today. That would've meant five 100-degree days instead of just two. https://x.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/1797424229769785685 2011 was the last time it passed 100 at Lehigh Valley International Airport. Despite that, the average temperature is still 2 degrees hotter than it was 99 years ago.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    December 2017 was cold too, and that carried over into the start of January 2018. That one didn't really moderate until mid-January. Of course, we know about the absolute torch of February 2018, which skewed the winter into above average temperatures. That said, I don't see this winter ending up like 2010-11 or 2017-18. I think a 2020-21 type winter is more likely.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    I feel like it's going to just be the first half of December. I see us turning to a warmer than average pattern during the 2nd half of December, which will last through, at the very least, most of January. I think the big question is whether the pattern will revert back to colder than average in late January or early February, but that's way too early to tell at this point.
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think we're more likely to get a 2020-21 type season, rather than a 2010-11 or 2017-18 (both of which were cold through most of December and January). I think the 2nd half of December and most of January is going to be warm. The big question is if, like in 2021, it turns back to a colder than average pattern in late January or early February.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    December 4 or 5 seems to be the sweet spot, especially in the 2000s (see 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2007). 2013 was December 8 and 2017 was December 9. I have been hinting at colder than average temperatures and a major snowstorm during the first week of December.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    The first half of December looks cold. The second half of December and most of January is going to be warm. I still think there's a chance that it turns back to a colder than average pattern in late January or early February. I think it's going to be a 2020-21 like season, but with the temperature departures amplified.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    This is in regards to 12-13, not 13-14, right? Because 2012 was an active hurricane season, 2013 not so much.
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    A little more south and a lot of locations had less than an inch of snow in 19-20. PHL had 17.1" of snow in 18-19 and 0.3" in 19-20, while ACY had 17.8" in 18-19 and 0.5" in 19-20.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    Pretty funny how both 2017-18 and 2018-19 ended with the same DJF temperature for PHL. I'll take the highs of 2017-18 over the consistency of 2018-19. But no way am I ever going to take 2019-20 over 2018-19. 19-20 is just another 11-12. I'm taking a winter with consistent cold shots and small snowstorms like 18-19 (and running) any day over a wall-to-wall torch, snowless winter like 11-12 or 19-20. At least we got some of the big October 2011 snowstorm. We were shut out in December 2019.
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    In retrospect, 2018-19 wasn't that bad of a winter, considering the one that followed it. 18-19 was a nickels and dimes winter in the mid-Atlantic, but it was probably the one that provided the most consistent cold shots/snow of all the winters post-2015. Yes, 2017-18 and 2020-21 had more snow, but both of them either had an extended warm period (February for 17-18) or snow shutoff (late December-end of January 20-21). 18-19 is still the coldest Nov-Mar period in PHL post-2015. 1/31/2019 was the last time I really had to layer up. If you want to see an all-around disaster winter, there's 2019-20.
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